igoringa

your real numbers are still not talking about comparable periods. I understand you don't understand long-term construction projects that's fine.

You are effectively trying to compare the capex of building an apartment with first years rent to make some sort of argument. It's a long-term construction project. We would all love cap rates of 100%, but we have to live in the real world.

So my last comment on this cluster of a earnings release and call, and it may seem like I am being harsh and it is because I am. They trumpet themselves as best in breed management and get a premium for it - then they do this. The presentation decisions they made and lack of transparency was just terrible. Particularly the decision to stop projecting ARR - let me walk through this.

Q3 revenue - $958 million, of which $300 million is one time - so running revenue $658 million. So truly compared to consensus (which did not assume any one time revenue) this is a big miss due to delays they hid and suggested did not exist.

Q4 ARR they downgrade to $3-$3.4 billion. Remember at Q2 26 they started ARR for THAT quarter was $3 billion. So really not good.

OK fine - it is what it is - they have 2027 to paint the real demand and growth picture. And what do they decide to do:

1) Disclose CAPEX of $40-45 Billion
2) Say they will no longer guide to ARR
3) Say total revenue will be $12-13 billion.

What the hell is the market supposed to think of that? First ARR is critical to substantiate why we are spending $45 billion. An inexperienced investor will see a $3 billion ARR coming in and then see only $9 to $10 billion in incremental revenue on $45 billion in CAPEX. That is what ARR helps to explain (ie that such a comparison is not apples to oranges). But that is gone now - the market is on their own.

And lets unpack $12-13 billion in revenue. $3 billion ARR coming in and promises of over 1 GW of new capacity coming online. New capacity is trending to get low 20's on LT deals and 40-50 on short term. Given they say $4 billion in ARR in Feb (the delayed 12/31 ARR) - this suggests the extra GW will contribute $8 to $9 billion? That must suggest this 1 GW is coming on quite late in the year (as a midpoint convention would suggest dramatically more of that) plus any asset light as there is zero of that in it. ARR projection would make that clear - it would say sure revenue will be $12 to $13 billion but our exit velocity will be closer to $30 billion. But no guidance.

Margins drop in Q3. Company projects flat margin in Q4 and no guidance in 27. Analyst asks question on it and management fumbles and says one off revenue causes static so ignore Q3 (which means Q3 was actually really worse if it was not for the one off revenue) and fumbles going forward instead of blasting that the 40% margin is because NBIS does not own their capacity, but 75% of the new capacity they will and that will skyrocker margins. She mumbled something of the sort at the end but the horse was out of the barn.

Inexcusable presentation. Inexcusable action by Data One misleading everyone on Vineland in such a public fashion. Really a bad day.

Bullish AF though because I see through the noise. Iren's historically horrific earning calls (last one was good) have trained me for this crap - just never expected it from the A team.

Cannot blame Jenson for NBIS lowering 2026 guidance for revenue.

I said in the summer there was no way in hell Vineland was on schedule - no way. I assume that is what the issue is given now that will be arriving late.

Really pisses me off to be honest - this could have been dealt with professionally in the summer when it came out - instead management played word games, ignored the obvious with Vineland, and said MSFT was being met. We could all see differently and here we sit.

The 2027 guide of $12-13 Million in revenue is much lower than I expected and I hope he is sandbagging (particularly when you add this on top of lowering 2026 revenue guidance).

$40 to $45 billion in capex, 75% covered in prepaids (which is great), the question will be where will the $10 billion come from in terms of dilution.

Sticking with my 1900 shares for the long term as I do think this will be a homerun, but man disappointed in how this was managed and presented.

Edit: There are some positives. The volume of prepayments and GPU payback down to 19 months is mega bullish long term.

CRWV gave a pretty solid earnings call - again emphasizing the incredible economics. Same game we have heard $40M mw short term, $20-25M mw over 4/5 years. Switching to prepaid model (like NBIS and IREN).

Emphasized the operating leverage they are gaining - they have 130K GPUS coming off contract in 2027 that are completely free and clear and they estimate $4 billion in ARR from those alone with neglible cost, and 170K in 28 increasing incremental ARR to $10 billion - all chips that are free and clear of debt. I am sure Blurry foresaw that lol

interesting tidbit in iren - post quarter deal - 5 yr $22 million per MW with 90%! GPU Capex prepaid.

customers are not only willing to pay well over 20 M per MW for long-term deals - They're willing to effectively buy the chips up front.

Iren also reported 40m per MW short term which is touching the low end of the NBIS range.

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IREN

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Are you worried they are going to reneg on batch 0?

Out of the 5GW plus pipeline:

.6 GW is exposed to batch 0 study (SW II) - that could get delayed although was a 28 event anyways

1.4 GW is SW1 that is already through the process and not subject to any moratorium I have seen proposed etc

750MW - Childress - in operation active development and through the process

200 MW in Canada and expanding

1.6 GW in Oklahoma

800 MW in Spain

400MW in Australia

What risk that you are citing (and the market) am I missing? I acknowledge SWII could drag or be exposed but that is like 15% if that

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Up so far tonight. I was afraid the initial reaction to the financing news would be negative because of the skittish market...

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Elon has taken care of this - comments on neo clouds that are being applied to everything.

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What’s the thinking with this stock after last week… is it time to exit?

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Individual choice for individual people.

I always look and ask if I still believe in the thesis. In this case, at a macro level - do I still believe there is a massive shortage of compute and will be for the foreseeable future? Yes

At the micro level - I management executing to plan. In this case easily exceeding plan. Incredible expansion, pricing on LT contracts with 2 year cost recovery (last year we were looking more like 4-5) and short term at almost name your price. Balance sheet a fortress, Palantir partnership etc....

Can we have more pain? Sure. Long term investment - I do not see a negative (or atleast the enhancement of a negative over the past few weeks consistent with the pull back).

Sort of a fake news headline it seems. OpenAI previously when talking revenue including their large partnership deals as part of it (so $70 billion revenue included some revenue share). The $50 billion is the net them (excluding the revenue share). The delta, from atleast what CNBC is reporting, is not actually the result of decrease demand but an apples to oranges comparieon with an irrational market

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My biggest regret is that I didn’t sell 30% at 6 dollars to cover the cost and then come get more today at a discount.

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That is understandable and is likely the only thing I did right - I did unload enough above $6 to basically have no basis - except I bought a few thousand today