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re: Best SEC rivalry

Posted by Carolina_Tiger on 4/22/25 at 8:51 am
don't rly wanna rank Red River it's not SEC yet to me... or Aggie/Horns for that matter...

Iron Bowl
Egg Bowl
Cocktail Party

Deep South
Third Saturday

everything else is minor league
SEC gonna get 5 of the top 8 national seeds, Oregon St will get 1, ACC will get 2. LSU stays top 4 of the SEC that should be enough to book it, something like 18-12 SEC play should do. Win 3 of the 4 series and it's sealed. 2-2 might be enough too
if this post is sparked by Buzz leaving then in fairness to Aggie I don't think Buzz was a true long-term answer for MBB, he left A&M similarly to how he left Marquette and VTech. the way Schloss left could be regarded as stepping stone for sure but I don't think any other Aggie coach in recent memory in the big sports was taken bc of how well they did at A&M

A&M simply doesn't hire that well across the board. It's hard to hit home run hires in all 3 sports, Aggie just hasn't hired amazing candidates recently. getting a new AD would be a way to change the program for the better
wasn't my favorite color guy ever but can't argue against him being one of the faces of SEC football for a long time. travel in the Big 10 couldn't have been attractive for someone in their 70s
Historically yes State has had the worse program football wise, recently they've been usually better than UNC. Duke fluctuates between success and the end of the Cutcliffe years were really bad there. Either way all 3 haven't been great but State is probably the best

However it's basketball that runs the Triangle and NCSU is the clear little brother to UNC, I dont think Duke really cares about NCSU just UNC

the best picks historically are probably A&M or Wash State
Brees and Fitzgerald first-ballot locks. Gore will likely make it but probably not first-time around, lots of names that probably should make it but aren't in yet that might take his place Kuechly, Suggs, Reggie Wayne, Holt etc
Cooley is a stud, got recruited to play nickel but can play all DB. 21st rated corner out of 546 P5 CB's according to PFF
schedule is much tougher next year, @ Clemson Bama and OM all hard games, plus Vandy with Pavia. UF and SC at home too

OL and S are big concerns, S especially has guys in the portal, Stroman from VT or one of the NCSU guys, apparently their nickel Cooley is visiting LSU this week. DL should be improved, wish we had another stud LB to pair with Weeks

I see 9-3 which may be good enough but may not be, we'll see. 10-2 with our schedule is a lock
they are really good. Tigers I think can keep it close but I'd expect Pitt to be in the top 4 of the ACC this year. go 1-1 and you have the makings of a good resume in place from the non-con portion
she's been on the ballot once before and she lost to a pretty beatable candidate. speaks volumes to what voters think of her that Trump's 6 points ahead of her here
all numbers from NBC... 146k estimated left in all of NV...

roughly 105k from Clark and Washoe which are breaking for Rosen at a combined 52.5% clip, if that holds then Rosen would grab a net margin of 5500 votes roughly

roughly 41k from the rest of the state, which is going for Brown at roughly a 70% clip, if that holds then Brown would take a net margin of about 10000 votes

this would give him the election, but it's also likely that the mail-in left in Clark will go farther Rosen than just +6 so it'll be very tight
southern border counties being blue is just wild to see

33 point swing in Latino male voters Biden +23 to Trump +10

absolutely bonkers
if she had picked Shapiro she could've won PA the dude is really popular there

picking Walz offered no upside to a campaign that already had none

Some takeaways from last night

Posted by Carolina_Tiger on 11/6/24 at 8:36 am
1) Blue states trending red:
- Kamala only won NJ by 5. Biden won NJ by 16 in 2020
- Kamala won IL by 8. Biden won IL by 17 in 2020
- Kamala won VA by 5. Biden won VA by 10 in 2020

All of these states trending right is what's giving Trump the popular vote win he didn't get in 2016. Pretty significant

2) Exit poll data
- Kamala won young voters (18-29) by 13. Biden won 18-29 by 23 in 2020.
- Latinos went for Kamala by 8. Biden won Latino voters by 32 points in 2020. Latino men went for Trump by 10. They went for Biden by 23 in 2020
- 45% of American voters felt they were in worse shape than four years ago. Of those, 80% went Trump.
- Trump flipped the suburbs. Suburban voters went Biden 50-48 in 2020, they went Trump 50-48 last night

Just some absolutely wild swings, especially with Latinos. Abortion appears to still be a big issue for Republicans (66% believe it should be legal, with 69% of those voters going Kamala), but it appears pollsters vastly overestimated its importance compared to the economy or immigration. Great stuff for election nerds like myself

re: WTF happened in Senate

Posted by Carolina_Tiger on 11/6/24 at 6:53 am
quote:

But NC did it with the governor


two things

A) Mark Robinson was a far worse candidate than the others. he had no chance for months, lost by nearly 15 points

B) ticket-splitters are pretty common in NC. This happened in 2016 and 2020 as well, when Trump won the state both times but Roy Cooper also got elected twice. it's also happened with senate seats

Meck County (Charlotte) only 18% in, Dem stronghold

Wake County (Raleigh) mostly in, but NC has rural areas that vote Blue, not all in.

Will be closer than margin in GA
Gwinnett's got about 23% left, Harris performing at roughly the same clip as Biden in 2020. lot of state went to the right. it'll be close but I don't think she has the vote

NYT needle spiking Trump in GA

Posted by Carolina_Tiger on 11/5/24 at 9:27 pm
Now very likely to win, +95% chance

Trump outperforming 2020 in most counties including Dekalb. Gwinnett dropped a lot and he's still got a good lead

re: NC governors race

Posted by Carolina_Tiger on 11/5/24 at 3:20 pm
Stein will win by at least 8+, Robinson ran a horrible campaign and couldn't stay out of controversies which is what you have to do in NC

I know many, many Trump voters who went Stein. Legislature will stay R so it will be more of the same as it was with Cooper

re: How do your lines look?

Posted by Carolina_Tiger on 11/5/24 at 8:23 am
NC, swing precinct

waited about 15 minutes or so. EV was massive here but roughly in line with what I waited in 2020