re: #tAuburnBasketball Thread

good looking out, bro

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What do you guys expect from him this year?

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MCT probably can give the best breakdown, but based on what I've heard combined w/ personal opinion, here is how I see our team


Starting Lineup / 2nd Team

PG - Harper / Mitchell
SG - Heron / Brown
SF - Purifoy / Malik Dunbar
PF** - Desean Murray / Okeke / Spencer
C - Austin Wiley / McLemore / Spencer

**- Who starts / sees minutes between Murray/Okeke likely depends on opponent lineup + if AU is going big or small. Seems most likely however that Murray/Wiley get paired together given Murray's size + McLemore/Spencer being undersized Cs




PGs

Jared Harper

Playing Time: 25+ mpg

What We've Heard:

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"Jared is taking more of a leadership role,"
Jared Harper had another great floor game with his assist/turnover ratio." - Horace Spencer

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What I expect: 6 ppg, 5 apg

I expect Harper to start at PG, get ~60% of the minutes. Based on talk + Italy results, Harper looks more willing to distribute the ball.


Davion Mitchell

Playing Time: 15-20mpg (some split at SG)

What We've Heard:

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"Davion Mitchell's ability to defend and finish and score and pick up on what we do has been really impressive."

"Mitchell can be a superstar, I just worry about his shooting right now" - Source from multiple practices

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What I expect: 5 ppg, 4apg, best on ball defender

I don't think this is Mitchell's year to breakout. He should flash incredible potential, but his poor shooting + inexperience will hold him back. He likely contributes best as a spark plug off the bench + his skillset meshes extremely well w/ our second team

When facing teams with elite and/or long primary ball handlers, I expect Mitchell to see his minutes increase

SG


Mustapha Heron - 30+ MPG (split SG/ "SF/3")

What We Hear- He's good, nothing of note

What I expect- 18+ ppg, 6rpg 2apg

Heron has potential to have a Sindarious Thornwell season. He will lead the team in minutes, usage and is generally great in his all around game.

Heron needs to make a better effort distributing the ball to truly take a step forward though. His KenPom assist rate of 9.6 was easily worst amongst AU's backcourt last year.

Bryce Brown - 20-25 mpg

What We Hear:

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"Bryce Brown offensively and defensively played better. Surprisingly we scored more with the form of what we do."-Bruce

Brown averaged a team-high 18.3 points and scored at least 20 points three times while shooting 47.2 percent from 3-point range.

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What I expect: 12-14ppg, 2apg, 45+ 3FG%

I've always been super pro Bryce Brown. While I expect him off the bench, I believe he will play a critical role for us

Bryce has shown at times to be a high quality on ball defender, he has supposedly taken on some ball handling responsibilities + more consistent shooting in SEC play + Italy.

SF / 3



Danjel Purifoy - 25-30mpg

What We've Heard/ Seen:

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Purifoy showed more willingness to drive to the basket - AU highlights Italy trip

Purifoy not there quite yet but showing improvement defense/rebounding - Practice Source

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What I expect: 12-14 ppg , 5 rpg

I expect Purifoy's game to look more balanced last year. After his ankle injury, he basically stopped attacking the rim. Based on practice observations + Italy highlights it looks like he is going to be more aggressive offensively.

On defense, he was a defensive dumpster fire post injury. Problem was, he was still poor pre injury. I expect him to improve defensively but think it still will be his weakness

Malik Dunbar - 10-15mpg

What We Hear: Not too much, hasn't been at AU for a month yet. Very athletic though

What I expect: 4-6ppg, 3rpg

His role to be limited to rotational player. Purifoy should dominate the SF minutes, hard to see Dunbar being more than a true backup for Purifoy


PF/ 4



Desean Murray - 15-20+ mpg

What We Hear:

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Paraphrasing Bruce's comments:
-Plays much bigger than he is
-Natural position is the 4

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What I expect: 8 ppg, 6rpg

Desean should be a free throw & layup making Cinnmeon Bowers. The guy is undersized but he clearly has elite post skills as an undersized post player.

