melrose
| Favorite team: | LSU  |
| Location: | Alabama |
| Biography: | |
| Interests: | |
| Occupation: | |
| Number of Posts: | 29 |
| Registered on: | 11/29/2007 |
| Online Status: | Not Online |
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Just a joke about the wording -- the tribe was not named for the football team.
1
re: How far is this garbage going?
Posted by melrose on 6/25/20 at 4:17 pm to MullenBoys
quote:
the Seminole Tribe said it was an honor to have their tribe named for a Ncaa program.
I wasn't a history major, but I'm almost sure this isn't right.
If we can't agree that there are actual health experts and an actual pandemic, it's probably the case that we won't agree on much. Same for viewing mask-wearing, social distancing, and hand-washing as extreme measures.
The article below might interest those who argue that the flu is comparable to COVID as far as risk is concerned. It might be that one reason for this is the comparison of deaths from each isn't really apples to apples.
COVID is worse than the flu.
The article below might interest those who argue that the flu is comparable to COVID as far as risk is concerned. It might be that one reason for this is the comparison of deaths from each isn't really apples to apples.
COVID is worse than the flu.
re: As much as I want an LSU football season
Posted by melrose on 6/23/20 at 9:44 am to tigahlovah
from Scientific American
This article gives a balanced discussion of some of the many difficulties in collecting good data on COVID-19 deaths -- some that could cause overestimates and some that would include underestimates. It uses excess mortality as a way of estimating likely COVID-19 deaths, and the conclusion is that (as of the date of publication) COVID-19 deaths are likely being undercounted overall.
The article addresses some really interesting issues with using excess mortality in this way, including the fact that some excess deaths during COVID-19 can be attributed to non-COVID causes like heart disease in people who may have been too worried about COVID to go to the hospital. Other causes of death, like car accidents, have actually decreased during the pandemic.
As a general comment, I think balancing public risk of deaths from COVID against the very real economic impacts of shutting down all or part of the economy to be a serious, complicated question about which well-meaning people can disagree. What I don't understand are the people who are most insistent on opening the economy quickly also refusing to follow simple guidance that will make that possible: wear a mask, socially distance, and wash your hands.
This article gives a balanced discussion of some of the many difficulties in collecting good data on COVID-19 deaths -- some that could cause overestimates and some that would include underestimates. It uses excess mortality as a way of estimating likely COVID-19 deaths, and the conclusion is that (as of the date of publication) COVID-19 deaths are likely being undercounted overall.
The article addresses some really interesting issues with using excess mortality in this way, including the fact that some excess deaths during COVID-19 can be attributed to non-COVID causes like heart disease in people who may have been too worried about COVID to go to the hospital. Other causes of death, like car accidents, have actually decreased during the pandemic.
As a general comment, I think balancing public risk of deaths from COVID against the very real economic impacts of shutting down all or part of the economy to be a serious, complicated question about which well-meaning people can disagree. What I don't understand are the people who are most insistent on opening the economy quickly also refusing to follow simple guidance that will make that possible: wear a mask, socially distance, and wash your hands.
I'm not sure if a team has even had the ball with a chance to go ahead in the 4th unless it was really early. Maybe Florida with a chance to tie or go ahead with a 2 point conversion midway through?
re: Biggest upsets in sports history
Posted by melrose on 6/23/19 at 1:04 pm to Rohan Gravy
Rulon Gardner over Alexander Karelin at the 2000 Summer Olympics.
For those who enjoy statistics, this is a fun site to play around with: MLB Win/Run Expectancy.
Though the numbers are based on MLB statistics, the conclusions should be close. Down 2 with runners on 1st and 2nd with no outs in the bottom of the 9th, the home team's probability of winning the game is right at 30%. Assuming a successful sacrifice leaving runners on 2nd and 3rd with one out, the probability of winning drops to a little less than 28%. Even a successful sacrifice leaves the team worse off, and of course there's a decent chance that the sacrifice would fail. All of the numbers assume an average pitcher facing an average hitter.
Given all of this, it looks like PM's decision not to sacrifice was the correct one regardless of the outcome. At least it definitely wasn't a bad call.
