Ebridg3
| Favorite team: | LSU |
| Location: | Baton Rouge, La |
| Biography: | |
| Interests: | |
| Occupation: | |
| Number of Posts: | 3159 |
| Registered on: | 9/25/2016 |
| Online Status: | Not Online |
Recent Posts
Message
re: LSU is -235 to go over 7.5 games
Posted by Ebridg3 on 8/9/26 at 8:06 am to The Pirate King
quote:
Clemson
@ Ole Miss
A&M
@Auburn
Bama
Texas
@Tenn
I agree with your concern given that Clemson isn't a guarantee, but if you look up and Clemson is a double digit game in the third quarter... I'd consider the bet, because when that game finalizes, Vegas isn't going to give you -235 odds that LSU wins 2 of the remaining 6 games that you have listed.
The math is based on preseason models. My models show the same thing, but these same models show every team in CFB having at least 3 losses this year.
In other words, its a conservative model until the first 4 games of the season are played, of course Vegas will update their odds as soon as Week 1 is complete.
I've attached my current season outlook (preseason is only ever so accurate) and then, the Clemson game, for instance is the roster matchup alone... which, statistically, we show only a 60% chance of winning that game, but are double digit favorites.
So.. my point is, im not arguing the math, but I am saying that there's a huge difference in Vegas odds and what likely outcomes actually are if you understand what you're betting on.
For example, there's a difference between taking a +850 straight bet vs a +850 carefully calculated parlay when you look at historical outcomes.
[url=LINK ]
[/url]
[url=LINK ]
[/url]
and I did bet on it.
In other words, its a conservative model until the first 4 games of the season are played, of course Vegas will update their odds as soon as Week 1 is complete.
I've attached my current season outlook (preseason is only ever so accurate) and then, the Clemson game, for instance is the roster matchup alone... which, statistically, we show only a 60% chance of winning that game, but are double digit favorites.
So.. my point is, im not arguing the math, but I am saying that there's a huge difference in Vegas odds and what likely outcomes actually are if you understand what you're betting on.
For example, there's a difference between taking a +850 straight bet vs a +850 carefully calculated parlay when you look at historical outcomes.
[url=LINK ]
[/url] [url=LINK ]
[/url] and I did bet on it.
LSU is -235 to go over 7.5 games
Posted by Ebridg3 on 8/9/26 at 7:25 am
If you're patient, and don't mind waiting on your money.. this is as close to free money as you're going to get.
1000$ bet is 400$ and some change in profit.
I mean, nothing is guaranteed, but this is an absurd odd to offer.
1000$ bet is 400$ and some change in profit.
I mean, nothing is guaranteed, but this is an absurd odd to offer.
quote:
This is the one thing that Blake Baker’s LSU Defenses have struggled with the most. Will this be the year our Defense finds a way to stop an athletic QB from running all over us?
Which games was this a problem for the defense BEFORE they got gassed from a 3 and out offense?
You can't ignore this variable.
The first 40 offensive plays for Ole Miss were essentially negative yardage against that defense.
Then lets not forget that the defense lost key starters. That's the real issue again this year. They are extremely good, but they aren't deep in the DB area and they have one servicable mulligan on the line. Any injury beyond that, and its going to be a long season.
re: Hypothetical: Blake Baker leaves to become a head coach after the season.
Posted by Ebridg3 on 8/8/26 at 10:07 am to Srbtiger06
quote:
I think Aranda would suffer the same problems he did in 2019. He really struggled to adjust to our offense scoring so frequently and so quickly. He made adjustments and they were much improved by the end of the season, but I do worry that'd be an issue under Kiffin.
Super teams existed in 2019. Those teams don't exist anymore.
Aranda had even said it then, and really, who stopped teams better? Maybe you forget, Nick Saban himself was given up points back then.
quote:
Where do I sign up?
You would get your relative % of 10%.
