New City Champ

1. Injuries. Not saying Pels were heading for the finals or anything, but they were a 50-win team last season and, with average health, probably would have been again and in the top 6. It's easy to forget that.

1a. Zion. Injuries here as well, but additionally how much of that has been due to his own failures on conditioning and rehab? Hard to know for sure, but hamstrings, meniscus tears, foot fractures can all be impacted by being too heavy or not training properly for the rigors of the NBA. With Zion I've always thought it's not just a matter of being fat or out of shape: he's just too heavy to play the way he does and last a full season + the playoffs. He looked very good the second half of this season so maybe he's turned a corner on this issue, but his injury history is a. major, major factor in Pels future if he stays.

2. Willie/Griff. A couple of months ago I heard AD on his national radio show talking about how teams always come to reflect the personality of their head coach and/or GM to a large extent. He wasn't talking about the Pels but it was hard to miss the implication given some of his past comments about how the team plays and the club's failure to address these issues, such as end of game melt downs. I hope among Dumars first orders of business is to get all the crap off the walls about "joy" and "compassion. He should just stick a post-it note on the gym wall that says "win."

3. Shooting. Since Zion's early days it's been clear the Pels should surround him with shooters and more shooters. He has the gravitational pull of a black hole. Instead the Pels dealt assets for traditional big men, held on to BI long after it was clear he wasn't going to change his mid-range game and continued to play offensively challenged vets instead of developing its young draft picks. If Willie stays, Dumars really has to take him to the wood shed on this stuff.

For me stuff like ownership, the arena, the luxury tax (for now) are way, way down the list. If you win, no one cares about the arena. Boston Garden was a notorious dump for years in the Cs golden years. MSG isn't much better. Winning cures all that. I think a lot of criticism of the Pels is overstated. People mocked the Knicks and Lakers and Suns and many other front offices until they didn't. Not saying there aren't legit issues, but it's sometimes just lazy and cynical, like a lot of bros on a sub-reddit crapping on the widow owner.

Small sample size and correlation between teams having bad years. The injury bug bit the Pels hard. Where did they rank last year when they won 50?

Maybe because they barely use the name anymore. And the Mardi Gras colors are completely gone. At least we could get those back...

Interesting and, perhaps, an accurate evaluation of Zion's worth in the market even with his demonstration of renewed dedication this year.

Most here, I think, would only want to trade Z for another star player. While I see both Claxon and Johnson as good players, neither are stars that could be the first or second best guy on a championship team. They are above average role players. Claxon's 10.3 pts/ 7.4 rebs is not far off from Missi's 9.1 pts/8.2 rebs. You could credibly argue that Missi, at 20 and on a cheap deal, is the better value. And Cam Johnson, unlike Trey Murphy, has yet to average 20 pts/game in the NBA.

So two role players and a pick, which I was placing at 6th or higher, isn't an exorbitant price for a guy who can be the best player on a championship team--if you are willing to roll the dice on his injury issues and think he's turned the corner maturity wise. Maybe that requires more proof in the trade market. But if he does prove it, the price to get Z goes up substantially. This could well be a buy low opportunity for an aggressive GM.

I would too. Realistically, this deal would have a much better chance if Pels land the 2nd overall pick so that Philly gets Dylan Harper, Cam Johnson and two additional first rounders for Maxey and even then I think they only do it if Maxey demands a trade.

On the Nets side, they'd have to view Z as a cornerstone guy, a still young player with top-10 super star potential in a new environment. All of which could be true if Zion's commitment this year to being in condition wasn't a one-off mirage. Would help if Bill Duffy can work same kind of magic for Z that he did for Luka.

For Pels, landing a guy like Maxey while staying in the top 10 of this year's draft is pretty close to the best case scenario on a Zion exit. It could be, in my scenario, that the Brooklyn pick would have to be routed to Philly as well to pry Maxey loose and trump other offers, so that the 76ers wound up with our pick, their own pick and Brooklyn's pick, three top 10 selections in a great draft, to turbo charge their rebuild around Embiid. That's a lot of rooks, but this is the year to have them. They could also re-route one or two of those top-10 selections in a deal for another veteran star or to unload that terrible Paul George contract.

