Grooler

re: Explain to me why Parents arrive In Car Pickup line 90 minutes early

Posted by Grooler on 12/15/23 at 2:52 pm

If you have a remote job and can work in the car, it's not a terrible way to spend your time.

O-T Lounge

re: VOO or QQQ

Posted by Grooler on 6/22/23 at 10:30 am

Thanks for the explanation and the link. I guess what I was looking for was some kind of understanding of the long-run trend. For example, are long-run average returns 3x the QQQ trend (ignoring fee difference)? Of course there will be higher volatility in TQQQ--maybe even >3x QQQ volatility, but if you're a young investor with high risk tolerance, why not use TQQQ as a long-run investment strategy? Is the magnified downside disproportionate to the magnified upside, leading to long-run losses in a market without large average returns? If so, is that caused by the high fees or some kind of geometric compounding property? Maybe the answers are not well known.

re: VOO or QQQ

Posted by Grooler on 6/21/23 at 2:44 pm

quote:
Do NOT to TQQQ as a 20 year hold strategy. That is horrible advice.

I often hear this, and I don't necessarily disagree. But I haven't heard a good explanation. Care to elaborate?

re: Odds of a recession and severity

Posted by Grooler on 3/22/23 at 8:17 am

quote:
That's kind of a necessary component of being "unexpected", isn't it?

Sure, if you’re being pedantic. Shocks can unfold over different durations. See GFC vs covid recessions.

re: Odds of a recession and severity

Posted by Grooler on 3/22/23 at 6:41 am

quote:
What do you think the odds of a recession are?

Low. Lots of people will scream recession, but recessions are almost always caused by unexpected shocks to the economy. I don’t see anything specific indicating a shock to the economy, except banking issues. If we can circumvent adverse financial market conditions, odds of no recession increase.

-8

re: Recommended emergency fund amount in months/years

Posted by Grooler on 3/22/23 at 6:32 am

quote:
Am I an idiot for thinking this?

Not at all. You know your financial needs better than anyone else. If you need 2+ years worth of cash flow fully assured—particularly in a high-risk employment situation, then it seems you’ve made a prudent decision.

re: Social Security - Help me understand better

Posted by Grooler on 2/8/23 at 10:23 am

The amount that you pay into it goes directly to the current beneficiaries (i.e., retirees). This works well as long as you have stable age demographics, which we do not. Because of an aging of the population, the share of retirees is growing relative to the share of people paying into it, making the program unsustainable under current tax rates ($ inflows) and benefits ($ outflows).

re: 24 hour rule

Posted by Grooler on 11/6/22 at 1:51 pm

I’ll let BK focus on getting the players ready. As for me, I’ll enjoy this win for at least one year.

Tiger Rant

re: Russia warns Ukraine attempts to retake Crimea will be seen as 'declaration of war'

Posted by Grooler on 6/28/22 at 9:33 am

quote:
They aren’t going to use nuclear weapons regardless.

That may turn out to be true. But I interpreted the statement as a threat to use nuclear weapons, however empty that threat may be.

re: Russia warns Ukraine attempts to retake Crimea will be seen as 'declaration of war'

Posted by Grooler on 6/28/22 at 8:41 am

They've said they wouldn't use nuclear bombs unless they were attacked. I suspect that's the implication here.

re: City of Chicago Divests of all Fossil Fuel Investments

Posted by Grooler on 3/25/22 at 7:53 am

quote:
It adds up to more than $70 million, she said.

Chicago is broke. They’ll be liquidating all of their assets soon.

re: To All Of Those Who Voted For Honor Code Because He Was The Ethical & Honorable Choice

Posted by Grooler on 2/2/22 at 9:17 am

Can’t help but to imagine Trump reading The Snake on the footsteps of the LA Capitol.

re: Conroe Texas

Posted by Grooler on 1/29/22 at 7:27 pm

quote:
The fact they elect Dan Crenshaw shows that is a lie

Dan Crenshaw does not represent Montgomery County.

re: Just getting to the board today. Nussmier post warning

Posted by Grooler on 11/14/21 at 1:57 pm

quote:
the kid isn’t the answer

Calm down. He’s a true freshman who showed a lot of promise. Evades the rush and has a cannon. Connected on several passes, but also made freshman mistakes. With a good OC, the kid has a high ceiling.

Tiger Rant

re: so NOW the USPS is unreliable for elections...

Posted by Grooler on 10/27/21 at 5:47 am

quote:
It doesn't say that they know which candidate the votes are for.

Correct. But I don’t think they would be suing if they thought the majority of those ballots were for the R candidate.

re: so NOW the USPS is unreliable for elections...

Posted by Grooler on 10/27/21 at 5:22 am

quote:
Virginia Dems are now suing USPS stating that over 25k absentee ballots are sitting at postal facilities throughout the commonwealth unprocessed.

How do the Democrats know those ballots are for their candidate??