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re: Auburn vs. Louisville preview / pregame thread (?)
Posted on 8/19/15 at 5:21 am to Dawgsontop34
Posted on 8/19/15 at 5:21 am to Dawgsontop34
Very good breakdown. I don't agree with everything but I can appreciate an attempt at an unbias look from someone outside.
To deal with my football withdrawals, I went back and watched a few of UL's games along with games between Grantham & Gus. Some things I want to add
1.) I don't think a lot of people realize how solid of a defense UL had last season. However, they lose Mualdin, Holloman & Sample who were all beasts for them. Rankin is very good & Brown at NG is going to be a challenge for Golson. They also just lost their backup NG for the season so there isn't a ton of depth there. They will still be good in the front 7 but they aren't very deep
2.) On the flip side, when that defense faced SEC talent it got worn down. They surrendered 42 to FSU, 40 to UK & 37 to UGA. In those games the defense just got wore down & fell apart. I think we will see similar in Atlanta
3.) They have some playmakers on the offense but I don't know if they have the QB to get them the ball. Their QBs last season were painful to watch. Bonnafon is the better athlete but I think Gardner will be the guy because he is more accurate
4.) Petrino's offenses are always more dangerous in year 2. He also has a sick group of WRs. If he finds a decent QB in that group they will put up points
5.) The biggest thing to me is when Grantham faced Gus with a competent QB (aka not Clint Moseley) Gus absolutely gashed him. Grantham always seems to build a great pass rush but his defenses can be weak against teams that just line up & run right at them something UGA & FSU both did. Specifically when teams go after the WILL. Bama did it in 2011 in the SEC title game & UGA did it with Chubb last year in the bowl. I think AU will do similar & challenge their best pass rusher to stop the run
I think game goes similar to Arkansas last season for us. Close at half but us pulling away late for comfortable win. I am REALLY glad we aren't facing this team with Mauldin, Holloman & Parker. I am pretty sure Parker would have 200+ yds receiving on us
Props again for solid preview
To deal with my football withdrawals, I went back and watched a few of UL's games along with games between Grantham & Gus. Some things I want to add
1.) I don't think a lot of people realize how solid of a defense UL had last season. However, they lose Mualdin, Holloman & Sample who were all beasts for them. Rankin is very good & Brown at NG is going to be a challenge for Golson. They also just lost their backup NG for the season so there isn't a ton of depth there. They will still be good in the front 7 but they aren't very deep
2.) On the flip side, when that defense faced SEC talent it got worn down. They surrendered 42 to FSU, 40 to UK & 37 to UGA. In those games the defense just got wore down & fell apart. I think we will see similar in Atlanta
3.) They have some playmakers on the offense but I don't know if they have the QB to get them the ball. Their QBs last season were painful to watch. Bonnafon is the better athlete but I think Gardner will be the guy because he is more accurate
4.) Petrino's offenses are always more dangerous in year 2. He also has a sick group of WRs. If he finds a decent QB in that group they will put up points
5.) The biggest thing to me is when Grantham faced Gus with a competent QB (aka not Clint Moseley) Gus absolutely gashed him. Grantham always seems to build a great pass rush but his defenses can be weak against teams that just line up & run right at them something UGA & FSU both did. Specifically when teams go after the WILL. Bama did it in 2011 in the SEC title game & UGA did it with Chubb last year in the bowl. I think AU will do similar & challenge their best pass rusher to stop the run
I think game goes similar to Arkansas last season for us. Close at half but us pulling away late for comfortable win. I am REALLY glad we aren't facing this team with Mauldin, Holloman & Parker. I am pretty sure Parker would have 200+ yds receiving on us
Props again for solid preview
1
Posted on 8/19/15 at 6:46 am to Tiger n Miami AU83
quote:
We are elite at rb. Our 1-3 are all elite IMO.
Wait, what? Who? Robinson hasn't played a down of sec football. Roc got about 43 touches last season. I don't even know who the 3rd guy is? Barber?
