ThePeoplesDawg

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The season is young, but the annual tradition of calling for head coaching changes has already begun. I see lots of commenters speculating about saviors for their programs, and no name comes up more than Les Miles. Even though most references to The Mad Hatter seem a bit tongue in cheek, I wondered if I could quantify Miles’ potential impact on a program. Really, is Les more?

TL;DR: I’m not really sure. The data is a bit unclear, and that in itself should make fan bases hesitate. It appears Les would improve your recruiting, but that the talent might not translate into wins.

Gif of analysis (you can pause it in the bottom left corner if it's too fast to read): https://i.imgur.com/NyxQ9Hb.gifv

Tableau dashboard of analysis (so you can explore the data at your own pace): https://public.tableau.com/profile/thepeoplesbard#!/vizhome/LesIsMore/IsLesMore?publish=yes

Caveat::
This analysis presumes that head coaches operate in a vacuum, which is of course absurd. Strength of schedule, bad referees, QB hangnails, etc., etc. all influence any coach’s overall success. But I’m comfortable sharing my results because I’m a shitposter and also because it’s a healthy thought exercise to analyze the data you do have access to. Anyway, none of these factors outside of a coach's control seem to stop anyone else here from judging them.

Methodology:
In my mind, coaches are best judged by their wins and their recruitment. So I counted Miles' wins and found his recruitment ranking (247 Sports) for every year he was a head coach. To avoid analyzing him in a vacuum, I also considered the success of the coaches that followed and preceeded him.

Analysis:
--Over Miles' 15 seasons as a head coach, he averaged 9.3 wins a season and the 13th best recruiting class. That seems good!
--Looking at trend lines, Miles appears to have improved as a winner and a recruiter over those 15 years. That also seems good!
--However, drawing separate lines for each coaching stint shows a winning down trend at LSU. Hmmm. His inability to cash in on the talent he recruited--although undeniably great--is often cited as the major factor for his departure.
--Comparing Miles to other coaches' at these programs, the case for him becomes less compelling, although that is partly driven by the high quality of the coach Miles followed and preceeded. At Oklahoma State, it appears Mike Gundy has on average been a lesser recruiter than Miles, and yet he has averaged more wins. Miles and Saban's tenures at LSU appear to be a bit of a wash, and it's too soon to say on Orgeron.

Results:
"Is Les more?" is a relative question. More than what? Each fan base would need to independently assess if Miles is more than what they have now. But I think my work shows Miles isn't an obvious slam dunk. On the face of it, he seems to recruit with the best of them...but that doesn't mean he'll win.

This analysis was conducted under the auspices of https://twitter.com/ESPMisery/status/1039677902361645056, which is committed to telling the stories of losers.

Originally posted on reddit here: https://www.reddit.com/r/CFB/comments/9f32cm/ive_noticed_disgruntled_fan_bases_proclaiming_les/

Hey, I made that gif! You posted it here quickly. Glad you liked.