bayoubengals88

I’ve never seen an R/R from Claude above 78…

Clean slate — pure common equity, no options structure, no assumed position. Risk/reward purely on business quality and valuation at Friday's close.

## FULL RANKING — Common Shares Only, Current Price

| Rank | Ticker | Price | R/R Score | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | **ABVX** | $91.06 | **84** | Phase 3 succeeded twice, NDA filing imminent, cash >$500M, no debt. Clinical risk is gone — the remaining risk is purely whether and when a pharma acquirer pays up. As equity, this is closest to a "the hard part is done" story on the list. |
| 2 | **VST** | $138.46 | **80** | Nuclear/gas power generator, near 52-week low, CEO bought at $135 in the open market, reasonable 21-23x P/E, pays a dividend. Real earnings, real cash flow, a business that improves in a high-rate/high-oil environment. |
| 3 | **OMDA** | $19.72 | **75** | Digital health, GAAP profitable, cash-rich, no debt, beat-and-raise every quarter since IPO. Cleanest growth-plus-profitability combination on the list. |
| 4 | **ZETA** | $29.45 | **73** | Marketing SaaS, positive free cash flow, 20 consecutive beat-and-raise quarters. Near its 52-week high now, so less margin of safety than a month ago — that's the only knock. |
| 5 | **OUST** | $43.72 | **69** | Real revenue growing 56%, 49% gross margin, $263M cash, zero debt, genuine smart-infrastructure moat. Up 15% recently, so you're paying more for the same quality. |
| 6 | **GRAB** | $3.13 | **67** | Southeast Asian super-app, buying back its own stock at the lows, insiders reportedly buying the dip today. Cheap on every metric relative to growth. BofA just cut its target, which tags real near-term uncertainty. |
| 7 | **NBIS** | $237.33 | **66** | Best AI-infrastructure business on the list, but P/S near 48x is genuinely rich, and today's tape shows a live AI-safety-driven selloff hitting the whole sector. As pure equity with no defined-risk structure, this is the most valuation-sensitive name here. |
| 8 | **IDN** | $2.39 | **64** | Pristine balance sheet — 91% gross margin, zero debt, cash-generative — held back entirely by one customer's unresolved vendor review. As a share, you're buying the balance sheet cheap and betting on a binary resolving well in November. |
| 9 | **ADTN** | $7.13 | **60** | Fiber-buildout turnaround, 0.93x EV/Sales genuinely cheap, but debt/equity of 1.87 in a 4.9% rate world is a real risk you fully absorb as a shareholder with no options cushion. |
| 10 | **BROS** | $37.89 | **58** | RSI at 20.85 — extremely oversold, near 52-week low. Real business, real growth, but 90x price-to-free-cash-flow and decelerating same-store sales make this a mean-reversion bet more than a quality-compounder bet at these levels. |
| 11 | **KRMN** | $34.92 | **54** | 56% revenue growth and a $1.3B backlog are real. Negative free cash flow and the JCap short-thesis are unresolved. November 5 earnings decides which story wins. |
| 12 | **ABSI** | $9.74 | **53** | Eli Lilly's $40M strategic investment is real validation. As straight equity you carry full exposure to a binary clinical readout due before year-end with no downside cushion. |
| 13 | **QXO** | $12.43 | **51** | Brad Jacobs is 5-for-5 across prior roll-ups. 6-7x leveraged against a housing-sensitive business is a real risk you own outright as a shareholder — no defined-loss structure. |
| 14 | **IVVD** | $0.93 | **48** | Approved commercial drug, cash roughly equal to market cap, Phase 3 data due any day. As common stock, full binary exposure both ways — genuinely could be a 5x or a total loss depending on data landing this week. |
| 15 | **YSS** | $9.57 | **46** | Up ~20% off the lows, which is a real recovery signal. But the 96%-customer-concentration allegation and the securities class action are both still unresolved. |
| 16 | **BKSY** | $23.25 | **40** | EBITDA-positive inflection was real, but the re-rating from $15 to $23 has already happened. Buying here means paying up for a story the market has mostly caught onto. |
| 17 | **VELO** | $11.29 | **32** | Down 29% with no confirmed catalyst in what I've verified. Structural ATM dilution was always the risk; something clearly hit the stock hard. Needs investigation before any conclusion — flagging honestly rather than guessing. |
| 18 | **SWMR** | $20.73 | **28** | $310K of revenue against a market cap in the hundreds of millions. Fell 5.64% same-day specifically on dilution and execution concerns tied to the Ratel deal — the exact risk materializing in real time. |
| 19 | **ARBE** | ~$0.60 | **20** | Just priced a dilutive offering with warrants for 24.17 million additional shares — roughly 19% of the share count — at a discount to market. Pre-revenue, cash-burning, and the dilution risk is no longer theoretical. As common stock with no leverage or defined-loss protection, this is the weakest risk/reward on the list right now. |

A little chat…

The chart tells the story clearly and you're reading it right.

