igoringa
| Favorite team: | LSU  |
| Location: | South Mississippi |
| Biography: | |
| Interests: | |
| Occupation: | |
| Number of Posts: | 12479 |
| Registered on: | 6/29/2007 |
| Online Status: | Not Online |
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re: Everybody strapped in?
Posted by igoringa on 8/14/26 at 4:57 pm to lsuconnman
quote:
once the final 35 billion XRP are printed there will never be any more. Ripple makes the 1990s baseball card manufacturers blush.
I have to give ripple credit here though - they have managed to line the idiots up to be able to dump 300 million coins a month consistently out of escrow and literally have free funding of 300,000,000 to 900,000,000 a month over the last couple years - I mean what a fricking business. All they have to do is keep dropping bullshite statistics and pay influencers and they get all this billions and billions of free capital - truly amazing
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quote:
Shades of Enron
He obviously has no idea what happenned at Enron if he is correlating a public announcement of $500 billion of 3rd party money with Enron's Jedi and the like.
As i said in the other thread, Burry has called 27 of the last 2 bubbles ... more crying wolf does not move the needle.
At the end of the day, regardless of the LLM provider (or open source) we are massively short compute and the game has just begun. The real usage rate of GPUs (well beyond 5 years nevermind beow it) and ST auction rates of MWs clearly demonstrate it with physical dollars being spent.
If you believe we are going to truncate compute growth and just stop and watch China run away - all the power to you - but I do not believe that will happen. I do not think the massive earnings growth across the market is independent of AI - it is not a coincidence.
Not a single factor to me suggests bubble in the classic sense of it. Yes there will be misallocated capital but there is currently more real demand then supply - that is not the sign of a bubble.
The circular financing argument is way stretched also - if Nvidia directly lent credit to a customer like hundreds of companies do, would we say circular financing? But somehow not providing the financing, getting 500 billion of third party capital injected is. I do not understand it.
Not in it and only a little bit familiar.
My challenge with stable coin issuers is the majority of their revenue tends to come from interest on the reserves behind the stablecoin which is effectively TBills. I am not investing in stocks for tbill returns.
It is really on the software and process side that they will have to dominate and I do not have enough vision into that.
My challenge with stable coin issuers is the majority of their revenue tends to come from interest on the reserves behind the stablecoin which is effectively TBills. I am not investing in stocks for tbill returns.
It is really on the software and process side that they will have to dominate and I do not have enough vision into that.
re: Nebius - NBIS - AI Infrastructure Company
Posted by igoringa on 8/12/26 at 9:44 pm to SquatchDawg
yeah, don't get me wrong. There will always be your hurdles but the negative EPS dissipates pretty quickly if we buy the 9 billion AR by the end of the year plan compared to three right now that's a triple on the top line. Well, not even talking about 27.
And in regards to revenue outpacing capex and overhead - at 20-25 per MW and the incredible lifespan we're seen with current chips is the e game changer in that regard.
The shorts argue aggressively chip should be depreciated over three years as that's so useful life - reality is showing a very very different picture which massively changes the economics in ROI. The payback time gets ridiculously short of these metrics.
Never mind, the brilliant Nvidia play to backstop debt effectively guaranteeing that extended useful life to keep the flywheel running. The only true fly in the ointment would be a decrease or taper in demand - and we truly aren't even through the first end of that.
The last 72 hours could not be more bullish. shite happens so maybe something will jump up and bite us but man the thesis has been triple downes in my mind
And in regards to revenue outpacing capex and overhead - at 20-25 per MW and the incredible lifespan we're seen with current chips is the e game changer in that regard.
The shorts argue aggressively chip should be depreciated over three years as that's so useful life - reality is showing a very very different picture which massively changes the economics in ROI. The payback time gets ridiculously short of these metrics.
Never mind, the brilliant Nvidia play to backstop debt effectively guaranteeing that extended useful life to keep the flywheel running. The only true fly in the ointment would be a decrease or taper in demand - and we truly aren't even through the first end of that.
