Favorite team:Arizona 
Location:Porte du Lafitte
Biography:
Interests:
Occupation:
Number of Posts:186048
Registered on:9/30/2006
Online Status:Not Online

Recent Posts

Message
quote:

The name sounds black



He worked in Homeland Security under Bush and Trump 1.0

he was the first former Trump admin to endorse Joe Biden

He was a traitor


quote:

Taylor authored a September 2018 The New York Times op-ed titled, "I Am Part of the Resistance Inside the Trump Administration" under the name "Anonymous"
quote:

“And what it has eventually become is both dealing with counterterrorism and responses to exercising First Amendment rights. I do not believe that those purposes need to be dual purposes. I believe that we should have a focus on counterterrorism that is separate from our response to the use of First Amendment"



What this sounds like is a way for the civilian responders to squash speech they don't agree with, and since they aren't in a fully official capacity and are only volunteers, the city can't get in trouble for picking whose right to free speech is OK and whose isn't
quote:

about a brown guy.



Why are you so racist?
Mamdani to announce disbanding of NYPD counterterrorism, protest-response unit: report



quote:

New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani is expected to announce the disbanding of the New York Police Department's counterterrorism and protest-response unit, called the Strategic Response Group, according to a report.

Mamdani pledged during his mayoral campaign last year to dissolve the NYPD's SRG once in office. Three unnamed sources told Politico that Mamdani is expected to unveil a plan to do so as early as this week.

The mayor's plan to terminate the NYPD unit may include replacing it with a new civilian unit that would take the lead on responding to protests, according to one of the anonymous sources.

The plan has not been finalized as of Thursday, but the civilian unit would have support from NYPD officers, who would assemble nearby and could step in to conduct arrests if needed, the source said, adding that the civilian group's main goal would be deescalation.



What could go wrong?
quote:

If they have to hire "expensive" domestic labor, and consumers are willing to pay more so be it. If consumers are not, then go out of business or go back to blue collar profit margins.


Earlier this year a rental house I bought needed to be rewired, but I also ripped out every single piece of sheetrock in it so it was like wiring a new construction. Not the same as having to wire a house full of sheetrock and insulation while crawling through an attic. Homeruns were able to be pulled using a ladder, so it was easy.

I got two quotes from electricians. Both were in the $14K+ range.

I said F that and bought the materials for like $3500 and did it myself

I know not everyone can do that but the point is that you are correct that some of it is optional and if more people say no then prices will have to adjust



BTW, the city told me that since I wasn't living in this house, they were not going to issue me a permit since I am not a licensed electrician. I then asked them why do they have inspectors if they are going to force people to use licensed electricians. The guy at the permit department asked, "What do you mean?"

A licensed electrician knows the code the same as an inspector so why do you guys have to inspect behind a licensed electrician? I said I figured you guys were there to inspect after DIY people. He said we do that too, but you can only wire your own house. Not a flip or rental.

It doesn't make sense at all. You can inspect my personal house then you can also inspect a flip or rental I did and sign off or fail it that same as you would do for an electrician.

I eventually got the permit and the power has been on for months with no issues.

We really need less red tape on bullshite like this so people can and are willing to do some of their own repairs.

quote:

PE is more than just the stereotypical buyout model.


Obviously, there are varying forms. No one said otherwise, but there are some that are strictly in the buyout and maximize-prices model of whatever industry they decide to tackle.

In the roofing industry, there is a pretty rich guy on YouTube who had no idea how to run a roofing company, but he bought a 50-year-old established one anyway and documented the ways he was going to raise prices. His previous experience was buying out laundromats and car washes.

There are tons of PE firms that operate the same way he does.

It's a pretty typical model but yes there are other types of PE investments.



quote:

Maybe you’re dealing with some podunk “private equity” firms,


Why do you always come off as such a miserable tool?

quote:

but don’t you think a legit shop would be doing its due diligence before making offers?


Sure, and my business is profitable, very established in my industry, and there is still room for growth. The growth is expanding to other states, getting more clients, taking a larger cut from what I pay subs, etc so even with due diligence, I am confident I could sell to one.

I simply stated there is no room to constantly push higher pricing, as they have done in other industries.

re: Huang has resigned.

Posted by stout on 11/12/26 at 9:57 am to
quote:

The only mess was caused by suicidal empathy cancel culture tards clutching their pearls that came after Huang


This isn't cancel culture and in fact may be an international criminal issue


The board ousted him not because of the affairs, but because they are about to be in hot water for criminally routing chips to China that were banned by the US from being exported

There is more to come from that story. Just wait


quote:

The company connection: Reuters reported that Alice Huang was the controlling shareholder of Singapore-based Megaspeed International, a major Nvidia customer.

The export investigation: Megaspeed has reportedly been investigated over whether it helped Chinese customers obtain advanced Nvidia chips subject to U.S. export restrictions.

The potential scale: Reuters reported allegations that Huang's relationship helped facilitate at least $7.5 billion in Nvidia chip shipments to China. Those allegations have not been established as criminal wrongdoing by Nvidia.

Congress is getting involved: On November 11, Senators Elizabeth Warren and Chris Coons requested preservation of government records concerning Nvidia chip exports, potential diversion to China, and the suspected intelligence operation.

re: Has the AI bubble peaked?

Posted by stout on 11/12/26 at 9:40 am to
quote:

China has never been an innovative country.


They are known to copy and steal but they are all in on AI because of the implications of being first. They are spending a ton of time and resources to slow us down.

re: Has the AI bubble peaked?

Posted by stout on 11/12/26 at 9:38 am to
quote:

who gives a shite who gets there first?



Do you really not understand the issue?

