Alltheway Tigers!

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We’ll have high oil prices for the next two years while we continue to put economic pressure on Iran. The only way we get a deal is with massive concessions.

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But we don’t have high oil prices. They are just about where they were 2-3 years ago. We do have higher gas prices, but the decline slower than they rise. Over time, they will come in alignment with oil prices.

Many are in a rush to declare defeat for various reasons, many political. USA is facing a nation-state that has resources and it takes time. Trump does not help himself at all trying to declare a quick victory.

Overall, we are winning and this is winnable if we can trade for time. Refineries are the issues atm along with establishing new distribution lines. Once these issues are just partially solved, then the Straits become less and less important, along with Iran’s only card. It is their only card and it degrades over time as the markets figure out how to deliver products through emerging new distribution lines. It is somewhat just a math problem. Who has more time.

Just place a drone trail on it. Keep the jets for big game.

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Iran has played us like fools. They know Trump isn’t going to put boots on the ground and it’s all just a bunch of talk.

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More like they know the American people, for the most part, are impatient and short-term focus. They don’t see beyond the edge of their shoes, if they can even see their toes.

We have zero patience.

Roughly, $1 change in crude oil shifts pump prices by 2.4 cents.

Since the beginning of this year, how crude oil is refined and delivered to international endpoints have changed dramatically. Oil today is at $78, just about the bottom price between 2022 to 2024. Before those dates, it was in the $46 to $65 range, excluding COVID.

Given the above, the price at the pump should be back in the $2.90 to $3.25 range. However, what is factoring into today’s price is the uncertainty of Strait of Hormuz AND the rerouting of crude oil sources to refineries to the end points mentioned above. Given that pump prices tend to shot up very quickly when crude oil price spikes, but falls down slowly as stations protect their profit margins when crude drops, we are experiencing that slow fall.

By Xmas, given the same circumstances today geo-politically and economics, I believe price at the pump will be down 25 to 50 cents from today. Strait works itself out and refineries don’t blow up, maybe better.

Long-term, I can see oil back in the $50-$60 range. Alternatively routes to the Straits, other refineries outside of the Middle East come online, alternative energies and so on.

Establish your own church. Construct a tower with loudspeakers. Play Zeppelin to call the faithful to your religion. Timing might just coincide with other religions.

All faiths must be respected.

20B is nothing. Anyone worried about the cost is just playing politics. We blow 20B on random programs all day.

Given all the facts and scenarios today and price that into Feb before all this started and the experts would put oil at $150-$200. We are at $80-$100.

No doubt, Iranian leadership is willing to let Iran suffer, much like WW2 Germany in 44-45 and the cost on all sides in 44-45 was high.

It is the will of the Iranian leadership vs the fickle American public and a polarizing US president.

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We are 6 months in on this and not looking like we will "win"

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WW2 compared to this conflict today.

The Allies took the war home to the Axis in a very special way. Firebombs, flatten cities and so on. Iran has fresh water, media coverage, and electricity.

Left wants a summer time narrative to march and disrupt before the mid-terms. It is that simple. They thought what happen along the MS Gulf Coast was the ticket but the truth started to melt the narrative pretty quick as soon as by all the national activists exiting stage right and fast.

Simple block at LSU-UNO having a law school.