bigjoe1

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I dont think a VP should be doing the DOJ and FBIs jobs. But nowadays whatever works I guess..

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Traders have poured a record $977 million into the ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil ETF (SCO), a leveraged bet that oil prices will collapse from their war-driven highs. Despite the high-volume, double-leveraged bet, the ETF still dropped 41% in March, its worst month in nearly six years, highlighting the ETF’s high risk in volatile markets. Oil prices have pulled back from recent highs after U.S. President Donald Trump announced that he is looking to wind up the Iran war soon.

The ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil ETF is a leveraged, inverse ETF designed to deliver twice the inverse of the daily performance of the Bloomberg Commodity Balanced WTI Crude Oil Index. It is used to profit from falling oil prices or hedge long positions



However, its leveraged nature, coupled with the fact that the fund seeks daily, not long-term, inverse results, means that traders who hold longer than one day can still book huge losses despite a general downtrend in oil prices.

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While some traders are gambling on a re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz and swift normalization of supply, the experts have warned that damaged infrastructure and logistics mean that oil prices are likely to remain elevated for long, creating a dangerous trap for the bears.

The Strait of Hormuz remains "practically closed," with tanker traffic plunging by 95% from 130 crossings per day in February to just 6 in March. Major facilities, including Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG complex and refineries in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, have suffered direct hits, reducing output and requiring repairs that may take years.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that the blockade has cut off ~ 8 million barrels of crude per day from global markets which cannot be easily replaced. Many analysts now see $80–$85 per barrel as the "new normal" for Brent crude even if the conflict eases, thanks to embedded risk premiums and the need for massive inventory restocking.

By Alex Kimani for Oilprice.com

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Who believes him?

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So they just going to leave it unfinished?

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What was the purpose of Israel knocking out power in Tehran tonight temporarily. What did they get in or out? Was it a test run?

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Russia’s oil exporters are warning buyers that cargoes from its key Baltic ports may not be delivered at all.

Russian producers are now saying they may declare force majeure on cargoes from key Baltic Sea ports after a sustained wave of Ukrainian drone strikes knocked out critical infrastructure this week.

The epicenter is Ust-Luga, one of Russia’s most important export terminals, where oil loadings have been halted since Wednesday following repeated strikes from Ukraine and a fire that, as of Friday, was still burning. Industry sources told Reuters that shipments may not resume until mid-April.

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Nearby Primorsk—another backbone of Russia’s Baltic export system—has fared only marginally better. It sustained damage but has partially resumed loadings. Even so, partial is doing a lot of work here. Together, the two ports represent a massive share of Russia’s seaborne crude and product flows.

Reuters calculations suggest up to 40% of Russia’s oil export capacity is currently offline when factoring in port outages, pipeline disruptions, and tanker seizures.

And yet, paradoxically, Russia is making more money.

With Brent pushing past $100 and Urals crude reportedly trading near that same level amid a war-driven supply crunch, Moscow is seeing a surge in oil revenues. The spike has already prompted the Kremlin to shelve planned budget tightening and reconsider spending priorities, including military outlays.

Prices are papering over operational damage for now, but there is a limit.

Ukraine seems to be targeting Russia’s export capacity. President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has signaled that long-range strikes are designed to sustain pressure precisely as sanctions enforcement loosens and Russian barrels make their way back into global markets.

Russia can attempt to reroute flows through alternative outlets, including Black Sea ports or inland networks. But capacity is finite, and those routes are already under strain.

The potential force majeure announcement comes at a time when the oil market is already under strain. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has already taken a significant chunk of oil and LNG supply off the market. Now layer in Russian export outages, and the result is a system with very little slack.

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Russia’s oil exporters are warning buyers that cargoes from its key Baltic ports may not be delivered at all.

Russian producers are now saying they may declare force majeure on cargoes from key Baltic Sea ports after a sustained wave of Ukrainian drone strikes knocked out critical infrastructure this week.

The epicenter is Ust-Luga, one of Russia’s most important export terminals, where oil loadings have been halted since Wednesday following repeated strikes from Ukraine and a fire that, as of Friday, was still burning. Industry sources told Reuters that shipments may not resume until mid-April.

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Nearby Primorsk—another backbone of Russia’s Baltic export system—has fared only marginally better. It sustained damage but has partially resumed loadings. Even so, partial is doing a lot of work here. Together, the two ports represent a massive share of Russia’s seaborne crude and product flows.

Reuters calculations suggest up to 40% of Russia’s oil export capacity is currently offline when factoring in port outages, pipeline disruptions, and tanker seizures.

And yet, paradoxically, Russia is making more money.

With Brent pushing past $100 and Urals crude reportedly trading near that same level amid a war-driven supply crunch, Moscow is seeing a surge in oil revenues. The spike has already prompted the Kremlin to shelve planned budget tightening and reconsider spending priorities, including military outlays.

Prices are papering over operational damage for now, but there is a limit.

Ukraine seems to be targeting Russia’s export capacity. President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has signaled that long-range strikes are designed to sustain pressure precisely as sanctions enforcement loosens and Russian barrels make their way back into global markets.

Russia can attempt to reroute flows through alternative outlets, including Black Sea ports or inland networks. But capacity is finite, and those routes are already under strain.

The potential force majeure announcement comes at a time when the oil market is already under strain. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has already taken a significant chunk of oil and LNG supply off the market. Now layer in Russian export outages, and the result is a system with very little slack.

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