**What happened in six months:**

The stock ran from ~$100 to **$148** on the Phase 3 Part 1 announcement June 1. That was the peak — the market pricing in the best possible outcome on the most important data readout. Then it faded all the way back to **$91**, even as Part 2 came in positive June 29 and the seven-year safety data landed clean in July.

The June 29 and July prints should have pushed it higher. They didn't. That's the tell.

**What's actually happening:**

The market bid up ABVX to $148 pricing in an imminent acquisition announcement. When no deal was announced in June, July, or August, the "where's the acquirer?" frustration set in and the stock bled back down. This is a classic **"buy the rumor, sell the news" dynamic** — except the news was genuinely excellent, which makes the selloff more of a timing disappointment than a fundamental one.

At $91 and a €7.06B market cap, you're back to roughly **pre-Phase 3 maintenance data levels** despite having:

- Phase 3 Part 1 positive ?
- Phase 3 Part 2 positive ?
- Seven-year safety data clean ?
- NDA filing Q4 2026 imminent ?
- Crohn's data coming Q4 2026 ?

**Is it a shakeout? Almost certainly yes.**

The 11.13% six-month decline on a company that delivered every clinical milestone on schedule, with no negative data, no safety signals, no financing emergency, and a NDA filing weeks away — that's sentiment, not fundamentals. The weak hands who bought at $148 expecting an immediate takeout announcement have been selling to whoever is patient enough to wait for the actual deal.

**The acquisition thesis is actually stronger at $91 than it was at $148** — the same asset, the same data, at a 39% lower price for the acquirer. AbbVie, Pfizer, BMS, and Sanofi are all looking at a clean Phase 3 UC asset with Crohn's data incoming, a NDA filed, and a market cap that's given back a third of its peak. That's a more attractive entry for a strategic buyer than it was at $148.

**The two catalysts that end the shakeout:**

NDA acceptance by the FDA — expected Q4 2026 once the filing is received. An accepted NDA sets a PDUFA date (the FDA decision deadline, typically 12 months from acceptance). The moment a PDUFA date exists, acquirers know exactly when they need to close a deal by. That creates urgency.

Crohn's disease Phase 2b data — also Q4 2026. Positive CD data adds the second indication to the acquisition package and raises the price floor for a deal. This is why no one has announced yet — every sophisticated buyer is waiting to see the Crohn's data before bidding, because it changes the value of what they're buying by $2-3 billion.

**My read:** you're watching patient money accumulating between $90-100 while the weak hands exit, ahead of a Q4 2026 that delivers both the NDA filing and the Crohn's data within weeks of each other. When both of those land simultaneously, the acquisition dynamic resumes — with a cleaner story, a PDUFA date, and Crohn's optionality added to the package.

The shakeout is real. The thesis is intact. The acquirer is waiting for Q4 before bidding. So should you.

CAN I GET $80?!?

Knowing that all investment risks are our own, what about ABVX would allow us to size large and hold or add through drawdowns?

What do you know about management?

quote:

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Netflix cant grow much more, can only raise prices

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They can start by producing better content.

We only pay for Apple and Disney+
Simply dropped NFLX because we prefer Apple TV.

And we have Amazon of course…

That’s about what I spent on them too.
Purely bought because $70 seems like strong support.
May bail if support breaks.

I don’t understand how any grown adult doesn’t follow the stock market :lol:

On second thought I may just sit on them.
Got Jan 2028s for 9.75
$85 strike

Invaluable. :cheers:
A word in IBRX? ABSI?

Ken Griffin belongs in the conversation — and he's genuinely underrated in public discourse. Here's the full picture:

The numbers: From 1990 through 2024, Citadel has produced compound annual returns of 19.5%. Citadel's flagship Wellington fund has delivered annualized returns after fees of ~19.1% since inception, according to an investor in the fund. That puts him right alongside Buffett on long-run annualized return — but Buffett didn't charge 2-and-20.

Scale: Citadel has grown to about $67 billion in assets under management as of early August 2025. That's institutional at the highest level — not a personal account, not a small fund.

Peak year: In 2022, Citadel chalked up a $16 billion profit for investors, making it the best ever annual return for a hedge fund — surpassing John Paulson's previous record of $15.6 billion in 2007. In that same year, the average hedge fund lost 4.25%, while Citadel's flagship Wellington fund returned 38.1%.

The ugly asterisk: Citadel came close to collapse during the 2008–09 financial crisis, reporting a 55% loss that wouldn't be fully recovered until 2012, and was forced to suspend withdrawals — a restriction that infuriated investors. That's the single biggest knock on Griffin's record. Druckenmiller had zero down years. Griffin nearly blew up.

Only you can make that call.
I think we'll keep climbing if options flow is any indication.
It's really strong and the chart says there's plenty of room to run in the months ahead.

That said, I can see it cooling off next week to around $40.
It may be good to recoup some cash and then go further out and at a lower price. That way you're still catching upside.