So if you donated 100k of 200 mil in total donations, youd get that fraction of a % not of 200 mil, but what im assuming is 10% of nothing after title ix sends that crap to every other sport
quote:
First, you assume that future revenues will stay at their current level. That is not a reasonable assumption. The SEC is expected to increase revenue greatly in the future.
Second, a portion of the additional money will be used to increase future revenue.
Third, the current/future liabilities (buyouts) are not going away by themselves. They will end, but they need to be paid in the interim. Any time an entity takes a loan, they are using future cash flow to pay that loan. Future cash flow will be impacted one way or the other.
Interested to know how you see them increasing revenue.
Games sell out already
Concessions are already ridiculous
Parking has already been ruined
Football is becoming less popular among college age students as a whole.
Make no mistake about it... youre conflating winning with making more money without identifying actual mechanisms that make more money.
You can do three things.
1. Increase volume of sales
2. Increase profit per sale
3. Reduce costs
Newsflash... youre not reducing costs if youre trying to win championships.
Your whole philosophy is based on winning == more money.
Its like you got a room full of entrepreneurs and zero ops guys.
My point is, this is short term thinking, not long term.
And psychologically, its stupid as hell. Its liking giving a bunch of money to a woman that was already seeing you for nothing, just because she liked you. Now, youre a cash cow to her. She will never see you the same again.
quote:
Private equity into LSU probably won't operate like your company being bought and sliced up for profit. Idk though
Private equity is designed to throw money at something and get money back out of it by any means necessary and then usually sell it off before their decisions impact their own wallet.
Think like.. create terrible working conditions, profit, get out of it before the employees quit and the PNL tanks
Dude when you say you ysed chatgpt, if you didnt use 5.6 SOL very high, max pro or ultra thinking... then it just regurgitate a web search because you didnt give it time to do its own computations
re: Ole Miss Files Breach-of-Contract Lawsuits Against Devin Harper & Princewill Umanmielen
Posted by Ebridg3 on 7/29/26 at 7:18 pm to Tiger in the Sticks
quote:
Some time during the playoffs, Golding admittedly tells Chambliss and Lacy to look how Ole Miss fans turned on Lane, and they “wouldn’t piss on them if they were on fire” if they left. There’s an excellent chance they weren’t the only players who were told that. Maybe they implied their postseason playing time would be impacted if they didn’t sign. And maybe there are recordings or witnesses that support that. We still had coaching staff there. I agree that contracts should be upheld, but I have no idea if they were even valid to begin with. Let discovery play out.
Multiple defenses not just duress such as the environment changing immediately after, etc..
Foot in mouth moment for Ole Miss
And for everyone saying they should just pay it..
With what money? They didnt receive any from that contract
re: 40% of all living veterans are on disability benefits
Posted by Ebridg3 on 7/15/26 at 2:55 pm to SparkyWilson
quote:
My point is that it isn't a one-sided sacrifice. At sign up and especially when decided to extend, the assessment was made by the individual that the sacrifice was worth it for one or more reasons. From your previous statement, no, most of us don't understand that level of sacrifice, but we can certainly make the assessment that it must be worth it to the individual choosing it. I mean, why would someone go through it and continue to go through it if it wasn't worth it? It also doesn't make disability claims unassailable.
?You are fundamentally confusing a civilian free-market transaction with the legal framework of the United States military, and in doing so, you are trying to rewrite a contract after the fact.
?First, let's address your assumption about "extensions." Millions of disabled veterans never extended. They signed a single contract, did exactly what was asked of them in places like Iraq, sustained permanent physical damage in the process, and got out. You assume people stayed in because they ran some corporate cost-benefit analysis and decided the "sacrifice was worth it." That is a fundamentally civilian mindset. When guys in combat zones extend, they don’t do it for the "benefits"—they do it because their team is going back into the meat grinder and they refuse to leave them behind.
?But let’s play along with your "contract" logic, because it actually destroys your own argument.