The last 72 hours could not be more bullish. shite happens so maybe something will jump up and bite us but man the thesis has been triple downes in my mind
re: Nebius - NBIS - AI Infrastructure Company
Posted by igoringa on 8/12/26 at 8:58 pm to bayoubengals88
and keep in mind all of these prices are Blackwell or older pretty much - wait to the Vera Rubins rolls out.
re: Nebius - NBIS - AI Infrastructure Company
Posted by igoringa on 8/12/26 at 8:10 pm to bayoubengals88
quote:
This is the definiton of a short squeeze. Plus, what bear case is left? Coreweave is stretching GPUs out to nine years now. Nebius is selling short term contracts at auctions for 3-4x pricing. I think we'll be making new all time highs soon. igoringa: Please correct me where I'm wrong. I haven't had any time to look into much today.
I have been traveling today too, so I haven't had a huge amount of time to look into this - but yes, I think you hit the nail on the head. Those two facts decimate, any realistic bear case. I am the first to try to be glass half empty out of conservatism. Sure there may be delays here and delays there and public pressure on the industry, but that's gonna only make available capacity that much more scarce.
Coreweave's nine year A100 scenario is so significant - I mean, it cannot be overstated. And NBIS 20 mill average in conjunction with $40-$50 million short-term auction corroborating spacex's known transactions - there is no reasonable argument left.
Burry and the shorts will likely try to keep pointing to circular financing, but at the end of the day there is an end customer paying these prices and that customer is not getting funded by Nvidia. To the extent there is a circular nature, it is in the ultimate production of the final deliverable and not financing of the end customer - that is a pretty big fricking difference as it validates the end demand is true.
Nebius and Coreweave did the entire industry, a solid, and we are reaping the reward
re: Nebius - NBIS - AI Infrastructure Company
Posted by igoringa on 8/12/26 at 7:54 am to Mockingbird2008
once the analyst re-price with these new megawatt numbers, which will be probably a day or two the sky is the limit -
re: Nebius - NBIS - AI Infrastructure Company
Posted by igoringa on 8/12/26 at 7:09 am to Sabans straw hat
"we see price opportunities in the 40-50 million per megawatt range"
Sweet merciful god
Sweet merciful god
no way am I planning to sell but my initial purchases are officially long term now - quite the year
re: Nebius - NBIS - AI Infrastructure Company
Posted by igoringa on 8/7/26 at 5:35 pm to bayoubengals88
quote:
I bought two $220 Septembers Blow the top off kind of quarter is my guess.
you are braver than I am - I've added some calls over this downturn but out to January 27.
This earnings release is going to be incredibly dynamic. Vineland is going to be a short-term drag the more I look at it. It's impossible for them to meet their current timeline. I hope I'm wrong but it's impossible.
But they have so much else going on and so much potential news they could drop about literally 12 countries if they wanted to never mind just standard increases never mind the independence Missouri rumors.
I think they'll be massive movement in the stock. I just don't know what direction I'm confident mid to long-term multiples above where it is but next week I'm nervous.
I wouldnt mess with Burry, I mean he has called 27 out of the last 2 great short opportunities.
quote:
Is everyone here still bullish?
absolutely
re: OUST - Ouster LiDAR for Physical AI
Posted by igoringa on 8/6/26 at 3:37 pm to bayoubengals88
it's really too bad because every other metric blew the lights out
re: OUST - Ouster LiDAR for Physical AI
Posted by igoringa on 8/6/26 at 3:22 pm to bayoubengals88
yeah, you'll lead off the press release signing 55 million in revenue in saying it's the 17th quarter of successive growth and then you give arrange for the next queue with the bottom end below 55 million effectively introducing the possibility of breaking the very streak you're bragging about - I mean if that's what they truly believe fine but that's kind of tough messaging
I think there will be an opportunity to catch it under 42. That guidance is gonna turn people off short term.
