igoringa
| Favorite team: | LSU  |
| Location: | South Mississippi |
| Biography: | |
| Interests: | |
| Occupation: | |
| Number of Posts: | 12508 |
| Registered on: | 6/29/2007 |
| Online Status: | Not Online |
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My vote is in
1
Yeah BDO is a pretty big vote of confidence - they have floors in client acceptance so this is suggestive it is real and timely. I will start adding a few (although I swore I was stopping this after current holds to index into retirement lol)
we.... are..... short..... compute...... inevitable price increases
re: Nebius - NBIS - AI Infrastructure Company
Posted by igoringa on 9/16/26 at 7:21 am to bayoubengals88
that..... was...... fast
quote:
With that said they hired Grant Thornton as their new auditor so that tells me that one of those aforementioned law firms is involved in the circular.
The Grant Thornton hire is actually a pretty decent sign to me. Companies like this have dozens of Firms to choose from that are Nasdaq accepted to be auditors so sometimes the decision is more that of the lowest priced commodity.
This is not that - GT is not the cheapest Firm on the block - that is a concious choice. A board member of HGRAF is a former audit partner as a smaller firm so they are well aware of the availability of other options but still went for a well known top 8 Firm. I really like the move.
re: Nebius - NBIS - AI Infrastructure Company
Posted by igoringa on 9/11/26 at 8:19 pm to bayoubengals88
quote:
Honestly, unexpected. That's about 50bn per year. I wonder how much can be funded by pre payments?
i'm really not surprised by that - Jensen was explicitly clear that one gw factory is a $50 billion endeavor now - I would almost assume smaller sizes are probably maybe even more per mw or at minimum the same.
That being said - probably 65 or 70% of that is the Nvidia chips and at today's negotiations they're getting over 50 or 60% of that in prepayment - and it will only go up. And factor in GPU pay off in two years.- never mind all the other software and acid light, etc., angles - we might get some dilation in the next couple years, but it'll be worth it in spades
re: Spec Play - HGRAF
Posted by igoringa on 9/4/26 at 2:12 pm to NaturalBeam
Somebody moved the market this afternoon getting out. Slightly elevated volume in any direction and this thing moves. Holding long and strong
quote:
healthy skepticism
Healthy is the operative word. Always want to hear the bear thesis but the discourse the last few days is surely not that - there must be better arguments lol
re: Nebius - NBIS - AI Infrastructure Company
Posted by igoringa on 9/3/26 at 12:21 pm to bayoubengals88
and the kicker with the current economics is the upward trajectory. The deals today in a lot of cases are double economically the deals just last year. There is no sign that is going to flatline or degress
quote:
For example, let’s say Uber’s engineers like using Anthropic’s AI tools for $100. And at $100, it helps Uber’s bottomline. But, it costs Anthropic $400 to power these tools. Something has to give. Either the customer has to pay more, or Anthropic’s needs to get far more efficient. There’s no market equilibrium. We are almost 4 years since ChatGPT launched, none of this has happened. It won’t happen either. That’s why none of these things that you are imagining are going to scale, and in NBIS you are holding shares in the biggest risk of the entire chain, the data center builder.
Anthropic literally posted a profitable quarter this month. If profitability in less than 5 years for a company and an industry that did not exist 5 years ago is your proof positive that 'it will never happen', do not look at the history of the likes of Amazon.
It is amazing we have these hundreds of billions of wasted dollars being spent right now yet corporate earnings are running at borderline record levels.
re: OUST - Ouster LiDAR for Physical AI
Posted by igoringa on 9/2/26 at 10:52 am to Bayou_Tiger_225
Well this board has taken a turn over the last few days.
Always welcome bear thesis' and try to provide my fair share, but the tone and approach of this little stretch is disappointing.
