Craw_Dad
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| Number of Posts: | 30 |
| Registered on: | 10/2/2025 |
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re: In the Age of NIL, SEC supremacy is dead
Posted by Craw_Dad on 12/24/25 at 12:01 pm to Porter Osborne Jr
Current odds for SEC to win the national title are +300.
The implied probability of a +300 bet is 25%.
25% chance of the SEC winning the national title. Those odds aren't short
The implied probability of a +300 bet is 25%.
25% chance of the SEC winning the national title. Those odds aren't short
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re: In the Age of NIL, SEC supremacy is dead
Posted by Craw_Dad on 12/24/25 at 10:08 am to ukraine_rebel
I acknowledged that this season isn't over but that the odds of an SEC champ are long.
January '22 is the end of the '21 season, the first year of NIL. That's why I started with UGA's championship in January '22. That was the first NIL-era title
January '22 is the end of the '21 season, the first year of NIL. That's why I started with UGA's championship in January '22. That was the first NIL-era title
re: In the Age of NIL, SEC supremacy is dead
Posted by Craw_Dad on 12/24/25 at 9:07 am to southendzoneresident
You make some great points. Thanks.
It will be interesting to watch things unfold over the next few years
It will be interesting to watch things unfold over the next few years
Settle down. It's okay to debate someone who has a different opinion without calling their argument shite, incompetent or labeling them a troll. We don't do well when we exit our echo chambers.
I'm basing my argument on 3 years- 75% of NIL's total existence.
I agree that it's difficult to have certainty after a few years, but we can talk about things in the moment. No rules saying you have to hold assessment for a decade.
The early returns for the SEC aren't promising.
Great SEC football games week in and week out. Maybe that should be the standard and how the conference is judged. I can buy that. I loved the conference regular season. The best ever, IMO. But not the dominant teams of the past.
I'm basing my argument on 3 years- 75% of NIL's total existence.
I agree that it's difficult to have certainty after a few years, but we can talk about things in the moment. No rules saying you have to hold assessment for a decade.
The early returns for the SEC aren't promising.
Great SEC football games week in and week out. Maybe that should be the standard and how the conference is judged. I can buy that. I loved the conference regular season. The best ever, IMO. But not the dominant teams of the past.
re: In the Age of NIL, SEC supremacy is dead
Posted by Craw_Dad on 12/24/25 at 8:30 am to ukraine_rebel
22: UGA
23: Michigan
24: OSU
25: Likely to be a non-SEC team.
I count 1/4 but I'm relying on my public school math education.
23: Michigan
24: OSU
25: Likely to be a non-SEC team.
I count 1/4 but I'm relying on my public school math education.
It's fun to label something wrong without any data to back up your claim, but it isn't very convincing.
The SEC hasn't won a championship the past 2 years. Wasn't even represented in the game last year (although some former SEC transfers did figure prominently). The conference likely won't win this year.
You're telling me things haven't changed and the SEC is just as dominant? The results say otherwise.
The SEC hasn't won a championship the past 2 years. Wasn't even represented in the game last year (although some former SEC transfers did figure prominently). The conference likely won't win this year.
You're telling me things haven't changed and the SEC is just as dominant? The results say otherwise.
re: In the Age of NIL, SEC supremacy is dead
Posted by Craw_Dad on 12/24/25 at 8:06 am to scottydoesntknow
Agree, but the dominant championship teams that outclassed everyone else are gone.
The depth is gone. Paid to start elsewhere. To yourr point, thinner depth makes the gauntlet difficult to conquer.
All this means no more dominant teams toying with the rest of college football.
How did SEC top programs accumulate such a talent advantage prior to NIL and why can't they maintain it now?
The depth is gone. Paid to start elsewhere. To yourr point, thinner depth makes the gauntlet difficult to conquer.
All this means no more dominant teams toying with the rest of college football.
How did SEC top programs accumulate such a talent advantage prior to NIL and why can't they maintain it now?
In the Age of NIL, SEC supremacy is dead
Posted by Craw_Dad on 12/24/25 at 7:39 am
2006-2021: An SEC team won 12x, compared to 4 champs from all other conferences.
