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re: Alabama Board Coronavirus Thread
Posted on 6/11/20 at 10:54 am to TidalSurge1
Posted on 6/11/20 at 10:54 am to TidalSurge1
Oh they definitely will
0
Posted on 6/11/20 at 11:01 am to gumpinmizzou
Testing has been relatively flat for the past six weeks relative to the number of new cases.
The 7 day average of new cases has jumped from ~180 on 5/1 to ~530 today. However, the 7 day average for the number of tests reported each day has actually remained flat during this same time period (~6,400 on 5/14 to ~6,200 on 6/10).
The 7 day average of new cases has jumped from ~180 on 5/1 to ~530 today. However, the 7 day average for the number of tests reported each day has actually remained flat during this same time period (~6,400 on 5/14 to ~6,200 on 6/10).
Posted on 6/12/20 at 4:12 pm to mre
Another 860ish cases added today. Hopefully hospitalization stays under control.
Posted on 6/12/20 at 4:24 pm to gumpinmizzou
Montgomery has had by far the most cases in the last week.
Posted on 6/13/20 at 5:53 pm to 1BamaRTR
quote:
Michael Mina
@michaelmina_lab
New seroprevalence study from Switzerland:
Among ~36,000 sero positive cases in people under 50 years old in Switzerland, 2 deaths were detected (neither below 20 years).
That’s a 0.005% mortality rate in those under 50.
3 orders of magnitude lower than people over 65 years.
Posted on 6/14/20 at 6:53 am to Bobby OG Johnson
With cities burning, nobody noticed it but the peer reviewed big papers by that Harvard professor that caused the study on Trump's malaria drug to be halted have both been withdrawn and the WHO has restarted trials with the drug.
Turns out the data he used was corrupt, unreliable, and quite possibly outright fabricated. They guy collecting the data apparently even had results of cases in Africa - when there were virtually no reported cases in Africa. Now he's claiming 'secret' agreements with his sources prevent him from either identifying his sources or letting anyone see his raw data. He won't even name a single facility involved.
Yet this study passed peer review.
To their credit, the New York Times reported the story but it is completely absent from some of the big MSM sites. Since this is a politics free tread, I won't speculate why something so obviously flawed passed the peer review process so many cling to as a gold standard or why Mainstream Sources of News Based Content don't mention the retraction at all despite spending significant time on the studies when they came out.
Anyhow, there are still a lot of doctors (my personal GP included who is a no-nonsense, apolitical, medicine is his thing guy) who think the stuff really helps if given early. Be interesting to see if the restarted studies can first keep the politics out and second what they find.
Turns out the data he used was corrupt, unreliable, and quite possibly outright fabricated. They guy collecting the data apparently even had results of cases in Africa - when there were virtually no reported cases in Africa. Now he's claiming 'secret' agreements with his sources prevent him from either identifying his sources or letting anyone see his raw data. He won't even name a single facility involved.
Yet this study passed peer review.
To their credit, the New York Times reported the story but it is completely absent from some of the big MSM sites. Since this is a politics free tread, I won't speculate why something so obviously flawed passed the peer review process so many cling to as a gold standard or why Mainstream Sources of News Based Content don't mention the retraction at all despite spending significant time on the studies when they came out.
Anyhow, there are still a lot of doctors (my personal GP included who is a no-nonsense, apolitical, medicine is his thing guy) who think the stuff really helps if given early. Be interesting to see if the restarted studies can first keep the politics out and second what they find.
Posted on 6/14/20 at 8:48 am to JustGetItRight
It does help if given early. I’ve seen it firsthand. The real issue here is clinical decisions were made based on this bullshite study. The author needs to be banned from publishing for letting a personal agenda (whatever it was, money, politics)distort scientific research. He quite probably cost some their lives.
Posted on 6/14/20 at 9:20 am to phil4bama
quote:
It does help if given early. I’ve seen it firsthand.
