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Auburn vs. Louisville preview / pregame thread (?)
Posted on 8/18/15 at 5:54 pm
Posted on 8/18/15 at 5:54 pm
Offense
QB: Moderate/Big Advantage - Auburn
It is a little tough to judge the QB position for Auburn, because even though Jeremy Johnson has looked outstanding so far with his arm strength, accuracy, and delivery, he really hasn't played meaningful minutes against high quality competition yet. He looked great against Arkansas, whose defense had not gelled yet, and he's also looked very good against lesser known school. I do believe he has a ton of talent though, and will be much more prepared for game 1 than the UL quarterbacks. As of now, Louisville is still deciding between 3 different players (Kyle Bolin, Reggie Bonnafon, and Will Gardner) to start game 1. Bonnafon shined in the spring and was expected to be the #1 QB, but Bolin and Gardner are both testing that. Bonnafon's play last fall was very poor IMO, and even though he was just a freshman who will have learned a lot in the offseason, he will have had to work drastically on pocket presence, accuracy, and decision making. That's asking for a lot. Gardner has a pretty strong arm, but really struggles to throw on the run and that could be a major problem against the talented DEs of Auburn. Bolin looked good against a UK defense that really struggled at the end of last season, but struggled against UGA with some really poor decisions. It's going to be interesting to see who Petrino goes with, but regardless I believe Auburn has a leg up at the QB position.
RB: Push
This is not to say I don't believe Auburn is going to be great at the RB position this season, because I do. But as of now, there is no way I can put them ahead of Brandon Radcliff and Louisville's RB core. I really like Robinson and think he will make a huge impact on the season, but I don't see him making as big of an impact in the first couple games based on where he is on the depth chart. Roc Thomas is also a big talent, but he hasn't experienced a whole lot of big game situations. Radcliff has a very good cutback move, and a low center of gravity that helps him bounce off tacklers. With Dyer being gone, Radcliff will receive a larger role and it's going to be exciting to see if he can propel himself to one of the top 3 backs in the ACC.
WR/TE: Slight/Moderate Advantage - Auburn
Auburn clearly has the best player of either team at the WR position in Duke Williams, but the rest of the position is kind of a toss up. Ricardo Louis is dynamic in the running game and has the ability to make plays in the air as well, and Melvin Ray has good potential, but it's going to be tough for someone to take over the Sammie Coates role. Louisville, on the other hand, is going to be looking to a lot of new players on the team because they lost 5 out of their top 6 receivers from last year including Davante Parker, who had the ability to make his QBs look way better than they were. James Quick returns, and they add JaQuay Williams, a one time Auburn commit, and A&M transfer. Quick is a good route runner who finds open space better than almost all receivers I've seen in college. Quick also possesses good speed that he'll try to exploit the Auburn DBs with. Williams has a great athletic ability with his 40 time and vertical, but it's going to be very interesting to see if that will translate to starting at the collegiate level.
OL: Moderate Advantage - Auburn
Auburn returns 3 linemen from last season, but I'm giving the slight edge to Auburn here because they're adding former Ole Miss starter and 4 star recruit Austin Golson, along with former starter for them Alex Kozan. Auburn's offensive line was definitely not as strong last season as they have the potential to be. Shon Coleman needs to work on being a little bit quicker off the line and avoiding holding penalties because he got eaten alive a couple times last season. Louisville lost their starting left tackle, Jamon Brown, and left guard, John Miller, to the NFL in the 3rd round of the draft. They do return a couple starters that provided good quality last year, but they will be relying on a couple JUCO players and Freshmen which could put them in a scary position come game 1 against one of the best defensive ends in the nation.
QB: Moderate/Big Advantage - Auburn
It is a little tough to judge the QB position for Auburn, because even though Jeremy Johnson has looked outstanding so far with his arm strength, accuracy, and delivery, he really hasn't played meaningful minutes against high quality competition yet. He looked great against Arkansas, whose defense had not gelled yet, and he's also looked very good against lesser known school. I do believe he has a ton of talent though, and will be much more prepared for game 1 than the UL quarterbacks. As of now, Louisville is still deciding between 3 different players (Kyle Bolin, Reggie Bonnafon, and Will Gardner) to start game 1. Bonnafon shined in the spring and was expected to be the #1 QB, but Bolin and Gardner are both testing that. Bonnafon's play last fall was very poor IMO, and even though he was just a freshman who will have learned a lot in the offseason, he will have had to work drastically on pocket presence, accuracy, and decision making. That's asking for a lot. Gardner has a pretty strong arm, but really struggles to throw on the run and that could be a major problem against the talented DEs of Auburn. Bolin looked good against a UK defense that really struggled at the end of last season, but struggled against UGA with some really poor decisions. It's going to be interesting to see who Petrino goes with, but regardless I believe Auburn has a leg up at the QB position.
