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re: ESPN releases their 2022 preseason FPI
Posted on 4/14/22 at 1:48 pm to SoFunnyItsNot
Posted on 4/14/22 at 1:48 pm to SoFunnyItsNot
quote:
remember AFTER LSU won the title in 2019... they weren't even ranked #1 on the FPI And that was after a top 3 season ever with the best offense of all time
SP+ didn’t have LSU #1 either. It’s a predictive model, not a ranking. LSU’s defense had a midseason skid that it couldn’t overcome in the model. Everyone agrees that if LSU played the whole season the way they played vs aTm, UGa and in the playoffs they’d have easily been #1. But when you give up 38 to vandy and 400 rushing yards to Ole Miss your defensive efficiency drops like a rock and it skews your overall numbers a bit.
From Bill Connelly (creator of SP+, IMO a much better version of FPI):
In the Tigers' last four games, their average per-game SP+ percentile rating was 99%. Play like that all year, and you're the greatest team of all time. As it stands, their midseason defensive funk (driven in part by injuries) dragged their full-season numbers down to that of a merely tremendous team.
1
Posted on 4/14/22 at 2:00 pm to Not Cooper
The preseason FPI uses the results of the last 4 seasons. It’s a garbage way to do rankings before a game is played.
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