Posted on 8/19/15 at 7:04 am to gatorhata9
quote:
quote:
We are elite at rb. Our 1-3 are all elite IMO.
Wait, what? Who? Robinson hasn't played a down of sec football. Roc got about 43 touches last season. I don't even know who the 3rd guy is? Barber?
Well, depending on which service you ask, you have three 5*'s and a 4* at RB. That means that AU has a good bit of perceived elite talent..that doesn't mean they are actually elite. The 4* Peyton Barber may very well get the start. From what I have heard, Gus and the RB coach is thrilled about the talent at RB...also happy that they did not have a fumble all Spring and all fall camp. But let's wait until they actually get on the field and produce before we declare them elite.
If it's a push between AU and Louisville, Louisville has a serious backfield though.
Posted on 8/19/15 at 7:05 am to gatorhata9
quote:
Wait, what? Who? Robinson hasn't played a down of sec football. Roc got about 43 touches last season. I don't even know who the 3rd guy is? Barber?
The potential is definitely there but I agree it is a little early to call them "elite" when all 3 of them combined haven't reached 100 carries in their career....
With that said I don't think this statement will look so ridiculous by end of the season but we will see
Posted on 8/19/15 at 7:24 am to TigerPaw1
Yeah, well put, better than I put it.
They have not proven themselves to be elite yet, but I believe they are in fact elite backs and the one or two that get the lions share of the carries this year will bear that out during the season.
They have not proven themselves to be elite yet, but I believe they are in fact elite backs and the one or two that get the lions share of the carries this year will bear that out during the season.
Posted on 8/19/15 at 7:50 am to Dawgsontop34
I'd have to disagree big time on the RB assessment. Auburn's RB group is immensely more talented than what UL will field, and the system will allow for them to utilize what they do well.
This post was edited on 8/19/15 at 7:50 am
Posted on 8/19/15 at 8:40 am to Irons Puppet
quote:
Explain the other games. Our Defense sucked last year, and we didn't give up 37 to UGA (34). They played a very soft schedule and gave up point to the quality opponents.
Every team is going to have bad games, but it's not like Louisville was in the Mountain West or something. They were still 6th in the nation in yards allowed per game, and I think that can be a better indicator often times, than points per game because that doesn't show you what sort of position your offense puts you in. I will agree that UL definitely struggled at the end of the year though.
Posted on 8/19/15 at 8:53 am to TigerPaw1
quote:
The biggest thing to me is when Grantham faced Gus with a competent QB (aka not Clint Moseley) Gus absolutely gashed him.
I mean, it's easy to look at your two teams that played in the national championship and say they bashed Grantham, because those two teams bashed a lot of people. Grantham did have a shutout, and another game where he held you to your lowest output of the season. But I do think that Gus definitely is an advantage offensively over Grantham defensively. I completely agree with pretty much everything you wrote. Great breakdown of your own.
quote:
I'd have to disagree big time on the RB assessment. Auburn's RB group is immensely more talented than what UL will field, and the system will allow for them to utilize what they do well.
I mean, that's very possible, and I put the system advantage more under coaching than under the RB position. Roc Thomas should be great, but he has 43 carries so far, and hasn't had a single game against any decent team that brought the "wow" factor. Barber was a 3-star who has had 4 carries against SEC competition. Robinson is behind both of them, and I think Johnson is 4th. I expect all of those guys to be good for y'all, but there's nothing as of now that says they are elite or even close to elite other than recruiting rankings. I think A.J. Turman will be really good for us, but he's never played a down of college football, and I'm sure Louisville fans feel the same way about their RB core, but we can't really know for sure until they start playing football.
Posted on 8/19/15 at 8:57 am to Dawgsontop34
Posted on 8/19/15 at 9:00 am to Dawgsontop34
quote:
Grantham did have a shutout,
quote:
Gus
quote:That was actually Alabama.
and another game where he held you to your lowest output of the season.