?Yes, they made a choice at sign-up. They signed a legally binding contract with the federal government. The terms of that contract were simple: the government gets absolute, dictatorial control over their bodily autonomy, and in exchange, if the government breaks their bodies while exercising that control, it owes them medical compensation for the permanent loss of their earning potential and physical capability.
?That is what VA disability is. It is not SSDI. It is not welfare based on an inability to work. It is a strict, legal liability mechanism for government-mandated physical destruction.
?When you say disability claims aren't "unassailable," you are using a rhetorical bait-and-switch. Nobody is defending fraudulent claims—fraud is a crime, and the VA has an entire inspector general's office dedicated to prosecuting it. But what you are actually trying to assail is the legitimacy of the debt itself.
?You are trying to use the fact that they "volunteered" as a loophole to scrutinize the compensation they are legally owed. You are essentially saying, "Well, you knew what you were getting into, so why should I, the taxpayer, have to foot the bill?"
?Here is the hard truth: disability compensation existed the day they signed those contracts. It was factored into the very "assessment" you claim they made. Now, years after the fact, as the country gets further away from the reality of the wars they fought, people who never took the risk want to back out of their end of the deal. You chose not to take the risk. That is fine. But you don't get to enjoy the security provided by the people who did, and then complain about paying the taxes required to honor the contract the country made with them.
?The debt is unassailable. If you don't want to pay the toll, don't ask men to stand on the wall.
quote:
Most in that category get a disabled veteran plate. Kind of like how you know if someone does crossfit. You won't have to ask, they will tell you 5 times in your first conversation.
I wish that wasn’t accurate but it is. I’ll add the corollary that the more someone talks about what they did, the less they did.
I think the frustration there is the exploitation of the term "veteran." I share the same sentiment, but why would a veteran not go get either that, 100% DAV, or MH plates for the free registration?
They've tried to separate vets and combat vets into different buckets multiple times and it gets shot down... and as frustrating as that is for combat vets... there wouldn't be enough people to lobby for veterans benefits in that set up.
It gets worse every year that passes since we were in war - war. Everyone wants to feel like they belong, so they shite on people that might have "done more" than them.
Its why you see it here " im a vet but ...." you have a lot of people that served and even deployed during much less dangerous times trying to speak for people who went through the gauntlet... and even VA doctors will start to get it confused... making comments about training or military service being rough to people that were actually consistently exposed to combat.
Its performance, because when you didn't live it, you just take your best guess at how that person would act. Kind of like when a combat vet that lost 8 peers in 4 months tells someone happy memorial day, and the younger vet or person that is influenced by the younger vet goes "but is it really happy?"
No, but as domeone that was at their funerals, they'd want us to say this, and have a beer so stfu.
re: 40% of all living veterans are on disability benefits
Posted by Ebridg3 on 7/15/26 at 1:09 pm to SparkyWilson
.
So I don't even know that you're really discussing disability at this point as much as you are creating a narrative that makes you feel as though that your self-worth is still good even though you didn't serve. This isnt a moral superiority conversation, many people served to avoid jail. They still served. This is about people misconstrueing military disability with welfare.
Its not...
The bottom line is when you're ordered to go do something with the penalty of being jail time, or Worse , historically, not just getting fired from a job if you choose not to do it, and you sustain any injury any injury at all that can even remotely take away from your earning potential then in this country we consider that a legal debt to that person and that's why we pay it.
quote:
That's true; it's certainly not for everybody, but I don't believe it's all solely benevolent service. That's the shroud the military will sometimes wrap themselves in when it's perfectly okay to also say they are in it for the benefits. Whether they sacrifice 4 years to get the GI Bill or 20+ years so they can have a pension, it was a sacrifice with a payoff in mind. That's not watering it down.
So I don't even know that you're really discussing disability at this point as much as you are creating a narrative that makes you feel as though that your self-worth is still good even though you didn't serve. This isnt a moral superiority conversation, many people served to avoid jail. They still served. This is about people misconstrueing military disability with welfare.
