Favorite team:LSU 
Location:Baton Rouge
Biography:
Interests:
Occupation:
Number of Posts:21172
Registered on:1/13/2005
Online Status:Not Online

Recent Posts

Message
The reason it's happening this way, of course, is that the Russian concept of victory involves the conquest of the rest of Donetsk Oblast, so their effort is concentrated in the East.

Ukraine is pushing hard in the South, because every kilometer that they are closer to Russian roads linking to Crimea makes it easier for their drones to hunt those logistics vehicles. The Ukrainian theory of victory very much involves consistently increasing the pressure on Crimea.
quote:

Russia is currently making a big push to take Kostiantynivka. This is what I meant when I said towards the south.


Yes, I would personally say Kostiantynivka is "East".
quote:

Russia's big push in the South


Wat?

Ukraine has made steady progress in the southern front this summer. A lot of it was just recently announced (though obvious for a while by geolocations of strike videos).

Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here.
quote:

The referendum was for independence from the Soviet Union, not the Russian Federation, which did not exist yet.


We all know that Comrade Nate doesn't care, But I will say this for everyone else: when Ukraine had its independence referendum, every other Soviet republic had already declared independence, with the one exception of Kazakhstan.

The USSR was only going to be Russia and Kazakhstan, and 92% of Ukrainians wanted out of that arrangement, including majorities in Donetsk, Luhansk, and Crimea.
quote:

They are.


Then why did they vote for independence from Russia? After the collapse of the USSR, they all voted in favor of leaving Russia and becoming part of an independent Ukraine. Even Crimea.

The fact that most people in Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk wanted to be Ukrainian obviously doesn't refute the fact that a lot of them still wanted to be Russian, and so of course Russia has found many willing collaborators in those regions.

But there's absolutely zero basis for your statement, and you know it.

Trey bulking up

Posted by GOP_Tiger on 8/11/26 at 9:02 pm
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here.


This should really help with rebounding in defense. Trey has consistently added to his game each year. Is this the year that he becomes an All-Star?
I mean, maps are extremely relevant to the Russian theory of victory. They are not particularly relevant to the Ukrainian theory of victory.

So yeah, how important you think maps are is, at some level, a reflection of who you think is going to win.
Wow, this would be absolutely stunning if the encirclement is confirmed.

Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here.
I haven't been to Auckland, but I spent a week in the Queenstown area in 2019 with girls 14 and 13 years old, and we had an awesome time hiking the Routeburn Trek and also to the Mueller Hut near Mt. Cook. Milford Sound is spectacular, and the glowworm cave at Te Anau was great. Great trip.

I haven't been southern Spain or Portugal since 1992, but I was in Lisbon and the Azores twice in the last 10 years. The Azores might be my favorite place on Planet Earth (and I've traveled to 46 countries), but the weather is terrible in January and I can't recommend it. I just, in general, don't think that January is a good time to go anywhere in Spain or Portugal. The average low temp in Grenada in January is 35 degrees.

re: Anyone ever flown QSuites?

Posted by GOP_Tiger on 8/10/26 at 8:46 pm to
quote:

Good to hear cause I have a 9hr layover and idk what im gonna do lol


A 9-hour layover? Guess what? You get a free hotel room.

Qatar Complimentary Transit Information

If you end up with time while it's open, everyone says that the Museum of Islamic Art is very impressive. I haven't been into the city myself, but I don't think that there's really all that much else to see or do—Doha isn't Dubai.
quote:

I will go off of your clarification and in that case mostly agree.


I appreciate that. Thanks.

To be more specific, because Russia is advancing in the East, if we were talking about an infiltration or claimed Russian advance in the East, then I would say that Russia would likely hold that territory, or at least some of it. If Ukraine were actually to reverse it, that would mean pulling resources away from another sector in the East and enable further Russian advance there.

But in the South, Ukraine has been advancing and has the balance of power in its favor. So, a localized Russian advance in the south looks like an attempt to force Ukraine to divert resources. Which is not nothing! But it also makes me skeptical that Russia will hold this territory.

I hope that makes sense, and I wish I had explained myself more carefully at the outset.
quote:



"Wow, multiple maps are showing Russian control of a place it's not been able to get to in the entire war yet."

You: "yeah uh well Ukraine has been advancing in the south!"

If someone asked you to put an example of whataboutism in the dictionary you couldn't find a better one.


I truly thought your reading comprehension was better than this. Nate was talking about a localized Russian infiltration in the south of Ukraine. He claimed it would be "stunning."

My response was that such a localized infiltration would not be stunning, because Ukraine is advancing overall in that sector of the front, and localized infiltrations often happen, and—while they sometimes succeed—they are often quickly wiped out, ESPECIALLY in the general area of the front where Ukraine is currently advancing.

That's not whataboutism. I was specifically rebutting and refuting Nate's argument that the infiltration would be "stunning."

Whataboutism would be if I said that Nate's argument didn't matter because of something else. That's not what happened.

quote:

It was just funny to me how objective and analytical some of you try to act but at the end of the day much of this entire thread is just sunshine pumping and cope.


The irony.
quote:

The whataboutism is fricking unreal sometimes



I don't even understand what you mean. The pattern for 2026 has been that Ukraine has advanced in the south, while Russia has advanced in the east. A localized Russian counter-attack that infiltrates north in one area of the southern front isn't "stunning," as Nate put it. It's not stunning at all. Interesting? Sure. Worth paying attention to, to see if anything ultimately comes of it? Yeah.

Where's the whataboutism?
quote:

This would be absolutely stunning if confirmed.


Infiltration events are not the same as control. Overall, Ukraine is advancing in the South, as even your Rybar map shows.
This I believe:

quote:

On the Hill, one Republican official in favor of the license told me about an unreported hiccup in the deal. Raytheon and Lockheed, the makers of the Patriot system, “will officially frame their concerns around IP theft and tech transfer,” he said, but “their real worry is that the Ukrainians will find a way to improve the Patriot and then produce them at scale faster and for much less money than what the existing production lines in the U.S. could do.”


Michael Weiss in The Atlantic

re: Jesus Christ Brees

Posted by GOP_Tiger on 8/8/26 at 4:28 pm to
There's a big difference between

1. Reading off a teleprompter, and

2. Practicing your speech to the point of having it essentially memorized, and only using the teleprompter to make sure you stay on track.
quote:

Ukraine can rail grain and seed oil cargos to Romania for loading onboard vessels.


The rail capacity only exists to move about half of Ukraine's grain in this fashion. Ukraine's economy is going to take a significant hit. They're betting that they can destroy Russia's economy before they run out of that EU money.
quote:

Magical thinking



You obviously haven't kept up with the missiles that Ukraine has already deployed, much less those that they're testing and developing.
quote:

Ukraine needs to accelerate its attacks on Russia's infrastructure and economy.

They can't.


LOL, that's exactly what they're doing. Ukrainian missile tech and production rates will likely exceed Russia's in a year or two.