Since NIL implementation in July 2021: The SEC has won 1 championship and odds are against a win this year. That's 1/4.
SEC football is very good, but the days of dominance over the rest of the sport are over. Anybody think they know why?
What advantage did the SEC enjoy over the rest of college football that the conference no longer has?
Since NIL implementation in July 2021: The SEC has won 1 championship and odds are against a win this year. That's 1/4.
SEC football is very good, but the days of dominance over the rest of the sport are over. Anybody think they know why?
What advantage did the SEC enjoy over the rest of college football that the conference no longer has?
re: Tamu Fans, based on the game I saw, even average game manager QB play and you win by 2tds,
Posted by Craw_Dad on 12/21/25 at 3:21 pm to lewis and herschel
quote:
Miami’s OC did shield his QB — by leaning into what worked and never asking him to win the game on his arm. That’s coaching. A&M kept banging their head into a wall and let their QB wear it.
A&M ran the ball 35 times. Miami ran it 28 times.
re: Tamu Fans, based on the game I saw, even average game manager QB play and you win by 2tds,
Posted by Craw_Dad on 12/21/25 at 1:58 pm to lewis and herschel
The personal dig seems superfluous, but we all make our choices.
Your take doesn't acknowledge the defense the qb played against. Miami's defense was elite and forced those struggles.
The OC masking inefficiencies? A&M rushed 35 times for just 89 yards (2.5 yards per carry) while Miami ran 28 times for 175 yards (6.3 per carry). A&M didn't abandon the run despite awful efficiency. 6.3 per rush would have made it much easier to mask Reed's inefficiencies.
Giving A&M a hypothetical better QB while ignoring Miami's actual dominant defensive performance isn't a high level of analysis.
Your take doesn't acknowledge the defense the qb played against. Miami's defense was elite and forced those struggles.
The OC masking inefficiencies? A&M rushed 35 times for just 89 yards (2.5 yards per carry) while Miami ran 28 times for 175 yards (6.3 per carry). A&M didn't abandon the run despite awful efficiency. 6.3 per rush would have made it much easier to mask Reed's inefficiencies.
Giving A&M a hypothetical better QB while ignoring Miami's actual dominant defensive performance isn't a high level of analysis.
re: Tamu Fans, based on the game I saw, even average game manager QB play and you win by 2tds,
Posted by Craw_Dad on 12/21/25 at 12:32 pm to lewis and herschel
Beck threw for 103 yds. Nothing average about that
re: Tamu Fans, based on the game I saw, even average game manager QB play and you win by 2tds,
Posted by Craw_Dad on 12/21/25 at 12:27 pm to lewis and herschel
How much does Miami win by with average qb play?
quote:
Stupid Question
Pretty hostile.
I didn't say anything about A&M fans comments. A&M is ranked 19 in total defense. Schedule of offenses might be a big factor in that.
Settle down and enjoy the game and the build up to it. Days like today are why fandom is so fun.
Is the A&M Defense Fraudulent?
Posted by Craw_Dad on 12/20/25 at 7:09 am
Heard this on Warren Sharp podcast previewing today's game.
Notre Dame (4) and Arkansas (27) are the top 2 offenses A&M has played.
Notre Dame scored 41 points
Arkansas scored 42 points
Miami ranks 20 in total offense.
Beck's Achilles heel has been turnovers. A&M's defense has 3 int all season.
Might be some points scored today.
Notre Dame (4) and Arkansas (27) are the top 2 offenses A&M has played.
Notre Dame scored 41 points
Arkansas scored 42 points
Miami ranks 20 in total offense.
Beck's Achilles heel has been turnovers. A&M's defense has 3 int all season.
Might be some points scored today.
By how much is Indiana favored vs OU/Bama?
Posted by Craw_Dad on 12/16/25 at 9:14 am
I'll guess 6.5.
Gonna be a lot of shock and indignation around here when that line comes out but it will probably grow much quieter after Indiana pushes them around for 4 quarters
Gonna be a lot of shock and indignation around here when that line comes out but it will probably grow much quieter after Indiana pushes them around for 4 quarters
Going to be an uphill battle to convince a court that it's reasonable to expect $390,000 because a player left after you had paid them $30,000.