Its not...
The bottom line is when you're ordered to go do something with the penalty of being jail time, or Worse , historically, not just getting fired from a job if you choose not to do it, and you sustain any injury any injury at all that can even remotely take away from your earning potential then in this country we consider that a legal debt to that person and that's why we pay it.
re: 40% of all living veterans are on disability benefits
Posted by Ebridg3 on 7/14/26 at 4:59 pm to SparkyWilson
quote:
they stayed in for 20 years, they knew what it was about, and it must have been worth it to them. BAH, military discounts, full medical, more favorable lending terms, GI Bill, pension and possible disability pay must count for something or they wouldn't do it.
Less than 1% of the population serves despite all those benefits and less than 1% of those who do ever have anything to do with combat.
If you chose not to sign the dotted line, thats fine, but there's no need to spin it or water it down.
The vast majority of that compensation is not disability the way you think it is.
Its maybe hundreds of dollars a month... maybe a thousand.
And yes.. anything that medically impacts you while you serve is compensated for.
With that said, people who didnt serve sometimes don't quite understand that even not combat veterans, when they served, their life, 24/7 was dictated and controlled by someone else. Most can't wrap their head around that level of sacrifice or what that truly means.
Its maybe hundreds of dollars a month... maybe a thousand.
And yes.. anything that medically impacts you while you serve is compensated for.
With that said, people who didnt serve sometimes don't quite understand that even not combat veterans, when they served, their life, 24/7 was dictated and controlled by someone else. Most can't wrap their head around that level of sacrifice or what that truly means.
re: This isn’t a great look for the pentagon. They appear to claim Mormons aren’t Christians
Posted by Ebridg3 on 6/7/26 at 1:48 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
Mormons, jeh witness are both, by definition, cults.
re: State witness testifies about the fatal stabbing of Austin Metcalf
Posted by Ebridg3 on 6/5/26 at 11:00 pm to lake chuck fan
quote:
Would it matter??? If he left the tent and got a knife, it would be just as bad if he already had the knife in his backpack.
Why would a high school track athlete need to bring a knife to a track meet?
It's all irrelevant really if they asked him to leave and he said anything along the lines of make me or dared them that's provocation and he's screwed but if the prosecutors need any more material to paint the picture there were 12 girls in that tent and only like four guys so he wasn't being teamed up on and in fact, this was all ego.
It's murder. He's done.
The defense had to basically convince the jury to not look at the objective facts and to try to put themselves in Carmelo's mind and see how he could be paralyzed by fear that's really out the window with all this testimony the environment it wasn't a whole enemy team there right it was mostly chicks the the words that he said everything everything that happened came from like a place of anger and hatred from Carmelo and that's how he acted all up until a cop told him that have Austin dies he screwed and then he realized in that moment that he doesn't have a self-defense claim and that's when he started freaking out and only then did he start freaking out
There were 12 girls underneath that tent that little tiny detail more than anything else is going to bury the defense.
re: Cautionary Tale
Posted by Ebridg3 on 4/25/26 at 4:24 pm to Geauxldilocks
quote:
I’ve seen plenty of projections where preseason Nuss was not only 1st rounder was 1st pick.
How did those predictions just now play out?
How did they play out for Shadeur?
Legal question with regard to Trinidad Chambliss type situations
Posted by Ebridg3 on 3/27/26 at 6:27 pm
Could state courts for away games rule him ineligible to play in their states?
If Ole Miss was a home game this year, could Louisiana courts rule him ineligible?
If Ole Miss was a home game this year, could Louisiana courts rule him ineligible?
re: Why aren’t we treating North Korea like we are Iran?
Posted by Ebridg3 on 3/26/26 at 5:10 pm to Indefatigable
quote:
So this whole thing is because of Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis?
Weird perspective I hadn’t heard that one yet.
How much time have you spent in the middle east... amongst the people there?
Popular
0












