MikeinTN
| Favorite team: | Michigan  |
| Location: | Tennessee |
| Biography: | MTSU Grad |
| Interests: | CFB Stats |
| Occupation: | Insurance |
| Number of Posts: | 16 |
| Registered on: | 6/14/2019 |
| Online Status: | Not Online |
Recent Posts
Message
re: Hypothetical 16 Team Playoff If The Season Ended Today:
Posted by MikeinTN on 9/16/19 at 1:51 pm
@honeybadger07 I corrected the matchups for the bracket, as you pointed out it should have been LSU v Oklahoma and Wisconsin v Ohio State
LSU 47
Oklahoma 39
Wisconsin 35
Ohio State 16
Thanks for catching that!...
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re: Hypothetical 16 Team Playoff If The Season Ended Today:
Posted by MikeinTN on 9/16/19 at 11:24 am
You’re right it looks like I derped the seeds in the bracket branches. Thanks for the correction....
re: Updated 9/16, Opening line 19 now 24! over under 58 now 60 vs Vanderbilt
Posted by MikeinTN on 9/16/19 at 10:41 am
My projection says LSU 54-9...
re: Hypothetical 16 Team Playoff If The Season Ended Today:
Posted by MikeinTN on 9/16/19 at 10:24 am
Oregon and Wisconsin will come down to earth and it should be much more chalky in future weeks....
re: Hypothetical 16 Team Playoff If The Season Ended Today:
Posted by MikeinTN on 9/16/19 at 10:14 am
I created it. At the beginning I wanted to re-rank the national stat rankings based on opponents due to the wide variance in play styles, many of the gross numbers like pass yards per game are kind of meaningless, or at least could be more meaningful if adjusted by opponent.
The score projections...
Hypothetical 16 Team Playoff If The Season Ended Today:
Posted by MikeinTN on 9/16/19 at 10:02 am
I created a pace-adjusted computer projection model that spits out a unique final score for any FBS v FBS matchup. It’s basically a measurement strictly of on field performance adjusted by opponent, not roster talent or any other other subjective (but relevant) factors. Right now, some of the result...
re: Is there not a gambling board on here?
Posted by MikeinTN on 9/6/19 at 3:52 pm
Here are my picks this week:
Stanford +1 @ USC
Maryland -1.5 vs Syracuse
W. Michigan @ Michigan State, UNDER 46.5
Central Michigan +35 @ Wisconsin
Buffalo +29.5 @ Penn State
LSU @ Texas, UNDER 57.5
Michigan -22 vs Army
Texas A&M @ Clemson: UNDER 62.5
Here’s a link to the rest of my thoughts...
re: Week 1 College Football Lines aka The Offseason is Over No More Shatty Offseason Threads
Posted by MikeinTN on 8/26/19 at 11:03 am
My thoughts on the A&M line:
PROJECTION: Texas State 17 – (12) Texas A&M 36
Vegas sees this as Aggies -33.5 and a total of 57.5. The under seems like the play here, and I’d lean toward A&M minus 33.5 but can’t stomach that large of a number. The only thing I am confident in pointing out is that ...
re: Are we doing an ATS Pick-em this year?
Posted by MikeinTN on 8/26/19 at 10:58 am
For anyone who’s interested I’ve got a computer model and doing write ups on picks. Thursday game article is here: [link=(https://cfbstatnation.com/week-1-thursday-8-29-19-computer-model-betting-preview/)]LINK[/link]...
re: PFF Top 25
Posted by MikeinTN on 6/18/19 at 10:33 pm
Is this a final 2018 ranking or 2019 preseason?...
re: Returning Production for 2019: Offense
Posted by MikeinTN on 6/17/19 at 2:21 pm
“May have accentuated his worth” as you say is a very tricky thing to parse especially given this little nugget: no one attempted more FG’s per game against FBS teams than LSU- 2.3/game.
http://www.cfbstats.com/2018/leader/national/team/offense/split20/category07/sort02.html...
re: Returning Production for 2019: Offense
Posted by MikeinTN on 6/17/19 at 11:33 am
Thanks for the feedback, I changed the logo :)...
re: Returning Production for 2019: Offense
Posted by MikeinTN on 6/17/19 at 9:17 am
Thanks. Regardless of scheme, I think the main takeaway is that the pieces that produced are mostly all returning for 2019. Aside from how the team collectively performed compared to the rest of the nation, it seems reasonable to assume they will be capable of improving. Maybe it would also be reaso...
re: Returning Production for 2019: Offense
Posted by MikeinTN on 6/17/19 at 8:46 am
I don’t disagree that the 70+ point game could inflate the scoring impression, but I think the opponent adjusted yards/play (-0.06 vs FBS) does illustrate the way the offense struggled. Despite the context of OT being different and skewing the analysis a bit, points for/against is still the single m...
re: Returning Production for 2019: Offense
Posted by MikeinTN on 6/16/19 at 8:16 pm
Yes, I agree. Technically a special teams issue but as you say, a very relevant factor in the point total. I will have to think about that. Thanks for the feedback....
Returning Production for 2019: Offense
Posted by MikeinTN on 6/16/19 at 8:00 pm
Here’s an article I wrote looking at how the offense performed statistically in 2018 and how much of that production is returning for 2019. If Emery can step in and be a difference maker, watch out. That early game against Texas is going to be awesome.
https://cfbstatnation.com/returning-producti...
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