My doc says the same thing.
quote:
The real issue here is clinical decisions were made based on this bull shite study. The author needs to be banned from publishing for letting a personal agenda (whatever it was, money, politics)distort scientific research. He quite probably cost some their lives.
The author isn't really the problem. People write 'scientific' research papers that are flawed and based on bad data all the time.
The problem here is that these (there were TWO) were supposedly peer reviewed. Those peer reviewers are the ones to blame for this getting accepted as valid studies, publicized widely, and used as the basis for treatment and study decisions.
If real, legitimate studies (is is possible to do one in the current environment?) validate that there are benefits then there's no doubt it did - but again the studies and usage weren't stopped because some Harvard professor published a paper using sketchy sources. Those things happened because supposedly unbiased reviewers tasked with validating the methods and sources utterly failed to do their jobs.
Whether they did it because they trusted the author, are incompetent, or because the papers reached a conclusion the reviewers wanted to be true (I'd bet it was 60% trust and 40% they were happy with the result) doesn't really matter. They failed to do even rudimentary checking. They're the ones that killed people. Their names should be published, they should be barred from conducting peer review in the future, and any works they've reviewed in the past should be the focus of a secondary review.
Posted on 6/14/20 at 12:56 pm to JustGetItRight
LINK
Here is an interview with an epidemiologist at UAB.
On hospital capacity:
On whether the new numbers are just a reflection of increased testing:
What are y'all's thoughts on this?
I do believe we are identifying more cases due to increased testing, but our testing numbers have actually gone down recently. I think the steady increase in hospitalization is concerning. We are now at our highest levels of the pandemic.
Here is an interview with an epidemiologist at UAB.
On hospital capacity:
quote:
As a state we still do have some capacity. But if you think about where the issues are, so for instance, in Montgomery with their capacity, it’s very difficult to take care of those large number of patients. One of the things that we would be concerned about would be your ventilators … At UAB we have capacity to take care of more patients with COVID-19, but that also requires coordination. We’d need to transfer patients from other areas to be able to care for them. At the current rate that we’re seeing an increase in number of cases, we will not have enough ventilators to care for the people that need ventilators. We will not have enough hospitalized beds, and that can lead to an increase in mortality.
On whether the new numbers are just a reflection of increased testing:
quote:
The hospitalization rate allows us to realize that it’s more than just an increase in our testing capacity. So as we’ve seen an increase in the number of cases, I’ve heard pretty consistently, ‘Well, we’re also doing more tests and maybe that’s why we’re identifying more people.’ But if you are identifying more people, then potentially the hospitalization numbers shouldn’t really go up. But as we’ve seen the hospitalizations are consistently going up and that’s where we’re concerned that we can’t take care of these patients in the way that we would want to.
What are y'all's thoughts on this?
I do believe we are identifying more cases due to increased testing, but our testing numbers have actually gone down recently. I think the steady increase in hospitalization is concerning. We are now at our highest levels of the pandemic.
Posted on 6/14/20 at 1:41 pm to Bobby OG Johnson
Over 1K cases yesterday. Damn
Places like Mobile have had a significant decrease in % of positive tests though
Places like Mobile have had a significant decrease in % of positive tests though
Posted on 6/14/20 at 2:45 pm to 1BamaRTR
I think increasing hospitalizations are a direct result of people letting their guard down as we open back up. Everyone knew this would lead to more cases, but because of the insidious nature of this virus, my theory is that asymptomatics or mildly symptomatics are infecting more of the at risk population and don’t even know it. Little Jennie wants to see grandma so she goes and visits, not knowing she’s a carrier. Grandma ends up in the hospital.
You also have cases like my father-in-law who is in his late 70’s and is relatively healthy but still has health issues but is in better shape than my MIL. He has to go to Walmart occasionally to get the things they need. They live in rural SW Ga. Shipt and Instacart don’t exist there. They wouldn’t use them if they did. Just like my mother, they are being cautious but refuse to totally give up their independence
And there’s a segment of people out there that are vulnerable that don’t even know it. Quite a few fit into the known categories of risk, some don’t. But if they don’t know they are hypertensives or have other conditions that aren’t readily evident, they don’t know they are higher risk. Then there are those that the virus just hits hard for unknown reasons.
