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I figure some of you have been here. I am wondering if it is worth it or not?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EWHst0qj-qw&feature=relmfu

I just realized that I suggested Kinder Morgan up above and there is likely some confusion on the stock I suggested.

The Kinder Morgan I am speaking of is ticker symbol KMI. It yields almost 4% and is around 31 a share. Anything under 30 would be a tremendous buy imo.

I've looked at their financials a bit and I like the fact Carl Icahn is on board (which if you didn't know is the reason they are electing new board members; he wrote an open letter demanding them). It is a buy rating in my book. It could go lower as oil and nat gas head further south if no QE quick fix is up for play, but honestly the stock has been beat to hell over the last year so picking it up now isn't that terrible of an idea. It really depends on your risk appetite, how much you are willing to buy, your time horizon, the rest of your portfolio, etc.

It's also interesting that the ones that claim the academia spotlight are also the most in the dark when paradigms shift.

Most professors that write economics and finance textbooks are all intelligent and is where I got my financial and economic background from but I can't listen to them for financial wisdom b/c they represent the mainstream. You can take a moat approach, status quo, or a contrarion approach. I tend to take the latter b/c I am in a point in life where I can take more risks. Professors and the intelligentsia tend to take the first 2 with an emphasis on the 2nd option. Don't get me wrong, their methods are unfathomable during macro growth and booms, but we have not and will not exit the recessionary tentacles from 2008 for some time to come. Where do the masses follow? Well, they tend to follow option 2 in my opinion b/c that is where on the surface wisdom dictates and by 'god' they can't ever be wrong can they?

My posts aren't meant to sway you into my camp but I do think a multitude of ideas can only hearken and challenge your own views on how the world operates and how 'models' of expectations and human actors on localized levels interpret data and react in not so EMH ways.

Now, most on here would have called me crazy while the market was moving upwards almost hitting 13,000 and I decided to short it. I am still short the market and think it has another 5 to 10% to fall before the Fed really decides to do anything.

Do I base this on fundamentals? Partly. Do I base it on my 'models' of how the world operates. Mostly.

Now, the topic of QE is another day but as much as I disagree with it, I know how people will react and what the impacts will be.

The loss is likely related to IG9, it is speculation among many insiders about IR swaps.

Amen to you brother about short futures if you are alluding to the same manipulation I am.

The scary part is this could actually happen which is why this article really does send a chill or two down my spine if they are this worried over a derivatives crisis:

https://www.gata.org/node/11412

How is it you ask?... Well I shorted it and that play is coming out really well so far.

FB was the most over-hyped stock of the decade and I called it. Their only chance of truly massive organic growth says they can't operate w/in their territorial boundaries. They are going to have to spend a lot more fcf if they want to do something in the mobile phone realm. They don't pay a dividend..... and they are trading at freaking 97x earnings.

Bottom line:
It doesn't even look attractive at 15 a share.

I'm not a big fan of ETFs in general so I haven't studied UNG but if you want to play the nat gas segment I would look into KMI (Kinder MOrgan) which is a pipeline and Niko Resources (a canadian based co.)

I honestly think oil (as well as nat gas) has some room to fall so I do not recommend buying them atm. I think oil could go as low as 70-75 within a month and depending if the Fed comes out with a massive print before Optwist is over, then oil will likely shoot back up to upper 90s and the train could pull out before you get a chance to buy. Nat gas is likely headed back down to 2 on Nymex, so it has some room to fall as well.

So, your risk in picking up these nat gas plays is beholden atm to what the Fed may or may not do, US economic impacts, and Europe's woes. Imo, if the fed does do something, it is quite likely they will hint about it sometime this month or in July. The markets have another 5-10% to fall before the Fed really starts shaking in their boots. So look for the dow to be around 11-1l.5k before they really start amplifying their language.

My personal buy targets for KMI would be in the 28-29 range. Anything below that is a good buy as it offers a 3.70% div at its current price of 32.35. KMI at 28 a share would mean a div yield of 4.6% which is very attractive considering the horrendous 10y treasury. Niko looks attractive below 21 a share (its current price is 29.07). I give Niko a lower buy rating b/c of the uncertainty of how investors will respond to stocks with 0 dividend in a tumultuous time as now.

Keep in mind as investors flee euro based assets they will be looking for dividend payers that are limited to the impacts of europe's monstrosities.

That is why you see WMT popping the way it is. It is a defensive play that pays a 4.7% dividend. The big institutionals are looking for safe haven equities and assets.

It's time to build a moat.

The basic premise of this video is capital preservation:

I have been squawking this for a while now among my investor circles.

Main trades:

-Energy: BP (if it hits 33 or under) and natural gas as it heads lower.

-Commodities: Gold and Silver

-Defensive: Walmarts, Dean Foods, etc


Summary:

I like these plays as they limit your exposure to Europe (besides BP but I believe oil will be headed up higher after this mess blows over). I am still bearish on Financials as any contagion fears as I have mentioned in the past could hit the financials as some of these Derivatives are deeply implicated by the big banks. If you are in financials look to limit your exposure as much as possible. Start looking towards the traditional banking types that are less leveraged like WFC, PNC bank, and some of your mid-size regionals.

I think scottrade offers a decent amount of research and data for whatever it costs you in opportunity cost to open an account there.