GOP_Tiger

quote:

---

We can't even comprehend how fricked Europe is. Countries like Poland and even Hungary (I'm sure me saying they will be popular) are going to improve while western Europe, Russia, and Ukraine become shitholes (or expand their previous shitholery).

---

No, the inverted population pyramid caused by low birth rates will doom those countries to economic stagnation. European countries can import immigrants to work and then die by cultural suicide, or they can refuse and then die by economic suicide. But they're all in deep trouble one way or the other unless they start having more babies.

Yes, it's good that we still have you around to point out that Russia is still advancing on some fronts, even if it is now losing ground on others.

Do any of y'all think that Zion has added weight since the start of the season? He came in skinny, and that just didn't seem to work. Zion's play has improved as the season has progressed, but it looks to me like that has happened as he put some of the old muscle back on.

quote:

---

It was built basically as a multi purpose arena with hopes of attracting an NBA team.

---

Exactly. Gov. Edwards was thinking about the NBA from the jump.

quote:

---

Do you people understand what Superstars that are Zions height actually do throughout the season

---

What's your plan to acquire a superstar for next season?

quote:

---

One thing I do think we're seeing the end of is fixed place artillery. Future artillery needs to be very mobile. I mean, who wants to work a gun knowing that there are drones flying around looking to ruin your day...and you are in range of them.

Counter battery radar picks up the shot, relays the position to drones that are in the area, a minute or two later...bang.

---

That's not how its happening in Ukraine right now. "Shoot-and-scoot" worked in the first couple of years of the war, but at this point, a moving SPG gets taken out by an enemy drone. Certainly for Ukraine, Russian counter-battery radars have been taken out at a frequency that makes "shoot-and-stay-hidden" and better strategy.

The only exception is the Caesar and Archer systems that have a longer range. Ukraine can shoot those at such a distance behind the front that Russian drones can't effectively hunt them in response.

quote:

---

It's hard to know what's really going on over there

---

What's going on is that Ukraine has essentially brought the conflict back to stalemate status. Russia is still advancing on some fronts, but Ukraine is now advancing on others.

What's changed? Why is this happening? There are several reasons.

1) The single biggest factor, in my opinion, was the agreement between Ukraine and SpaceX to whitelist all Starlink terminals in Ukraine. Starlink had previous blocked sales to Russia and Starlink service had been eliminated in Russia, but of course, Russia had simply been buying terminals through other countries, and they were using them in Ukraine.

The agreement to disallow use of any Starlink terminal not registered through the Ukrainian government meant that all the Starlink terminals that the Russians were using suddenly became bricked.

The scale of this impact was shown in various charts that showed overall Starlink usage in Ukraine to have declined by more than half.

To understand why this was such a big deal, you need to picture a local Russian commander sitting in a forward command center. Using a Starlink terminal, he was previously looking live at feeds from multiple recon drones, and when he saw a Ukrainian position or piece of equipment, he could immediately task a FPV drone or artillery strike on that position. He could then watch the result of that strike and determine if a follow-on strike was needed.

Russia simply doesn't have another way of generating that kind of connectivity. Without Starlink, the operator of the recon drone has to "call" (often actually using unencrypted radio) in the coordinates to a command center. Once the commander orders the resulting strike, he often has to call the FPV or recon drone operator to know if it was successful.

To sum it up, the Russian "kill chain" has gone from something like 3 minutes to back over 20 minutes. That means that targets have often moved or prepared to defend themselves. And it dramatically lowers overall efficiency.

2) A related problem for Russia is now prohibitive cost of fiber-optic cable for FPV drones.

By early 2024, Ukraine had effective electronic warfare defenses against Russian FPV drones. Russia's response was to use wire-guided FPV drones, and then were really first employed in Russia's effort to retake Kursk. Not only did fiber-optic drones prove invincible to EW, the faster speed of the connection meant that they were much more responsive to Russian controllers---especially at longer distances. If a drone operator saw a target, there was no longer the lag in response time that was normal in the previous drones.