Posted on 8/19/15 at 9:04 am to Dawgsontop34
My main point was their schedule. They played Murray St, UVA, FIU, Wake Forest, Miami,Syracuse, BC and Kentucky. It's hard not to pad stats against to teams. That is why Stats in College Football is like comparing apples to oranges.
Posted on 8/19/15 at 9:07 am to joeyb147
quote:
Grantham did have a shutout,
quote:
Gus
quote:
and another game where he held you to your lowest output of the season.
That was actually Alabama.
Have y'all just eliminated the years 2011 and 2012 from your memories?
ETA: Whoops...
quote:
Ironspuppet
I do agree with your schedule point, but other people play easy schedules and don't put up the numbers they did.
This post was edited on 8/19/15 at 9:14 am
Posted on 8/19/15 at 9:10 am to Dawgsontop34
quote:
I mean, it's easy to look at your two teams that played in the national championship and say they bashed Grantham, because those two teams bashed a lot of people.
True but that is all we have to go on. I know it's not perfect analysis but I think JJ can lead that level of offense next season. I'm not saying JJ is a lock to be Cam Newton or Nick Marshall but I think it would be crazier to think he is closer to Clint Mosely than either of those guys
quote:
Grantham did have a shutout, and another game where he held you to your lowest output of the season
He faced Gus in 2010, 2011 & 2013. Didn't shut us out in any of those. He did destroy us in 2011 but we did score on a double reverse TE pass
Posted on 8/19/15 at 9:10 am to Dawgsontop34
quote:Here, I'll break it down for you since you didn't comprehend it.
Have y'all just eliminated the years 2011 and 2012 from your memories?
What does Malzahn have to do with 2012? You know he wasn't at Auburn then correct? Why would you use that when this conversation was started with Malzahn vs Grantham?
And in 2011, Alabama held Auburn to their lowest output all year. Auburn's offense didn't score in that game where they did against UGA. Auburn also averaged 4.06 yards/play against UGA and 2.55 yards/play against Alabama.
Hope that clears up your confusion.
Posted on 8/19/15 at 9:11 am to Dawgsontop34
There was no college football in 2012
Posted on 8/19/15 at 9:13 am to joeyb147
quote:
What does Malzahn have to do with 2012? You know he wasn't at Auburn then correct? Why would you use that when this conversation was started with Malzahn vs Grantham?
Wait, we didn't play Arkansas St. that year??
My bad. I was a complete idiot there. Scott Loeffler hasn't exactly been very good at VT either. Comparing those two is like comparing Cam to Clint Mosely.
Posted on 8/19/15 at 9:15 am to gsm1060
quote:
There was no college football in 2012
Honestly after the Texas A&M game I can't tell you what happened rest of the season. Just blocked it all out...
Crazy that was only 2 seasons ago
Posted on 8/19/15 at 9:20 am to gsm1060
quote:I beg to differ
There was no college football in 2012
Posted on 8/19/15 at 9:32 am to Dawgsontop34
Good review. As it relates to RB, I think AU gets a larger advantage not due to personnel, but scheme. Malzahn's scheme should help the AU backs significantly out perform the ville backs. If not, it could be a very disappointing day for AU.
As it relates to coaching, I think you got it right. However, specifically regarding offensively play calling, I would give Petrino a slight advantage. Gus runs more hot and cold, while Petrino is the best in the business, imo.
As it relates to coaching, I think you got it right. However, specifically regarding offensively play calling, I would give Petrino a slight advantage. Gus runs more hot and cold, while Petrino is the best in the business, imo.
Posted on 8/19/15 at 9:39 am to Tiger n Miami AU83
quote:Agreed. Also, I am anxious to see them when they are pass blocking more. Coleman is a great run blocker, but didn't have great footwork pass blocking good ends last season.
Oline, we have plenty of talent. That isn't the question. The question is guys that haven't played together as a unit, have not played a position before, returning from injury and so forth.
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