RB: Push
This is not to say I don't believe Auburn is going to be great at the RB position this season, because I do. But as of now, there is no way I can put them ahead of Brandon Radcliff and Louisville's RB core. I really like Robinson and think he will make a huge impact on the season, but I don't see him making as big of an impact in the first couple games based on where he is on the depth chart. Roc Thomas is also a big talent, but he hasn't experienced a whole lot of big game situations. Radcliff has a very good cutback move, and a low center of gravity that helps him bounce off tacklers. With Dyer being gone, Radcliff will receive a larger role and it's going to be exciting to see if he can propel himself to one of the top 3 backs in the ACC.
WR/TE: Slight/Moderate Advantage - Auburn
Auburn clearly has the best player of either team at the WR position in Duke Williams, but the rest of the position is kind of a toss up. Ricardo Louis is dynamic in the running game and has the ability to make plays in the air as well, and Melvin Ray has good potential, but it's going to be tough for someone to take over the Sammie Coates role. Louisville, on the other hand, is going to be looking to a lot of new players on the team because they lost 5 out of their top 6 receivers from last year including Davante Parker, who had the ability to make his QBs look way better than they were. James Quick returns, and they add JaQuay Williams, a one time Auburn commit, and A&M transfer. Quick is a good route runner who finds open space better than almost all receivers I've seen in college. Quick also possesses good speed that he'll try to exploit the Auburn DBs with. Williams has a great athletic ability with his 40 time and vertical, but it's going to be very interesting to see if that will translate to starting at the collegiate level.
OL: Moderate Advantage - Auburn
Auburn returns 3 linemen from last season, but I'm giving the slight edge to Auburn here because they're adding former Ole Miss starter and 4 star recruit Austin Golson, along with former starter for them Alex Kozan. Auburn's offensive line was definitely not as strong last season as they have the potential to be. Shon Coleman needs to work on being a little bit quicker off the line and avoiding holding penalties because he got eaten alive a couple times last season. Louisville lost their starting left tackle, Jamon Brown, and left guard, John Miller, to the NFL in the 3rd round of the draft. They do return a couple starters that provided good quality last year, but they will be relying on a couple JUCO players and Freshmen which could put them in a scary position come game 1 against one of the best defensive ends in the nation.
This post was edited on 8/18/15 at 6:32 pm
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Posted on 8/18/15 at 5:54 pm to Dawgsontop34
Defense
DL: Slight Advantage - Louisville
Auburn probably has the best player in Carl Lawson, who by all accounts has recovered very well from his injury that held him out last season, but Louisville may have a little bit more depth on the D Line that gives them a little advantage. Sheldon Rankins had 8 sacks last season and can play the DE or DT position. He's expected to be an early draft pick next season as well. Louisville also has 2 other seniors in Deangelo Brown and Pio Vatuvei, but the person who I'm most excited to see is Davonte Fields, the TCU transfer. Fields forced 10 sacks his freshman year at TCU and appeared to be one of the best Freshmen in the nation that year. Auburn adds Byron Cowart who could be unreal in game 1, but will probably have more of an impact later in the season when he has a little bit better understanding of Muschamp's scheme. Montravious Adams is a beast and should provide great pressure and run defense in the middle. There's a lot of talent on both sides of the ball at the D Line.
LB: Push
Linebacker is one position on defense Auburn actually was pretty good at last season, and fortunately for them, Casanova Mckinzy and Kris Frost, who probably could have gone to the NFL draft. Louisville did lose Lorenzo Mauldin, but they also return two of the better linebackers in the ACC from last year in Keith Kelsey and James Burgess. Some people would include Fields here, but I kept him and Lawson in the DE category to try and make things more comparable. Both linebacking cores are very impressive, and it will be interesting to see who fills that last spot on each team and the impact they can have in the first game of the season.