But Russia was then using a massive chunk of the world's fiber-optic cable supply, and its Chinese suppliers didn't immediately ramp up production. The result is that the kind of fiber-optic cable that Russia needs now costs something like 10 times what it did, and Russia can no longer afford to make as many fiber-optic drones as it did. With so much of the war now conducted by drone, this is a serious problem for Russia, which is why we are now starting to see more Russian mechanized assaults (and the resulting destruction of lots of Russian equipment)

3) Finally, the Ukrainian development of an overall drone command and dedicated drone units has meant that Ukrainian drone efforts are much more focused on Russian logistics. Five or six months ago, a lot more of Ukrainian drone operators were hunting for Russian troops and equipment right along the front line. That's the kind of thinking that makes sense in the short term, but the better long-term approach is what they are doing now. The consistent degradation of Russian logistics via drone strikes has affected overall Russian ability to project force forward.


TLDR: Since the beginning of 2026, Russian capabilities have declined, while Ukraine has increased its efficiency.

I'll grant you this: Russia could collapse in the result of Putin's death. He could have a heart attack and die tomorrow, and various factions among the military, siloviki, and FSB would begin competing for control. The winner would likely be the person who controlled the bulk of military and other power in the Moscow region, and that would likely mean military commanders moving troops away from Ukraine. It would also likely lead to Chechnya, etc. breaking away.

Putin has deliberately avoided setting up any kind of succession plan---largely because such a plan could create an opportunity for a coup. But that same failure to create such a plan will doom Russia when Putin eventually dies.

So, after bringing a spicy take here yesterday, I'm back today with an even spicier one:

It's probably better for NATO that the Ukrainian counteroffensive failed, and a ceasefire that freezes the current line of conflict is an effective guardian against a Russian invasion of Estonia or any other NATO country.

Why? It's really very simple. Ukraine is going to maintain a very powerful military for the foreseeable future. As long as Ukraine doesn't formally cede its territory to Russia, then a Russian attack on NATO is simply impossible.

It's taking Russia's full effort to fight Ukraine right now, and Ukraine is only going to get stronger when it joins the EU and gets all the economic benefits of that. How in the world do people imagine that Russia can invade Estonia in a few years? If they tried, Ukraine would be in Mariupol in a week. There's zero way that Russia will be able to generate the force necessary to invade a NATO country, while also defending its conquered Ukrainian territory.

In that sense, a "frozen conflict" in Ukraine is NATO's best guarantee of peace. We don't need Ukraine in NATO, because we wouldn't need them to send troops to Estonia if Russia were to invade, because Ukraine would simply retake Bakhmut, etc.

So all the Europeans worrying about how long it would take Russia to regenerate the strength needed to attack NATO? They are worrying for nothing, because the only way that could happen would be if there were a true, comprehensive peace treaty between Russia and Ukraine, and that's not going to happen.

quote:

---

The fact rising oil prices helps Russia is unfortunate, but it’s just another example of how world politics can and does impact us whether we like it or not.

---

And overall, the Iran conflict is still a boost to Ukraine. Israel, a number of Gulf States, and even Japan are now in talks to buy ukrainian-made drones. This is going to be a massive boost for the Ukrainian defense industry.

Besides that, all the Gulf nations are very much aware that part of the reason that they have been hit with ballistic missiles and drones is that Russia has a defense pact with Iran, and Russia has been helping Iran with its technology. Russia has made itself stink to everyone in the Middle East.

quote:

---

So why not just let the sanctions stay, and hurt Iran's benefactor?

---

President Trump is in the process of taking three key Russian allies off the table. It's essentially already accomplished in Venezuela, it's happening in Cuba, and it's happening in Iran.

Trump is obviously very keen to avoid any Russian interference in these operations. For example, he wanted (and got) Russia to state publicly that they aren't giving any targeting info to Iran (even if we know they were doing it on the sly). Trump is saying nice things to Putin and mean things to Zelensky, and he's making little concessions to him like the sanctions waiver---all while Trump is dramatically weakening Russia on the world stage by eliminating the Russian allies who cause problems for the US.

As some of you know, I am not MAGA. I'm a Reagan Republican who has voted 3rd party in the last three Presidential elections. I'm critical of the Trump administration when I disagree (tariffs, Greenland, vaccines), and I'll praise him when I agree.

And what Trump is doing with Venezuela, Cuba, and Iran is already the greatest accomplishment in American foreign policy since the fall of the Berlin Wall.

I'm very confident we'll see a different attitude from Trump after these three operations are completed.