If China has a more advanced AI than we do, there is no system in America that they will not be able to find a vulnerability in and exploit. We will have no way to shore those issues up using our own AI if we are lagging behind.

That is the simplest reason

Has the AI bubble peaked?

Posted by stout on 11/12/26 at 9:31 am
Dems are threatening to regulate it and want to control it "for the good of society"

Women now have the power to stop data centers from being built because they prefer a trampoline park in its place

Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here.



Fed will hike rates again, meaning money to keep expanding a yet unprofitable industry gets more expensive

The architect of modern GFX chips is fornicating like a rabbit, leading to the Nvidia board demanding that he resign

Possible criminal investigation for Nvidia and Jensen over chips that made their way to China despite a ban

No real advances reported in a while, and everyone and their mom has an LLM now fighting for the same consumer revenue

Elon himself promised we would be able to build video games and whole movies by now, but that isn't happening because advancement is already slower than anticipated before the Dems regulate anything.

Last week Grokbot had to raise prices unannounced because it cost more to run than SpaceX originally anticipated.

I am sure I am missing some issues that have popped up recently



Seems like we may have reached the top of the mountain for now


The past two weeks have been great for the CCP, though

re: Huang has resigned.

Posted by stout on 11/12/26 at 9:11 am to
quote:

Considering just how big NVIDIA is this is pretty massive


Huang was more than just a CEO.

Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here.



Dude created the current GFX industry as we know it. This is on par with if Elon were to resign. Everything about Nvidia changed today. No one will run it as he did.

quote:

The PE guys piss me off, just seems like such a lazy dirty sleezy model they run.



One big topic on the OT is always the price of replacing an HVAC

I have a national account to buy Goodman units. Goodman is a cheap brand but you see a lot of them installed everywhere.

A 3 ton Goodman installed by an HVAC company is running $10K to $12K, last I checked. That is just replacing the inside and outside unit. No ductwork.

I can buy that same unit with the collars and plenum material, new whip, and lineset if needed for $3500 to $4K give or take and depending on which state I buy it in. Most replacements take 4-6 hours, maybe.

I understand that the A/C company must warranty their work, pay one or two guys for work that day, and turn a profit, but I am not sure that justifies a markup where they double their money on each job.

Everyone blames the EPA rules for raising the prices on equipment, and that is some of it, but a lot of the price increases came when PE entered the industry and raised prices so the little guys followed suit and started charging more too.
quote:

with the PE guys coming in and ramping up margins.



I always laugh because about once a week I get an inquiry from a PE firm.

All they see is I run a multi-state property management and construction firm, so they think they want to buy me out. What they don't understand is that there is very little room in my industry to raise margins since it's literally HUD-controlled.

One day, I might not tell them that part and sell to them anyway.
quote:

From a business perspective is I don't get how they can write off the cash/illegal payments and make it work



They don't need to. Illegals can get an ITIN but most Mexicans aren't paying taxes on that ITIN so they dont care if they get a 1099

In some crews, one Mexican will get an ITIN for his mom who is still in Mexico then the contractor will 1099 that ITIN and obviously the mom in Mexico doesn't care and is not filing a return.

Then there's the use of shell companies, Mexicans just flat-out stealing identities, etc

There's also the Mexican payroll way. An American company hires a payroll firm in Mexico. The payroll firm helps them set up a "business" in Mexico to do their "paperwork," or something so the American company pays the payroll company and the payroll company pays the Mexican to his bank in Mexico even though he is here in the US working.

Also, some of those guys just straight up get a large job and get the homeowner to pay them cash then they dont report that job and use the cash to pay labor until they run out of money then do it again. This happens a ton during the confusion of a hurricane-hit area.

It is literally all fraud.
quote:

Construction labor is already stupid expensive even with illegals.



I could tell you the real reasons and it doesn't have much to do with labor cost as it does several other factors

One of the worst factors is the rise of paper contractors and private equity firms both swinging for the fences for huge margins. Both are guilty of pushing roofing replacement prices sky high and ruining that for homeowners. No way should they double their money on a roof job but they do. That's why so many get into it

PE has also been buying up 40-year-old plumbing businesses and raising prices for a long time now. Same with HVAC.

Then there is the workers' comp and GL costs.

Millions of reasons.

Labor factors into it but really the paper contractors could easily take smaller margins.

In what I do, we don't get to charge as high as those guys because rates are set by HUD for standard work, and stuff we bid is guided by a cost estimator that HUD must review and approve, but there is more than enough profit for me after paying my crews, and I don't employ a single foreigner. In fact, all of my crews are subs with their own insurance and employees.

Those guys could absorb some of the pay difference and truthfully, Mexicans aren't that much cheaper anymore. The gap of what a Mexican demands and what an American might demand has shrunk a lot over the years because Mexicans found out how much their bosses were making.
Charlie Kirk summed it up best when he was invited to speak at this roofers association conference.

"We are not tough enough or strong enough to do mass deportations" :bow:


Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here.
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here.


Too many industries are addicted to cheap foreign labor. Everything from Tech and its H-1 B slaves, to manufacturing, construction, farming, etc

It's not that Americans won't do the jobs. Sure, some of it is, but that unwillingness would shrink with better wages on those jobs.

Of course, some of it is on the bullshite bureaucratic red tape that comes with hiring Americans over foreigners too, because that's an additional cost that quickly adds up.

Young men can't go into tech jobs because the Indians are taking them all, so recently they've been told to go into trades, but illegal Mexicans suppress wages there too. Future prospects sucks for them more than any other group in America. I understand why many of them feel hopeless, and their votes are swinging like a pendulum, hoping one side will eventually hear them.