DB: Push
Both teams are going to be reliant on transfers that I may or may not be familiar with next season (Matthews for Auburn, Harvey-Clemons and Wiggins for Louisville). All 3 of those guys are very talented players. Wiggins may struggle with bigger receivers on occasion which could be a struggle if he's matched up against Duke Williams, but maybe they could use all 6-5 of Josh Harvey-Clemons over the top to help out in that matchup. JHC has also talked about putting in more of an effort at Louisville after "going through the motions" at UGA. Matthews was very impressive in his freshman season in Athens, and should be great in pass and run defense for Auburn. Jonathan Jones was a very good corner for the Tigers last season, and if he's fully recovered from his foot injury I expect him to be matched up on Quick all game. Auburn will also get contributions from Michigan transfer Blake Countess and safety Jonathan Ford. This unit could definitely give up a couple big plays in this game, but pressure from the front line would help them out tremendously, especially at the CB spot opposite Jones.
Special Teams - N/A
Honestly don't know enough about either team in this area to be able to make an accurate comparison. I know Auburn returns Carlton, and U of L returns their kicker, but the return games are unknown at this point and everything seemed pretty negligible to me.
Coaching: Slight Advantage - Auburn
I hate the fact that I'm saying this, but Auburn does have one of the best offensive minds in football in Gus Malzahn, along with one of the best defensive minds in football in Will Muschamp. That will give them a big coaching advantage over many teams they will play. But Bobby Petrino, despite being a scumbag and leaving every program in shambles, wins where he is, and has proven to be an incredible coach. The toughest thing for Louisville IMO is replacing 10 players that were drafted last season and as bias as this sounds because of my dislike for Todd Grantham, I really do believe the further Louisville gets away from Charlie Strong coached players to Todd Grantham coached players the worse that unit will get. It's like the opposite of what happened with Tennessee and Derek Dooley leaving.
Overall this should be a great game, and I know a few people have picked this as an upset, but I don't see it. Auburn should win this game by double digits IMO.
DL: Slight Advantage - Louisville
Auburn probably has the best player in Carl Lawson, who by all accounts has recovered very well from his injury that held him out last season, but Louisville may have a little bit more depth on the D Line that gives them a little advantage. Sheldon Rankins had 8 sacks last season and can play the DE or DT position. He's expected to be an early draft pick next season as well. Louisville also has 2 other seniors in Deangelo Brown and Pio Vatuvei, but the person who I'm most excited to see is Davonte Fields, the TCU transfer. Fields forced 10 sacks his freshman year at TCU and appeared to be one of the best Freshmen in the nation that year. Auburn adds Byron Cowart who could be unreal in game 1, but will probably have more of an impact later in the season when he has a little bit better understanding of Muschamp's scheme. Montravious Adams is a beast and should provide great pressure and run defense in the middle. There's a lot of talent on both sides of the ball at the D Line.
LB: Push
Linebacker is one position on defense Auburn actually was pretty good at last season, and fortunately for them, Casanova Mckinzy and Kris Frost, who probably could have gone to the NFL draft. Louisville did lose Lorenzo Mauldin, but they also return two of the better linebackers in the ACC from last year in Keith Kelsey and James Burgess. Some people would include Fields here, but I kept him and Lawson in the DE category to try and make things more comparable. Both linebacking cores are very impressive, and it will be interesting to see who fills that last spot on each team and the impact they can have in the first game of the season.
DB: Push
Both teams are going to be reliant on transfers that I may or may not be familiar with next season (Matthews for Auburn, Harvey-Clemons and Wiggins for Louisville). All 3 of those guys are very talented players. Wiggins may struggle with bigger receivers on occasion which could be a struggle if he's matched up against Duke Williams, but maybe they could use all 6-5 of Josh Harvey-Clemons over the top to help out in that matchup. JHC has also talked about putting in more of an effort at Louisville after "going through the motions" at UGA. Matthews was very impressive in his freshman season in Athens, and should be great in pass and run defense for Auburn. Jonathan Jones was a very good corner for the Tigers last season, and if he's fully recovered from his foot injury I expect him to be matched up on Quick all game. Auburn will also get contributions from Michigan transfer Blake Countess and safety Jonathan Ford. This unit could definitely give up a couple big plays in this game, but pressure from the front line would help them out tremendously, especially at the CB spot opposite Jones.
Special Teams - N/A
Honestly don't know enough about either team in this area to be able to make an accurate comparison. I know Auburn returns Carlton, and U of L returns their kicker, but the return games are unknown at this point and everything seemed pretty negligible to me.