Chuma Okeke - 15-20+ mpg

What We Hear:

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Chuma Okeke was dominant - Bruce

"It’s very overwhelming and it can be stressful at times when you honestly don’t know the play and it’s called in practice" - Okeke

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What I expect: 5 ppg 6-8 rpg

Okeke should look like a more skilled McLemore from last year, his contributions most obvious on defense/rebounding. He should provide solid post defense at the 4 + a huge rebounding improvement. I don't believe offensively he is developed enough to be a primary option and/or create for himself. Most of his scoring will be offensive rebound put backs and/or dump passes off teammates driving



Horace Spencer - 10-15 mpg (split 4 & 5)

What We Hear:

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Spencer has worked/improved shooting while injured. Has even hit some contested 3s (I'll believe it when I see it)

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What I expect: 3-5ppg, 3-5 rpg, 2bpg

I see Spencer falling back in the pecking order but finding minutes due to his ability to play both the 4 & 5.

If Spencer really can hit mid rangeing and/or 3s when open, I can see him earning more minutes. He has a ton of potential/athleticism, but he has not shown much in terms skill development since arriving unfortunately.


C

Austin Wiley- 15-25mpg

What We Hear:

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Wiley has dropped ~ 3-5% Body Fat

UK Beat Writer @ Team USA tryouts: "Wiley is a beast"
Coach Cal: "I'm going to take a kid and prepare him to beat us"

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What I expect: 10-15ppg, 6-8rpg

Stress fractures for big men are extremely scary. So with a soft OOC schedule, I don't see Wiley playing significant minutes until the Charleston Classic at the earliest. Even when he is fully healthy it is a mistake to play him >20-25mpg. He will contribute more by keeping him "fresh" during the game + it will pay dividends down the stretch of SEC play


Assuming he gets back to health, he should be a dominant player. I still have concerns about his hands / shooting. He shot a low FG % for a post player during Team USA


Anfernee McLemore - 15-20mpg

What We Hear-

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He has been working hard on his outside shooting (old quote), “I work on it a lot,” McLemore said. “And whenever Coach Pearl calls my name, that’s when I’ll unveil it.”

-Multiple double doubles in Italy

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What I Expect - 6-8 ppg, 6 rpg


McLemore is still extremely raw, but he works his tail off. I think this year he sees a solid amount of minutes as a great role player.

We probably see him show flashes of an offensive game shooting, creating shots in the post and just being an offensive weapon. Just don't expect him to be ready to do that consistently

Man, awesome info. Thanks

Scout put up an article with Chuma Okeke ranked #4 in impact freshman in SEC

L Jan. 2 (Tue.) at Tennessee
W Jan. 6 (Sat.) Arkansas
W Jan. 9 (Tue.) Ole Miss
L Jan. 13 (Sat.) at Mississippi State
L Jan. 17 (Wed.) at Alabama
W Jan. 20 (Sat.) Georgia
W Jan. 24 (Wed.) at Missouri
W Jan. 27 (Sat.) LSU
W Jan. 30 (Tue.) at Ole Miss
W Feb. 3 (Sat.) Vanderbilt
L Feb. 7 (Wed.) Texas A&M
W Feb. 10 (Sat.) at Georgia
L Feb. 14 (Wed.) Kentucky
L Feb. 17 (Sat.) at South Carolina
W Feb. 21 (Wed.) Alabama
L Feb. 24 (Sat.) at Florida
L Feb. 27 (Tue.) at Arkansas
W Mar. 3 (Sat.) South Carolina

That's 10-8 right there which is probably conservative

I don't see us sweeping Ole Miss. They are stout in the backcourt

Yeah that might have been wishful thinking but their front court should be weak which I think gives us a big edge on them

But we've lost 10 straight to them and it has to end somewhere right?

Yep. We're balanced

Seems legit