The bottom line is, we knew the positive cases were going to go up. We hoped, probably foolishly, that hospitalizations wouldn’t, that we would just be detecting mild cases. But the virus is now spreading rapidly again, and as it spreads, it hits the vulnerable. It’s just a numbers game and the outcome was sadly, all too predictable.
You also have cases like my father-in-law who is in his late 70’s and is relatively healthy but still has health issues but is in better shape than my MIL. He has to go to Walmart occasionally to get the things they need. They live in rural SW Ga. Shipt and Instacart don’t exist there. They wouldn’t use them if they did. Just like my mother, they are being cautious but refuse to totally give up their independence
And there’s a segment of people out there that are vulnerable that don’t even know it. Quite a few fit into the known categories of risk, some don’t. But if they don’t know they are hypertensives or have other conditions that aren’t readily evident, they don’t know they are higher risk. Then there are those that the virus just hits hard for unknown reasons.
The bottom line is, we knew the positive cases were going to go up. We hoped, probably foolishly, that hospitalizations wouldn’t, that we would just be detecting mild cases. But the virus is now spreading rapidly again, and as it spreads, it hits the vulnerable. It’s just a numbers game and the outcome was sadly, all too predictable.
Posted on 6/14/20 at 2:52 pm to phil4bama
Florida Coronavirus Cases on the rise too.
Posted on 6/14/20 at 3:02 pm to gumpinmizzou
quote:
What are y'all's thoughts on this?
I do believe we are identifying more cases due to increased testing, but our testing numbers have actually gone down recently. I think the steady increase in hospitalization is concerning. We are now at our highest levels of the pandemic.
It's a real concern since it seems that so many people are now "over" being concerned with it.
In retrospect, the lockdowns in places like Alabama were likely too severe at that point and, even if the severe measures would have eventually been necessary, too early.
If there would have been just mask requirements + bans on large gatherings/reduced occupancy, there's a better chance more people would not currently be "rebelling" against even the most simple and common sense measures now.
However, that's something we can only really see in retrospect due to the disaster of limited testing capacity during that period.
There was just absolutely no data to show that infections were not already all over the south the same way they were in the northeast since we had almost no testing capacity.
This post was edited on 6/14/20 at 3:13 pm
Posted on 6/14/20 at 3:12 pm to gumpinmizzou
quote:
What are y'all's thoughts on this?
Scale matters.
It's easy to say hospitalizations are going up - and that's true but when you look at the overall numbers on Friday (number has gone down over the weekend but that may be from a lack of reporting) there were 624 current hospitalizations.
On 5/22 there were 598. On 4/28 there were 530.
Almost complete reopening happened on May 11th - from two weeks before then and with a major party holiday weekend a couple of weeks ago (the outside incubation period), we've seen an increase of less than 100 hospitalizations across 100 hospitals. If it wasn't for Montgomery having a concentration of them, that isn't a number that should cause anyone to bat an eye.
I'm in the Montgomery area so it impacts me, but realistically in that same time period they've had 6 murders and 300 assaults. What can you say, the gump's gonna gump.
Overall the state's still in good shape.
Posted on 6/14/20 at 3:25 pm to JustGetItRight
Appreciate that perspective. I also agree with the post that the lockdowns came too early. But, hindsight is 20/20.
I wonder how hospital capacity will be effected by people who maybe ignored an issue out of covid fears now having to be checked in because it has gotten worse.
That may not even be a big thing, but I would be interested to know how much overall hospital stays increase along with covid stays.
I wonder how hospital capacity will be effected by people who maybe ignored an issue out of covid fears now having to be checked in because it has gotten worse.
That may not even be a big thing, but I would be interested to know how much overall hospital stays increase along with covid stays.
Posted on 6/14/20 at 3:55 pm to JustGetItRight
quote:
Overall the state's still in good shape.