Though the numbers are based on MLB statistics, the conclusions should be close. Down 2 with runners on 1st and 2nd with no outs in the bottom of the 9th, the home team's probability of winning the game is right at 30%. Assuming a successful sacrifice leaving runners on 2nd and 3rd with one out, the probability of winning drops to a little less than 28%. Even a successful sacrifice leaves the team worse off, and of course there's a decent chance that the sacrifice would fail. All of the numbers assume an average pitcher facing an average hitter.
Given all of this, it looks like PM's decision not to sacrifice was the correct one regardless of the outcome. At least it definitely wasn't a bad call.
Howard Carter, what a shot, all the way from the parking lot! Hi-C!
re: Colley rankings
Posted by melrose on 10/3/18 at 9:10 am to airfernando
quote:
that's as stupid a poll as there has ever been.
It definitely produces surprising results sometimes, particularly early in the season. But it's not trying to be predictive -- it's only measuring what teams have actually accomplished on the field (with no margin of victory component) in terms of wins/losses, their opponents wins/losses, the wins/losses of their opponents' opponents, etc. I'd argue that the fact that it gives surprising results sometimes is a strength because it can point out cases where "the eye test" isn't sufficient.
Regarding the UCF ranking of #1 from last year, that qualifies as a surprising result and it's not one I agree with. But it isn't crazy -- losing games matters. UCF was the only team that didn't lose a game, and they beat some quality opponents.
Colley rankings
Posted by melrose on 10/3/18 at 8:19 am
Even though the BCS rankings are no longer with us, I still enjoy checking in on my favorite ranking method,the Colley Matrix, which is based purely on a team's record and who they've beaten. Some interesting results this week: LINK .
It really is roll-on-the-floor funny that fans of other SEC schools post in a thread on the SEC Rant. Oops, I did it again.
re: Tough road to get there, but if there is justice we will see Ole Miss again
Posted by melrose on 9/23/15 at 6:54 am to antibarner
If there is any justice Alabama wouldn't even have to play games -- they would just be crowned champion every year. Since they are so obviously the better team win or lose, this would save a lot of injuries and would keep teams that luck into beating them (but only on the score board) from wasting energy on their false sense of superiority. Everybody wins.
re: Is a team really that good when they win only by six points despite having a +5
Posted by melrose on 9/21/15 at 5:47 pm to Tornado Alley
No worries! I don't blame anyone after this near-perfect weekend. LSU embarrasses Auburn, Ole Miss embarrasses Bama, and Texas and USC both lose.
re: Is a team really that good when they win only by six points despite having a +5
Posted by melrose on 9/21/15 at 5:42 pm to Tornado Alley
Seems a little harsh, but okay. I'll get back to studying the rule book?
re: Is a team really that good when they win only by six points despite having a +5
Posted by melrose on 9/21/15 at 5:29 pm to Tornado Alley
I know it was tipped forward, but I thought the announcers said it had to be intentionally batted. I don't actually know the rule, but I couldn't tell that it was an "intentional bat".
Ole Miss did not "get every break." Bama got plenty, including two passes that hit Ole Miss defenders in the numbers and were dropped. At least one of those drives continued for a Bama touchdown. Maybe the other one did too, I don't remember. The onside kick was certainly a break for Bama. As much as Ole Miss was fortunate to win, Bama was fortunate not to get blown out.
To be fair, 97 yards is a lot to expect on 4 plays.
Alabama fan on HWY 31 in Birmingham
Posted by melrose on 11/19/12 at 6:21 pm
I'm driving up over the mountain today during rush hour in Birmingham on HWY 31, and I notice that on the other side of the highway is a pulled-over vehicle. There's a 60-ish looking man walking from the vehicle across the highway to get something that I can't see because of the concrete divider. I'm thinking, "Wow, that's really dangerous -- he must have lost a tire or something." I keep watching, and as I'm about to pass by I see him pick up the item and walk back across while the oncoming traffic has to brake to avoid hitting him. The item was a cheap plastic Alabama car flag. Awesome.
I thought the coaches did use at least a new wrinkle to help win the Auburn game -- the throw back to Spencer Ware in the 4th quarter. It was also set up nicely by the previous roll outs (that had me scratching my head at the time).
re: Tennessee's ready
Posted by melrose on 9/29/10 at 7:02 pm to AlanRainman
I hope Tennessee is also not skeered to throw at Peterson. It would really be unmanly to do anything but throw to his man all day.
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