Maybe, but it's a tough sell to claim Wilson leaving resulted in that type of harm. Wilson didn't take all that money with him. The collective still had it in their bank account and likely spent it on a different player.
Interesting case to follow.
Maybe, but it's a tough sell to claim Wilson leaving resulted in that type of harm. Wilson didn't take all that money with him. The collective still had it in their bank account and likely spent it on a different player.
Interesting case to follow.
I recognize it feels good to have a coach very publicly choose you over a conference rival. When that shine wears off, are you confident in the coach?
Are you confident he'll bring LSU back to title contention? Are you confident he'll stick around to see that goal through?
Save the chest thumping. How does this look in 36 months?
Are you confident he'll bring LSU back to title contention? Are you confident he'll stick around to see that goal through?
Save the chest thumping. How does this look in 36 months?
Remember when people tried to say Mateer was a Heisman candidate?
Posted by Craw_Dad on 11/23/25 at 1:56 pm
My word. Does Oklahoma even want that guy back in '26? The Mateer-led offense is what makes this OU team an also-ran.
Everyone told me the Florida is way better than the Ole Miss and Missouri jobs because of Steve Spurrier and decades-old Heismans.
Legends in their own minds.
Legends in their own minds.
re: Why are there not more posts about the biggest SEC game this weekend?
Posted by Craw_Dad on 10/23/25 at 5:40 pm to Gator Fever
Hoping for a game outcome that means your team is less likely to hire a coach to replace your recently fired coach.
Whew. That is a tough spot to be in.
Whew. That is a tough spot to be in.
Florida isn't a better job than Ole Miss or Missouri
Posted by Craw_Dad on 10/21/25 at 8:20 am
Kiffin and Drink are both paid $9mil. Napier was at $7.3. Some of that is timing of the contract, but the money won't be better at Florida.
MU and Ole Miss have demonstrated they have the booster support to pay for top tier rosters and assistants.
Kiffin and Drinkwitz are the singular voice of their programs. No meddling boosters who think they should be the decision makers.
The NIL era has ushered in a new paradigm. We saw it with Cignetti and we will continue to see it. "Blue Blood" programs with sky high and immediate expectations aren't as desirable as they once were.
Convince me. Why is Florida the better job? Your answer shouldn't include anything about the accomplishments of Steve Spurrier. Today's recruits weren't alive for that.
**Update**
You all are wildly unconvincing. Most of the contrary arguments fell into one of 2 buckets:
1. Florida is better because it's the University of Florida!!! Thanks for that analysis.
2. Florida is better because it won national championships in '96, '06 and '08. Sorry to p!ss in your cheerios, but a program's success 20 and 30 years ago is way down on the list of basic coach priorities. How much are you paying me and my staff? What are your facilities like? Does your program give my players a platform to develop and advance to pro football? Like it or not, Florida isn't ahead of OM or MU on any of those priorities.
MU and Ole Miss have demonstrated they have the booster support to pay for top tier rosters and assistants.
Kiffin and Drinkwitz are the singular voice of their programs. No meddling boosters who think they should be the decision makers.
The NIL era has ushered in a new paradigm. We saw it with Cignetti and we will continue to see it. "Blue Blood" programs with sky high and immediate expectations aren't as desirable as they once were.
Convince me. Why is Florida the better job? Your answer shouldn't include anything about the accomplishments of Steve Spurrier. Today's recruits weren't alive for that.
**Update**
You all are wildly unconvincing. Most of the contrary arguments fell into one of 2 buckets:
1. Florida is better because it's the University of Florida!!! Thanks for that analysis.
2. Florida is better because it won national championships in '96, '06 and '08. Sorry to p!ss in your cheerios, but a program's success 20 and 30 years ago is way down on the list of basic coach priorities. How much are you paying me and my staff? What are your facilities like? Does your program give my players a platform to develop and advance to pro football? Like it or not, Florida isn't ahead of OM or MU on any of those priorities.
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