I agree I like it for the long-term investment aspect, but short-term and options are gonna feel that for a little bit
I agree I like it for the long-term investment aspect, but short-term and options are gonna feel that for a little bit
re: Choosing a wealth manager
Posted by igoringa on 8/4/26 at 11:56 am to DarthRebel
quote:
Yes - Go ask Claude, ChatGPT, Grok. - I am being serious. Lay out in detail your entire wealth portfolio in detail and that you are interviewing wealth managers. Ask AI what to look out for and questions to ask when rating these people.
AI is going to do a better job giving you a buttoned up checklist to follow through.
So for someone who has a fair bit invested in the AI trade, I am defunct in some functionality. With Claude as an example, I am fine asking it various questions and getting answers - but I see people making calculators and breathing documents from this (ie effectively tools and programs). How do I take that step in usage - is there a specific app on top or DYI videos?
TIA
re: Which crash will be bigger? The .com Crash or the AI Crash?
Posted by igoringa on 7/30/26 at 1:18 am to bayoubengals88
there is some comedy in this thread - show me the hundreds of equivalent companies to E toys and ask jeeves.
The difference between a world calm, and Nvidia couldn't be more stark if you actually looked at the numbers.
It is so apples to oranges - It's rather lazy argument.
The difference between a world calm, and Nvidia couldn't be more stark if you actually looked at the numbers.
It is so apples to oranges - It's rather lazy argument.
so I was out of the loop for Friday was there any news in the Neo cloud space since rhey all took the same dump?
quote:
Can someone remind me why they decided to domicile in Canada to start with?
so I'll answer this in a couple parts. Starting from the hydrograph side, the good doctor once he made his discovery started getting interest from various parties. In an interview, he noted that most of them though came from Asia and he didn't want control to fall to them. But then this business team from Vancouver came down and presented him a plan and vision to use the product.. he agreed to go with them and keep it in North America. It was not a conscious decision to go to Canada per se for any benefit - that is simply where the business team was from.
Now part two is why is there such a random business team in Vancouver? Well, Vancouver has a disproportionate number of shell and microcap Promoter types. It is the legacy from the days of the Vancouver stock exchange, which was a highly speculative junior mining exchange in effect. It drew a lot a very interesting characters and built an entire industry of promotion and small company transactions. That is where I started my career and honestly I have a general rule that avoid companies with Vancouver connections like that because the history is so poor. In this case and a rare few others, I really enhance the due diligence to make sure I was comfortable with the Vancouver connections. In the case of hydrograph, the fact, the technology was based out of Kansas and legitimate and the old management who was part of a consortium known for pump and dump bullshite was pretty much on the way out.
So that is why I got comfortable and that is the random reason they're domicile in Canada. Of course nobody would foresee the domicile issue. We are seeing today..
note: apologize for typos or broken language. I'm using a speech feature into my phone since tiger droppings Internet access is blocked in Hong Kong, which is where I am right now. .
quote:
She gives an empathic “yes!” that govt grant money is on the way.
and I hope it is. But what exactly was the point of this press release?
again, I completely hope it's awkward wording for good news.
As for the emphatic yes - it is now been over a year where there have been explicit deadlines and timing by management communicated emphatically, and that has not showed high correlation to what is actually occurred. Don't get me wrong. I haven't sold a share. I'm still in as much as possible, but I have to be balanced about it. I'm actually violating some of my base investing rules with this one. Shortly after I brought this one to the board, you can see messages where I effectively say I'm gonna give it to October for the revenue contracts up list, etc. which was after the promised dates and yes' from the CEO. That was October 2025.
So a yes, from the CEO without a show me does not have the sticking power for me that it did the first time.
Edit: do not get me wrong. I'm still bullish. I'm still holding and still look at this as my big binary bet. but today I saw a press release where the company is saying we think the government should do A, B and C - where she has already publicly stated the government is going to do that.... that they already are moving towards these things. It just seems bizarre to me.
quote:
Definitely a positive
I wish I agreed. This does not read well to me.
We have been told that the US government has interest in a GEIC an investment and all these things.
This is nothing but a press release of the company begging for the US to have an interest in this - it actually disappoints me ....
I may be reading into it too much - but it comes across as desperate and groveling.
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