If Pels could pair Maxey with Herb that's a pretty strong, balanced, back court duo to go with Trey and a top-10 rookie at the other forward spot like Queen or Murray-Boyles and the young centers. I could live with that and working with CJ and DeJounte as other value pieces to garner additional assets.

Another simpler scenario, of course, is for Pels to keep the pick and just roll with a Harper or Ace Bailey or Edgecombe themselves and see what else they could pick up in a general auction of Zion's contract and other assets.

And the same pundits were roasting the Hawks when the trade happened. Look it up.

The trade looks horrible because Herb and Dejounte both had season ending injuries while Dyson took a step forward. Of course Dyson was a real prospect. That's the only reason ATL would make that trade after the ransom they gave up to get Murray from San Antonio.

The only fair criticism I may make is that the Hawks were initially hot for Herb. I argued at the time that having Dyson on the roster allowed you to consider trading Herb, but only if the deal included Okongwu, solving the Pels problem at center. It looked like Atlanta wanted Herb so much to pair with Trey that they might do a deal taking Brandon & Herb for Murray & Okongwu. I would have made that deal.

Yeah, Sabonis only works if it's a trade FOR Zion. I wouldn't pair them.

A good reset, or soft rest, from our current position would involve some lottery luck + other teams being incentivized to trade a star player on their roster (like that player requesting the trade).

So...just a long offseason hypothetical where Pels get some breaks go their way:

-Tyrese Maxey quietly requests a trade from the 76ers;

-Pels wind up with the #2 overall pick;

-Pels package #2 pick, Pacers' 2026 first rounder and CJ McCollum for Maxey. 76ers come way with Dylan Harper, CJ and a first rounder.

-Sabonis asks for a trade from the Kings;

-Pels agree to trade Zion for Sabonis + their 2025 first round pick which ends up in the 12-14 range;

-Pels end up with Sabonis and, say, Collin Murray Boyles at pick 14;

-Pels offseason reset is Zion, McCollum, Dylan Harper & Pacers 2026 pick go out; Sabonis, Maxey & Murray-Boyles come in.

-Pels start Maxey/Herb/Trey/Olenyk/Sabonis and Jose/Hawk/Boston/Murray Boyles/Missi as second unit with a deep bench of Karlo/Reeves/Payton/Brooks/JRE. Dejounte is a mid-season add back and probably you would tinker with roster at that point. You could obviously tinker with the line ups.

This is a pretty optimistic scenario but not outrageous. I'm sure a lot of you would rather the Pels have Harper + Zion rather than Sabonis, Maxey and a mid-first, but I think I'm actually being generous to Pels. They might have to include more assets if this hypo was IRL...

With some lottery luck we could end up with a high pick that could be legit #2 to Zion or do a soft reset by trading Zion. So, just as an example:

High Pick + Trade:

Sabonis/Flagg/Murphy/Herb/CJ-(Murray)

or

Missi/Flagg/Murphy/Herb/Maxey

High Pick No Trade:

Missi/Zion/Trey/Herb/Harper

The real "X" factor is whether Zion will ask out. After six years, wouldn't come as complete shock if he did...

I'd give Hawk another year. As AD says, not everybody develops at the same rate.

He's so light that he's going to get bullied on both offense and defense. He is, however, a better athlete than I thought in terms of his vertical, so he can get blocks, boards and has a high release point on his jumper.

The problem is, as pointed out, he just hasn't done the shooting. And that's what he's here for. He's never going to be a lead guard. His handle isn't anywhere near a guy like Curry. He's got to be an elite mover off the ball and a 40%+/- shooter from behind the arc to stick in the league. Otherwise his cons well outweigh his pros as a player.

So far he isn't close to that. But I'd give him another year and hopefully a new coach to see if he can take that step.

It depends on where we end up in the lottery and what Z's value is in the market.

If, for example, we land Cooper Flagg and could trade Zion for another top-5 pick (in addition to other assets), I think you have to look at it.

If we don't land the top spot and/or the offers for Z are thin, then you play out the hand.

I love what I've seen from Zion since he got back this year, but it also may represent our last sell high opportunity on him and I'm still not sure I believe he can play a full season + 3-4 tough rounds in the post season without getting hurt. If he can't then we are just spinning our wheels with him...