gaetti15
| Favorite team: | Navy  |
| Location: | AK |
| Biography: | |
| Interests: | |
| Occupation: | |
| Number of Posts: | 15864 |
| Registered on: | 4/2/2013 |
| Online Status: | Online |
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you would think with with the advancements in AI this would be solved. i’m not impressed that’s all i’m saying, looks like we’re still just guessing
weather by nature is very chaotic. Good luck predicting chaos (see Jurassic Park).
Plus, remember that all models are bad, but some are useful :lol:
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Will be interesting to see if anything changes based off actual data... Yesterdays recon was apparently their small jet and hundreds of miles away from assumed center of circulation.
the upper levels are really important for this type of set up where you have a trough to the west, ridge to the east, and a sub-tropical jet stream all in play.
re: Tropical Storm Isaias - Heading Towards the Central Gulf Coast
Posted by gaetti15 on 10/6/26 at 11:04 pm to Uncommon Idea
Gfs 00z sniffing out gulf shores.
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He is currently at the ICE facility in Alexandria i believe
Ill pour out a 40 for him tonight
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Deported?
I havent seen him in a quick minute and he was the Midwest last I known. So either that or a student of his final got him to quit on life
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You really dont want that. They are all wish casters who post that stupid surprise emoji for any extreme scenario.
There are like two, max three people you can trust on that website. Just like here :lol:
(Just for clarification: rds, duke and legend...maybe boat for inland weather) thats about it.
Pedro too but hes out of practice :lol:
re: Tropical Storm Isaias - Heading Towards the Central Gulf Coast
Posted by gaetti15 on 10/6/26 at 10:25 pm to Hateradedrink
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Hateradedrink
NAM likes to spiral assumptions, resulting in outlandish MB forecasts. It’s not good for hurricane intensity.
Convection modeling is a Hellava drug
re: Tropical Storm Isaias - Heading Towards the Central Gulf Coast
Posted by gaetti15 on 10/6/26 at 9:57 pm to TheGhostOfBigLee
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So let’s say this hits the New Orleans area. What strength would it hit us at more than likely?
Death for sure
re: Tropical Storm Isaias - Heading Towards the Central Gulf Coast
Posted by gaetti15 on 10/6/26 at 9:54 pm to The Pirate King
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I'm not going to pretend to be a weather guru, but isn't this storm tracking further west the longer it stays in the gulf? Which would mean more time in warm water to strengthen?
Based on what I see on satellite...its pretty much a TS now :lol:
Its already gone through the dualing hot towers stage
Eta: its center its closing in on 22N,-95W
re: Tropical Storm Isaias - Heading Towards the Central Gulf Coast
Posted by gaetti15 on 10/6/26 at 9:53 pm to RazorBroncs
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Eye-zay-us
Jesus?
re: Tropical Storm Isaias - Heading Towards the Central Gulf Coast
Posted by gaetti15 on 10/6/26 at 9:51 pm to RazorBroncs
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Isiah but there's more than one of them
So eye say eye? (like walri or hippopotami)
re: Tropical Storm Isaias - Heading Towards the Central Gulf Coast
Posted by gaetti15 on 10/6/26 at 9:45 pm to East Coast Band
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Isaias
This is pronounced "eye-SAY-us" .Correct?
Im just saying isiah like the good Lord intended in the Bible. Else it wouldnt be a book
re: Tropical Storm Isaias - Heading Towards the Central Gulf Coast
Posted by gaetti15 on 10/6/26 at 9:40 pm to Spocks Brain
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These things seem to RI a lot these days. The one in the Pacific, Polo I believe went from a TS to Cat 5 in 24 hours just a couple of weeks ago
Given the background state of the eastern pacific in a el nino nonetheless a super el nino doesnt make that shocking at all :lol:
re: Tropical Storm Isaias - Heading Towards the Central Gulf Coast
Posted by gaetti15 on 10/6/26 at 9:23 pm to TutHillTiger
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Watched about a dozen on you tube. 4 world be rare but looks like 100mph and up storm at landfall
I know its youtube but just remember that the range of intellect you are watching has mileage that can vary.
Like stick to Levi and dont venture much out of that :lol:
re: Tropical Storm Isaias - Heading Towards the Central Gulf Coast
Posted by gaetti15 on 10/6/26 at 9:11 pm to TutHillTiger
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It’s up from a Cat 1 to 4 now at
Que?
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Technically he never said at landfall. Based on the ambiguity of his statement I take it he meant a hurricane at any point
He just wants it no matter what is what youre saying
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Best guess? Its October, so take my base case and shift it 35-50 miles east.
Puts us about Dauphin Island.
Tricky one here. Basic idea is obvious, but uncertainty on how fast it organizes leaves us the spread you see in the modeling.
Im glad my small portion of meteorology classes at LSU paid off :lol:
Also a statistician by trade so I get your precise language:lol:
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GFS and Euro latest runs both have it centered around Grand Isle, where the frick is the cone of uncertainty getting Biloxi from?
Our AI overlords
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Duke
I've seen this one before.
Sweetspot where shear doesnt overcome the jet enhancement and we could cook a decent hurricane. Otherwise, prob getting ripped to shreds on approach
100%
But lets us know your best guess at location :lol:
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How long ago was that one? Does not ring a bell.
insert forever meme from sandlot
re: Tropical Storm Isaias - Heading Towards the Central Gulf Coast
Posted by gaetti15 on 10/6/26 at 7:35 pm to TutHillTiger
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So it’s a cat 1 to 3 and hitting between Biloxi and Mobile right ?
If i had to take an educated guess its Biloxi to Pensacola.
Its October and that just screams more east.
I think thats what the AI models are picking up on.
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