It doesn't seem that Alabama is in bad shape overall.
However, you would have to say that now is the time to be very concerned and encourage everyone being more diligent to do simple and common sense things that can prevent spread without lockdowns.
That the Alabama Rt (Rate of infection) is staying consistently over the threshold of 1 new infection for every tested case means that it needs to be lowered now to avoid continually having around 1000 new cases every day which would begin to push hospitals out of the "safe enough" zone.
Posted on 6/14/20 at 4:05 pm to wm72
Well, if you go out and about, you will see that our population is acting like nothing is going on. No masks and no social distancing.
I don't pay much attention to cases but hospitalazations and deaths do concern me and they are rising rapidly.
The thing about cases means more people to spread it.
Hot weather does not seem to be having the desired effect yet.
I don't pay much attention to cases but hospitalazations and deaths do concern me and they are rising rapidly.
The thing about cases means more people to spread it.
Hot weather does not seem to be having the desired effect yet.
This post was edited on 6/14/20 at 4:06 pm
Posted on 6/14/20 at 4:26 pm to wm72
Here’s a link to an alternative count sheet for Florida by a former DOH worker. It’s unclear to me why she felt the need to create another data site but her numbers are 10,000 higher than the official FL DOH site. LINK
It also shows that nearly 40% of the cases have been reported in the last 30 days. What it doesn’t show, is using the numbers from the official site, 52% of the state’s cases are from 3 counties: Palm Beach, Broward, and Dade. If you don’t know, Dade and Broward counties are Miami and Miami Beach and Palm Beach county is the next county north of those two. So while those 3 counties make up just slightly over 1/4 of the state population ( roughly 6.2 of 22 million) they account for roughly 38,000 of the 75,000 cases statewide.
Cases are up in NW Florida too but Bay and Walton counties are talking about total cases in the 145 range and 10 new cases a day is a “spike”. Okaloosa and Santa Rosa county is talking 300 cases and Escambia almost 1,000. Escambia has twice the population of Bay but over 6 times the cases. I really can’t explain it other than the beaches but Pensacola Beach and Perdido Key don’t bring in the tourists that Destin and PCB do. Leon County, where Tally is, is roughly the same population as Escambia but Leon has only half the case load. The inconsistency of this disease is amazing.
It also shows that nearly 40% of the cases have been reported in the last 30 days. What it doesn’t show, is using the numbers from the official site, 52% of the state’s cases are from 3 counties: Palm Beach, Broward, and Dade. If you don’t know, Dade and Broward counties are Miami and Miami Beach and Palm Beach county is the next county north of those two. So while those 3 counties make up just slightly over 1/4 of the state population ( roughly 6.2 of 22 million) they account for roughly 38,000 of the 75,000 cases statewide.
Cases are up in NW Florida too but Bay and Walton counties are talking about total cases in the 145 range and 10 new cases a day is a “spike”. Okaloosa and Santa Rosa county is talking 300 cases and Escambia almost 1,000. Escambia has twice the population of Bay but over 6 times the cases. I really can’t explain it other than the beaches but Pensacola Beach and Perdido Key don’t bring in the tourists that Destin and PCB do. Leon County, where Tally is, is roughly the same population as Escambia but Leon has only half the case load. The inconsistency of this disease is amazing.
This post was edited on 6/14/20 at 4:33 pm
Posted on 6/14/20 at 4:36 pm to phil4bama
quote:
It’s unclear to me why she felt the need to create another data site but her numbers are 10,000 higher than the official FL DOH site.
Unless she's linking sources, I'd be very, VERY suspicious of her numbers.
No testing firm is going to be sending even bulk numbers to private individuals.
Posted on 6/14/20 at 4:42 pm to JustGetItRight
On the other hand, it would not surprise me if the state DOH is being pressured to underreport numbers. DeSantis can not afford to close back down the beaches and the state at the height of the tourist season. They could very well be massaging the numbers to keep them as low as possible without totally fabricating them.
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