Always welcome bear thesis' and try to provide my fair share, but the tone and approach of this little stretch is disappointing.
re: Nebius - NBIS - AI Infrastructure Company
Posted by igoringa on 8/31/26 at 9:48 pm to bayoubengals88
quote:
Anthropic chose Lambda Labs for a 35bn dollar deal. Makes me optimistic for the possibility of a Google/NBIS deal to increase our backlog to roughly 100bn.
unless hyper scaler pricing has increased to over 20 per MW (compared to the 12 they got for vineland) - I would be surprised if they did another super large hyper scaler deal. Their differentiator is software so that's have more value to non-hyper scale. I should get them a premium.
re: Spec Play - HGRAF
Posted by igoringa on 8/28/26 at 4:05 pm to Dock Holiday
quote:
One note I found in the filing, their tax auditor "resigned voluntarily due to the move to the US", that's now on record. They picked up another auditor immediately, Grant Thorton, a well known one.
That is a very good sign that their auditor has been switched. MNP (old one) is pretty much exclusive Cdn microcap.
Grant is now 5th biggest in world - they just acquired CBIZ to expand more into the types of issuers like HGAF.
Definitely big sign prepping for IPO - GT will likely reaudit earlier years with financials done under US GAAP (or a reconciliation but with redomicile I suspect full reaudit)
re: IREN and GRRR - More AI Infrastructure Companies
Posted by igoringa on 8/28/26 at 3:51 pm to bayoubengals88
LOL Completely agree on the call and agree with perception in the short term. I am not as worried long term. Results is what I worry about long term and $15 billion ARR in 2027
re: IREN and GRRR - More AI Infrastructure Companies
Posted by igoringa on 8/27/26 at 9:42 pm to bayoubengals88
quote:
Looking forward to reading igoringa's comments.
Just catching up now as was traveling.
Starting with least important first but the mechanics of the release I thought had hit a low last Q, but this one was worse. They need to stop the video approach and just do the slides - so many awkard technical pauses etc.... it distracts from what is important.
On to what is important - if you are a long term investor in Iren, you should be satisfied. $20 Million a MW on latest deals with 2 year payback on GPU - I mean that is a dream. Current negotiations suggest next wave is $25 million an MW.
The market does not like $25-30 billion in capex but if you want to have in process multiple GW of development - of course that will be needed. The level of prepayment and debt in hand makes it very manageable without major dilution.
Those wanting 'deal' announcements of investment grade credit will not get it. They have successfully transition to being able to fund non investment grade which drives much higher $ per MW. A lot of execution needed ahead ofcourse.
As a one sentence summary - 2027 ARR is likely to be $15 billion so it is trading at 1X forward ARR - investors can decide if that is reasonable - I know my answer lol
earnings in terms of quarter revenue and eps will be horrific but no one should be investing off that - enough idiots do though.
Key metrics - do they bump up 4 billion year end ARR, any deal or update on sweetwater, and any 27 guidance
Key metrics - do they bump up 4 billion year end ARR, any deal or update on sweetwater, and any 27 guidance
quote:
It's not political for me. For me it is providing their own power and closed cooling system. That's before I start on its impact on just about everything, societal, political, jobs, etc. I feel like this is a can of worms that we have no idea what is going to happen.
I don't disagree on the micro level, but I look at this as a much higher macro level - this is like the Cold War and nuclear proliferation in the 50s. We have to build. We have to stay ahead of the Chinese. period. The Nimby stuff is cute, but it will eventually be a matter of national security hopefully not before it's too late.
China is ahead in robotics, only months behind an inference and we cannot lose the race
quote:
Are you guys all still bullish on AI data center infrastructure?
Is there going to be a pushback and slowdown in these datacenters?
These 2 look appealing though.
Me - absolutely. Keep in mind if there is a pushback or slow down in development - those who currently have capacity will find it that much more valuable. Plus the likes of NBIS, IREN are international in focus too and the pushback is not as strong.
re: Spec Play - HGRAF
Posted by igoringa on 8/21/26 at 9:25 am to tiggerthetooth
I keep getting invalid or error message. Oh well, this board is enough for me
re: IREN and GRRR - More AI Infrastructure Companies
Posted by igoringa on 8/20/26 at 2:42 pm to helllo_heisman002
I remain heavy in on Iren - still absolutely loved the long-term potential.
The fact that Sweetwater will be the flagship Vera Rubin DSX project for Nvidia (per Nvidia themselves) is enough for me to hold strong
The fact that Sweetwater will be the flagship Vera Rubin DSX project for Nvidia (per Nvidia themselves) is enough for me to hold strong
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