JimMorrison

10 yr yield is also down since I predicted up. OMG!!

I see you are an ETF investor and get in your feelings when you read bearish predictions. I see it all the time.

active trading is what I do and the goal is to capitalize on price movements within a period of time. I know you can't fathom that, but your assumption that I'm always bearish and why you're latching onto comments from September is misguided. I have long investments like everyone, but it is more fun for me to discuss trades and be up to date on expected news catalysts that affect market prices.

maybe if you read this thread in September and saw that I literally predict a bond rally to begin when the 10 yr reaches 5%, you could have noted that and researched, then maybe profited on a trade. anyone smart enough can put two and two together to understand how that move would also affect different areas of the market.

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Congrats on the cherry-picked self-congrats!

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what?

you lol at those comments made in September as some sort of boom?

1. copper was bearish going into October and still is on longer timeframes. want to laugh? copper will make a huge move down in 2024 of roughly 20% from current price.

2. S&P going into October was bearish and bounced right above that 4050 target due in large part of the point of this thread--the 10 yr yield falling hard after it reached 5%. me saying if it ended the year at that level was clearly hypothetical and joking with the gif usage.

so revisiting this thread, 10 yr reached 5% and bonds immediately began a strong rally as expected. :cheers: to all who profited off that move.

now, the new year is gearing up to reverse that rally and today's jobs report looks to be the catalyst. yesterday's ADP report already showed hiring strength and today's report could also be a significant beat.

I've been in the camp that rates are staying higher for longer (contrarian to the market wishcasting rate cuts at every opportunity) and today could set the stage for the 10 yr heading back to 5%.

on the equities side, the VIX has been perking up and could indicate S&P is on the verge of a selloff to around 4400 support. if S&P ends up breaking below that level, I'd look for 2024 to continue with a bearish bias.

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So tell me why do the rates have to “go down?”

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they don't, but conventional thinking is when the economy gets into trouble, the Fed will immediately bail it out. since the GFC, the entire gov and investing population has gotten high off low rates and they're addicted. these politicians are irresponsibly spending in the face of rising rates and anyone with any sense can foresee the danger in that.

so now we have these realtors (ex-bartenders and bottle service girls) that don't know anything about macro and have never experienced anything other than low rates, but will talk out their arse to hope to sell a house to someone who knows even less about economics and rates. it's copium.

gotcha. I didn't finish the Ryujin quest...I'm going to do it in a later NG+.

for those that have gone NG+, did you side with the Emissary, Hunter or tell them both to frick off? I went with the Hunter because frick the Emissary gatekeeping and I'm pretty much the Hunter anyway--it should be a free for all.

eta: I did have some righteousness and told Father Aquilus to go live somewhere else. he was just wanting to live out his days in that universe, same as the Pilgrim.

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Go ahead and buy what you can afford now and hope that you can refinance in a couple of years if rates come down.

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a lot of people have this thought and probably are stretching their budget with that hope.

they are going to be SOL when rates don't meaningfully come down and they're underwater on their mortgage. general population isn't prepared for interest rates to stay high for years to come.

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Apprecation is on pace for another 7% increase this year

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I've explained how the prices are buoyed right now and you can forecast demand to continue to weaken. what is your point?

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And for how long will it stay at 10%
Anyone who thinks that would be a long time is also an idiot

Maybe you need to look at the 30yr Mortgage History chart

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again what is your point other than asking rhetorical questions and laughing at the notion that rates can not only go higher, but stay higher.

here is your 30 yr chart. maybe analyze the current rate path the market is on and how it correlates to the period between 1960-1980.

that response is perfect and encapsulates the average person's thinking.

"home prices going down after surging these past few years is impossible!!!" :lol:

don't take it from me. take it from an expert on interest rates where he speaks on the long term cycle. LINK.

people don't realize it because they've been conditioned for the past 15 years of low rates. we're heading to a higher long term rate cycle just as we did from the 1960s to 1980s. anyone remember stagflation and the 70s?

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It all depends on when the recession kicks in

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I'm not convinced a recession even matters at this point. that is kind of what the market wants and has expected to get back to lower rates.

I think a fundamental shift is underway to understanding the economy resilience and we are truly headed for higher for longer rates. there's no going back to 2.5% or 3%. the deleveraging alone will bring equities to lower valuations. currently, the 2024E S&P p/e is ~17.5. 16.5 gets the S&P to 4050, but if a shift is underway, what is that forward multiple the market will be willing to pay under the higher for longer/lower economic growth regime?

covid stimulus pulled forward 5-8 years of growth and it's perfectly reasonable for mean reversion to happen. everyone knows that growth was unsustainable.

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You can't be enough of a bastard.

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yeah, I'll throw in the companions being too good from the other thread. the future DLC could fix this and have new companions with a little more edge. Adoring fan is the only one who won't hate you for doing anything bad, but he can be so annoying and he's really only good as a pack mule when following you. I had to let him go in this first playthrough. :lol:

smuggling and piracy are a huge miss. these activities should be more rewarding and lucrative. there's no incentive to smuggle contraband because you can just sell it at the Den or Red Mile for the EXACT same credits as you would elsewhere. it makes no sense. if I'm smuggling aurora, the price should be way higher in New Atlantis than at the Den, for example.

stealing ships and selling should not require you to register it for 90% of its worth. I'm aware there's a mod for this, but the registration fee should be lower.

one other thing is more quality of life, but the vendor credits issue. I haven't modded yet, but that is one I'm considering to fix.