HoneyDuece

Was downvoted for making this exact post. Baker’s defense has excelled against bad QBs but struggles in key moments and against good teams.

We need to keep the game in front of us for once. Unless it is like 4th and 2 or less from the 32 to 42, just take the points.

He is the highest paid defensive coordinator in the country and his wins this year are against the following QBs:

- Chris Vizzina (now benched)

- La Tech

- McNeese

- Marcel Reed with both of his top WRs injured

- Byrum Brown

- Billy Puckett

LOL

I mean what are we even doing here

Hey maybe we'll finally make a playoff then.

Criteria: Hand-picked games against either highly ranked teams or games important for playoff chances. I've excluded games against ranked opponents where our season was over or if the team was ranked but obviously bad or injured (ie, Mississippi St. this year)

2022:

- FSU: Loss, Opening neutral site game to kick-off Kelly era

- #7 Ole Miss: Win

- #6 Alabama: Win (in OT), kept season alive technically

- #1 UGA: Loss, big underdogs but SECCG to punch our way in

2023:

- #8 Florida State: Loss by 20 points

- #20 Ole Miss: Loss, needed to avoid a second loss so we didn't have two going into October to start the year

- #21 Missouri: Win to stay alive

- #8 Alabama: Loss by 14 points

2024:

- #23 USC: Opening game neutral site loss

- #9 Ole Miss: OT Win

- #14 A&M: Loss by 15

- #11 Alabama: Loss by 30

2025:

- #4 Clemson: Win (I get they're bad but this was big at the time)

- #13 Ole Miss: Loss

- #17 Vandy (when they were good): Loss

- #3 A&M: Loss by 24 at home, fired coach

- #4 Alabama: Loss

2026:

- #8 Ole Miss: Loss

- Kentucky: Loss, they weren't ranked when we played them, but we all understood it would be the hardest of the next three and that they were a solid team playing at night when we already had an SEC loss on our belt.

- #5 Alabama: Loss

And we are already 4pt favorites against Texas.

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His stats were good before these two games, even on 3rd down. One of the best in the conference.

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This is my exact point. And yet he still could not get a stop against Kentucky and Ole Miss when it mattered most.

I wrote about this 3 weeks ago (LINK

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Over the following 3 weeks, everyone here is going to forget. We’re going to beat Miss. St. They are injured offensively and we are double digit favorites at home. Auburn is absolutely horrific. Baker’s defense will look good these weeks, his stats will build back up. We’ll probably show, by the numbers, that we technically have a top 10 defense. Then we have the bye week, more time passes. People enjoy Halloween, maybe Baker is in the back of your mind, it slowly slips away. By that point, everyone on this board will have turned back into a positiger and completely forget what Baker is capable of.

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Just as I predicted. We destroyed State and Auburn. And our defense, technically, is top 10 by most metrics. But do not forget. Blake Baker is 100% capable of losing this game for us just as he did many times before. This needs to be front of mind for everyone. Do not come running to the scoreboard thread when we can’t get off the field on 3rd down and their QB is scrambling all over us.

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First time lsu has been favored since 2007

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Crazy that we were 5.5pt dogs in 2019. Market took a while to realize how good that team was and honestly never caught up - we were only -3.5 against Clemson.

An "early line" that is three weeks early and has virtually no volume means nothing and is only offered by a select few books.

Also when I think of an "opening line", I really think of what the books post sunday afternoon / monday morning the week of, not some look-ahead line three weeks in advance.