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re: AU BBall Thread : Trainwrecked at 18-14
Posted on 2/9/17 at 9:28 am to GoCrazyAuburn
Posted on 2/9/17 at 9:28 am to GoCrazyAuburn
quote:
GoCrazyAuburn
Just looking out for you. Purifoy said he'd wear one next game after I tweeted him w this picture
2
Posted on 2/9/17 at 9:31 am to GenesChin
If Purifoy starts playing better after rocking a sleeve, I'm taking credit for eternity.
If he plays like shite, I'll pretend I never said anything
If he plays like shite, I'll pretend I never said anything
Posted on 2/9/17 at 9:43 am to GenesChin
The evidence is irrefutable
Posted on 2/9/17 at 9:47 am to GoCrazyAuburn
quote:
The evidence is irrefutable
We should start a sleeve tradition, similar to USC with jersey numbers.
Need a 3Sleeve + PowerSleeve, give the honor/privilege of wearing it to the players who earn it
Posted on 2/9/17 at 9:50 am to GenesChin
Absolutely. We actually would get tired of the winning.
Posted on 2/9/17 at 9:55 am to GoCrazyAuburn
You're right, the idea would work too well
Got to spice it up with some losses sometime to keep us on our toes
Got to spice it up with some losses sometime to keep us on our toes
Posted on 2/9/17 at 1:00 pm to GenesChin
According to RPI forecast, we are absolutely screwed RPI wise to close out the season.
if we finish 23-11 or 23-10, our peak RPI is still only around #45
if we finish 23-11 or 23-10, our peak RPI is still only around #45
Posted on 2/9/17 at 1:45 pm to GenesChin
If I am reading their history graph correctly, AU has been very consistent in being above is expected rpi all season. Hopefully, that trend plays out in the end.
Posted on 2/9/17 at 3:27 pm to PearlJam
We almost for sure will finish above their expected RPI. They use Sagarin probabilities of victory
Adv metrics hate us since we consistently blow 20+pt wins to win by 5. Almost all essentially use scoring margin or some proxy as an indicator of team quality
For example, KenPom ranks Auburn as #5 nationally in the "luck" measurement. Essentially saying Auburn is extremely lucky to be sitting on their current win total based on their actual play
If you were to look at Auburn win probabilities during the course of games however, you'd see that most games Kenpom would view as "luck" /tossup were safely in the bag the entire game
Adv metrics hate us since we consistently blow 20+pt wins to win by 5. Almost all essentially use scoring margin or some proxy as an indicator of team quality
For example, KenPom ranks Auburn as #5 nationally in the "luck" measurement. Essentially saying Auburn is extremely lucky to be sitting on their current win total based on their actual play
If you were to look at Auburn win probabilities during the course of games however, you'd see that most games Kenpom would view as "luck" /tossup were safely in the bag the entire game
Posted on 2/9/17 at 3:29 pm to GenesChin
Yea, I've looked into the KenPom ranking system and it is pretty crappy. I get what they are trying to do, but any ranking that has a "luck" factor loses all credibility
Posted on 2/9/17 at 3:45 pm to GoCrazyAuburn
quote:
but any ranking that has a "luck" factor loses all credibility
There is no "Luck" factor in the rankings. You need to read how he does them before you criticize
Luck is just the deviation in win% from actual results vs kenpom ranking results
Posted on 2/9/17 at 4:24 pm to GenesChin
I have read them. He has a bunch of different ranking systems. I understand the main one he uses is the adjusted margin.
His luck ranking is just plain stupid pure and simple.
I also have an issue with predictive based efficiency rankings. And don't necessarily agree with their home court methodology.
His luck ranking is just plain stupid pure and simple.
I also have an issue with predictive based efficiency rankings. And don't necessarily agree with their home court methodology.
This post was edited on 2/9/17 at 4:25 pm
Posted on 2/9/17 at 5:54 pm to GenesChin
quote:
KenPom ranks Auburn as #5 nationally in the "luck" measurement.
No wonder KenPom blows.
Posted on 2/9/17 at 6:53 pm to GoCrazyAuburn
His luck ranking is simply a ranking of biggest errors in the model. Stupid to call it luck but it isn't a big deal that he puts it out there
Posted on 2/9/17 at 7:00 pm to GenesChin
quote:
His luck ranking is simply a ranking of biggest errors in the model. Stupid to call it luck but it isn't a big deal that he puts it out there
I was about to say that. It's a bad label but not a bad metric imo
Posted on 2/10/17 at 12:29 pm to GenesChin
Posted on 2/10/17 at 1:03 pm to AU24
Surprising that Jerry is showing some love considering how he has never once done that for football projections. Having us as a first four out kind of team is kind of a safe pick though, since Auburn getting to 20+ post SECT play looks likely.
We need to get to total 23 wins, we have an outside shot at 22W
We need to get to total 23 wins, we have an outside shot at 22W
This post was edited on 2/10/17 at 1:04 pm
Posted on 2/10/17 at 1:10 pm to GenesChin
The NCAA tournament would've been great and is still possible but we cannot even inbound the ball. Getting extra practice by the NIT is going to be just as helpful as going to the tournament. And without a doubt, next year the expectations will and should be NCAA tournament.
Posted on 2/10/17 at 3:21 pm to ChexMix
quote:
At some point before the season is over, will you fricking update the OP? TIA
Posted on 2/10/17 at 5:38 pm to autodd03
Ole Miss line is at AU v -4.5 Ole Miss
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