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GoogleAI seems to have tweaked this a bit more east, landing in Navarre.

It seems to think it’ll flirt with cat 3 a bit before shear takes back over
Yeah. This would absolutely be a monster without it.
I’m not sure what you’re getting at.

I’m saying talarico, from a democrat perspective, is primarily trying to get the gop to spend money on Texas instead of other races
Extended storm surge warning a bit east, so doubling down on an easterly wobble.

12z ICON basically unchanged the last 3 runs. It’s made its call.
Storm2k kinda sucks tbh, bunch of retards quoting recon readings and spamming emojis as if they know anything

It’s really just good as a resource for those recon readings and some model discussion
Talaricos primary purpose is to siphon money away from other races.

Trump wants them to debate for the publicity and save them some $$$ for other races they might actually lose.
Models have this making landfall around 10pm-4am Fri/sat

Impossible to say regarding the flight but I would try to find and earlier flight out of BR if possible.
Surge 5-7ft:

LINK

Rainfall 4-6” (giggity): LINK

Wind will probably be TS force at peak, briefly, unless this bombs out
Most of the physics models have this onshoring in Baldwin co/escambia co fl.

The euro is off in left field (pun intended) having this onshore around ocean springs.

All physics models have this between a weak cat 2 or weak cat 1 at landfall.

AI still has this around okaloosa co very weak, MB1005 at landfall.

Definitely will be interesting to see which ends up being right.
AiGFS agrees with ICON on general landfall location but thinks it will be weaker at 995 MB.

Traditional GFS has this around GS in the 980s.

At this point, I’m inclined to believe ICON/AIGFS
00z ICON still has this hitting around gulf breeze at 988 MB.

GFS is running.
Nothing meaningful right now. Next nhc and model runs are 10pm cst
This is very true. It saves us on the coast but presents an inland threat.
Slightly edited meme is relevant here



Gas prices and inflation lower purchasing power.
Nah they’re gonna play it and blame the result on the storm, so it’s like whoever lost didn’t really lose
It’s blowing up but you can see the shear eating at it at the same time.

We’re definitely being saved a bit. This thing would bomb otherwise.