Coaching: Slight Advantage - Auburn
I hate the fact that I'm saying this, but Auburn does have one of the best offensive minds in football in Gus Malzahn, along with one of the best defensive minds in football in Will Muschamp. That will give them a big coaching advantage over many teams they will play. But Bobby Petrino, despite being a scumbag and leaving every program in shambles, wins where he is, and has proven to be an incredible coach. The toughest thing for Louisville IMO is replacing 10 players that were drafted last season and as bias as this sounds because of my dislike for Todd Grantham, I really do believe the further Louisville gets away from Charlie Strong coached players to Todd Grantham coached players the worse that unit will get. It's like the opposite of what happened with Tennessee and Derek Dooley leaving.
Overall this should be a great game, and I know a few people have picked this as an upset, but I don't see it. Auburn should win this game by double digits IMO.
Posted on 8/18/15 at 5:55 pm to Dawgsontop34
Put your thang down D34, put your thang down. 
Posted on 8/18/15 at 6:02 pm to Dawgsontop34
You are hands down the best poster on this site
Posted on 8/18/15 at 6:08 pm to Dawgsontop34
My only problem with your post is that now I feel the urge to bug you into posting more of these. Solid work.
Posted on 8/18/15 at 6:10 pm to ArmyHogs
But Will Muschamp baw...
Posted on 8/18/15 at 6:13 pm to Dawgsontop34
Reasonable assessment. I think AU has the edge with every single unit listed but a push could be argued for a couple.
AU is favored by double digits. I personally think AU wins by 17-21.
AU is favored by double digits. I personally think AU wins by 17-21.
Posted on 8/18/15 at 6:27 pm to Dawgsontop34
No need for in depth analysis. Auburn game plan should just be to get to 3rd and long\Grantham all game and watch the 50+ yard TD passes commence.
Posted on 8/18/15 at 6:28 pm to Dawgsontop34
Solid write-up as always
quote:While still true, I think you meant offensive line
Auburn returns 3 linemen from last season, but I'm giving the slight edge to Auburn here because they're adding former Ole Miss starter and 4 star recruit Austin Golson, along with former starter for them Alex Kozan. Auburn's defensive line was definitely not as strong last season as they have the potential to be.
Posted on 8/18/15 at 6:29 pm to Dawgsontop34
Nice post.
Posted on 8/18/15 at 6:31 pm to Dawgsontop34
Quality analysis. Nice job OP.
Posted on 8/18/15 at 6:31 pm to Tiger n Miami AU83
quote:
AU is favored by double digits. I personally think AU wins by 17-21.
No way they hold us to 21 points. We will score 30 at least
Posted on 8/18/15 at 6:31 pm to Dawgsontop34
Solid analysis. My only beef is with the defensive line. I think getting Lawson and Lambert back with the addition of Cowart gives us a slight edge. Lawson changes the whole look of our defense. But Louisville has talent there and Auburn's DL was pitiful last year so I won't argue too much
Posted on 8/18/15 at 6:32 pm to LanierSpots
quote:
LanierSpots
ISWYDT
Posted on 8/18/15 at 6:33 pm to Dawgsontop34
I think Auburn scores early and often, and cruises.
Posted on 8/18/15 at 7:19 pm to TheJones
I guess I had heard that Cowart wasn't picking up the playbook very well so far, which is understandable as a true freshman who didn't enroll early. He's a beast, and I've heard Lawson has been unblockable in practice, but U of L has two very proven rushers of the passers, and other good players who provide depth. I very well could be wrong though.
Posted on 8/18/15 at 7:22 pm to Dawgsontop34
Oh shite, this was your dumbass analysis. I first thought it was another AJC fricked up reporters thoughts.
Posted on 8/18/15 at 7:23 pm to Irons Puppet
The OP has been fairly unbiased with his posts as far as I know. He's a pretty solid poster with a good handle on SEC football, IMO.
Posted on 8/18/15 at 7:25 pm to TTsTowel
quote:I agree
The OP has been fairly unbiased with his posts as far as I know. He's a pretty solid poster with a good handle on SEC football, IMO.
Posted on 8/18/15 at 7:25 pm to TTsTowel
Louisville doesn't have a QB yet, they lost their 3 top WRs and 3 OL.
On Defense they lost 7 out of 11 starter.
On Defense they lost 7 out of 11 starter.
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