re: SOGa+ College Football Rankings & Picks - Week 7

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Besides the obvious Bama related questions, I got a few CFB questions about your model if you don't mind

1. How did Air Force go from being in the 40-50s to now top 10?

I understand that they're wildly efficient in MW play but that close Sam Houston State win has to tank them down, don't you think?

2. How does ST factor in your rankings?

3. Do you have any team that you believe will surge up the rankings by the end of the year?

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Happy to try my best!

1. Two things - one, the formula last week that undercounted points per drive really hurt them, because they lead the country in points per drive at something like 4.5 or some other absurd number. So, in reality, they probably should have been in the top 25 last week. The SoS stuff is really difficult with teams who have played 0 good teams. If you took out SoS adjustment, Air Force would be #2 in offense and #21 in defense.

As for the Sam Houston game, their bad efficiency in that game just goes to show how insanely efficient they've bene in all the others.

Available Yards/Pt Per Dr
SHSU - 36%, 1.44
Utah St - 74%, 5.57
SJSU - 83%, 5.43
SDSU - 90% (insane), 5.83

So, with all that said, it's hard to evaluate them. Personally I'd say that number is probably way too high, but it's really hard to find a way to get the math to say that because there just aren't variables available. If they keep playing perfect offensive games against their schedule, they'll stay up there. But because the SoS will drag them down, they'll have to be nearly perfect.


2. The best way to describe the weight of Special Teams is that a the worst ST in the country loses their team 3 pts a game and the best ST in the country gains 3 pts a game, per the rankings. Clemson is 131st in ST and it drags them down 2.6 pts. Alabama is 6th in ST and gains us 1.8 pts. So, in theory, if Alabama and Clemson played, the special teams for both teams end in a net gain of 4.4 pts for Alabama.

3. It's hard to say. Everybody is so inconsistent and teams outside the top 10 or so are all so bunched up. Mississippi State is #59 (+1.22 > avg) and they are only 8 pts below Auburn (+9.25) who is #30. So if Auburn and State play in Starkville Auburn would be a 5 pt favorite (3 pts for HF). It's just kind of a crap shoot.

I'd say Penn State at #13, probably. They just haven't really played anyone and their offense hasn't been forced to really get after it, yet.

On the flip side, Air Force obviously and I think Notre Dame and Maryland will drop as time passes.