MikeinTN

You’re right it looks like I derped the seeds in the bracket branches. Thanks for the correction.

Oregon and Wisconsin will come down to earth and it should be much more chalky in future weeks.

I created a pace-adjusted computer projection model that spits out a unique final score for any FBS v FBS matchup. It’s basically a measurement strictly of on field performance adjusted by opponent, not roster talent or any other other subjective (but relevant) factors. Right now, some of the results are a bit outrageous, mostly because few teams have played 3 FBS opponents and some have only played 1, but week after week, the results will normalize.

That said, I thought it would be fun to simulate a 16 team playoff after each week with seeding based on the AP and then when it’s available, the CFP committee rankings. Some of the stranger outcomes are Oregon over Auburn and Clemson (hanging 77 on Nevada seems to skew reality here) and the Wisconsin defense dominating. Round 1 has some really spicy matchups and you’ll be interested to see how far LSU goes.

Round 1:
#8 Auburn v. #9 Florida
#7 Notre Dame v. #10 Utah
#6 Ohio State v. #11 Michigan
#5 Oklahoma v. #12 Texas
#4 LSU v. #13 Penn State
#3 Georgia v. #13 Wisconsin
#2 Alabama v. #15 UCF
#1 Clemson v. #16 Oregon

LINK

My thoughts on the A&M line:
PROJECTION: Texas State 17 – (12) Texas A&M 36

Vegas sees this as Aggies -33.5 and a total of 57.5. The under seems like the play here, and I’d lean toward A&M minus 33.5 but can’t stomach that large of a number. The only thing I am confident in pointing out is that Texas State’s offense was revoltingly bad, as in ranking in the 100’s in each of the 8 offensive categories I measure. Texas A&M’s defense is also strangely bipolar in that they ranked 4th and 6th in opponent adjusted rush yards per game and per play, but ranked 90th and 91st in those metrics versus the pass. I could see this ending up in the range of 45 – 7 with a 3/5 confidence in the under.
Thoughts on other lines for Thursday games:
LINK

Is this a final 2018 ranking or 2019 preseason?

Thanks for the feedback, I changed the logo :)

I don’t disagree that the 70+ point game could inflate the scoring impression, but I think the opponent adjusted yards/play (-0.06 vs FBS) does illustrate the way the offense struggled. Despite the context of OT being different and skewing the analysis a bit, points for/against is still the single most important stat.

Here’s an article I wrote looking at how the offense performed statistically in 2018 and how much of that production is returning for 2019. If Emery can step in and be a difference maker, watch out. That early game against Texas is going to be awesome.

LINK

I’ll be writing up something similar for the defense and having looked at Bama, Clemson and Georgia already. None of them have any Grant Delpits in the secondary. That dude is on another level.