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re: MSU offense vs. OM defense

Posted by SECRantLurker123 on 10/12/14 at 11:52 am
This isn't even a question.

Sportsbook.ag had the game listed as Ole Miss -6 vs State.

State doesn't stand much of a chance.
quote:

So did you see where Alabama had twice the amount of penalties that OM had? Quit whining you baby back bitch.


Actually, yes.

I watched Alabama commit those penalties and I watched the Refs throw the flags.

So, yes. They did throw a few flags. They can't simply not call anything. They have to try to mix in every other correct call to hide what they're doing.

Nevertheless, I watched OM push your shite in and overcome your team and the referees.

Thoroughly dominating performance.

Furthermore, I watched the end of the game live.

I proceeded to watch as the umpiring crew called for a replay of a CLEAR and indisputable in real-time Ole Miss TD to take the lead.

I also proceeded to watch as the umpiring crew called for a replay of a CLEAR and indisputable in real-time Ole Miss INT at the end of the game that sealed the victory.

How does a crew call for instant replay on non-questionable calls to look for any sort of way to over turn a call and yet not even hesitate to review calls on several Alabama fumbles during the game?

If you don't see that bias, you are truly a gumptard and don't appreciate this game like the rest of us.
quote:

It's tuesday and you guys are still worrying about the calls you didn't get. Definitely shows that y'all aren't used to winning.


I'm an impartial observer. It just shows that your team gets catered to an unreasonable amount that it's obvious. This shite needs to get called out because the rest of the country is tired of having to beat your talent and the refs. That's all.

Plus, if a team pushes your shite in so bad that it's your worst loss in over a decade, they should get the publicity that comes from that type of arse beating.

You lost this game by over 3 touchdowns. How do you feel?
30-7 is the score if Refs would've called 2 obvious plays. That would be the worse Alabama loss since 27-3 against LSU in 2003.

That's what this was. Alabama's worst beatdown in 11 years.
LINK

Change the Speed setting to .25 and you'll see clearly in the second angle that the ball is coming out well before any part of Jones's body is down. Ole Miss came out of the pile with the ball at the Alabama 14 yard line. It wasn't even reviewed.

The sad thing about it is, is Freeze was asking if he could challenge the play and the Referee just backed away without giving him any sort of answer. Alabama quickly snapped the ball before he challenged it.

Can someone make a gif of this?

Imagine if this would've been called correctly and resulted in a TD given that OM would've taken over at the 15 and the Refs had also called the facemask correctly against Alabama that resulted in a TD For them. That would've put the score at 30-10. **EDIT** Actually, Alabama went on to kick a FG from this drive that would've never happened. Real score of this game is more like 30-7.

This game was nowhere close to what the 23-17 score indicated.

Damn paid off officials.
Chad Green is the official's name you are looking for. He is usually the Head Linesman of one of the SEC games each week.

Can't find any sort of bio but I'm sure you internet sleuths are up to the task.
You realize that both A&M and LSU will be unranked after this weekend, right? Even though you've looked good, he will still not have beaten a legit Top 25 team.
Vegas's system also opened the game with a 4.5 point spread...Bama's lowest regular season spread in 5 years. So their analytical system also had this as Alabama's most difficult game. Both systems look at deeper statistics and matchups than just the name on the jersey.
this weekend. According to his advanced numbers, it would be Alabama's most difficult game this year and least likely to win.

Alabama at Ole Miss (3:30 p.m. ET, CBS). Win probability: Ole Miss 59.8%.

LINK


Gumps fricked.
quote:


Posted by Message
3down10
Who has a better chance of winning: Ole Miss vs Bama or Arkansas vs aTm
Those links says Ole Miss only has a 51% chance of beating LSU and yet a 49% chance of beating Alabama.


We have a 15%er on our hands!!!
According to ESPN:

Arkansas beating aTm: 29.2% chance
LINK

Ole Miss beating Alabama: 49% chance
LINK
You realize there are actual probabilities out there based on on the field results/statistics thus far?

Here's what the ESPN FPI says:

LINK

The percentage below each team is the percent chance they give OM to beat each team. This is based on like 10,000 simulations of their program.

Sat, Sept 27
vs Memphis
87.7% 7.2 (50) --
Sat, Oct 4
vs #3 Alabama
49.0% 26.0 (1) --
Sat, Oct 11
@ #6 Texas A&M
35.0% 25.6 (2) --
Sat, Oct 18
vs Tennessee
86.4% 8.2 (44) --
Sat, Oct 25
@ #17 LSU
51.7% 18.8 (12) --
Sat, Nov 1
vs #5 Auburn
50.1% 25.6 (3) --
Sat, Nov 8
vs Presbyterian
99.9% -- --
Sat, Nov 22
@ Arkansas
56.4% 16.9 (20) --
Sat, Nov 29
vs #14 Mississippi State
66.3% 18.9 (11)

As you can see, OM has a 49% chance to beat Alabama as Alabama has only a 51% probability of beating OM according to ESPN. The only other team OM is projected to lose to is Texas AM at 35% probability for OM to win.

So in your format, it's Tenn 86.4% > MSU (must play at Ole Miss) 66.3% > ARKY 56.4% > LSU 51.7% > Auburn 50.1% > Alabama 49% > A&M 35%
Because this got skipped in the middle school short dick measuring contest the thread became.



I'd agree that they got this way because other teams have lost allowing them to move up by default, but if you take a look at almost any objective rating system this year you will see Ole Miss in the Top 15 and usually the Top 10.


Examples include ESPN FPI, Warren Nolan NPI, Football Outsiders' F+ to name a few. These systems try to really pick apart games that have been played and go as far as analyzing each individual play to compute how good and complete a team is.

If you look at OM's results, sure they haven't played a top tier team yet but the results of who they have played have been pretty stellar as far as complete games and results go. And the competition is better than just beating up on 3 patsies. Granted it was last year, but the teams they have beaten were all bowl teams last year and projected to do well this year (looking doubtful for Vandy). In fact, Boise State may end up running the table and if it weren't for Ole Miss beating them, they'd likely steal one of the 4 playoff spots at the end of the year so we have them to thank for that.

Football Outsiders F+:

LINK


Rk Team Record F/+ Last Wk Change S&P+ Rk FEI Rk
1 Florida State 2-0 32.7% 1 0 270.4 1 0.307 2
2 Oregon 3-0 28.5% 2 0 254.4 3 0.314 1
3 Alabama 3-0 27.4% 3 0 263.4 2 0.231 8
4 Stanford 2-1 22.4% 5 1 242.3 8 0.253 4
5 Oklahoma 3-0 22.0% 4 -1 244.9 4 0.226 10
6 Ole Miss 3-0 21.6% 16 10 242.1 9 0.235 7
7 Auburn 2-0 21.5% 7 0 244.2 5 0.218 12
8 Michigan State 1-1 20.8% 11 3 243.1 7 0.210 14
9 Texas A&M 3-0 20.8% 8 -1 240.7 10 0.224 11
10 LSU 3-0 20.2% 9 -1 235.1 14 0.247 5


Warren Nolan NPI:

LINK


Records include games against Division I opponents only.
Record Nolan Power Index Strength of Schedule Polls
Team W L Win Pct Rank NPI Rank SOS Rank AP Coaches
Auburn 3 0 1.0000 1 122.33 1 0.9167 2 5 5
Oklahoma 3 0 1.0000 1 122.06 2 0.7778 18 4 4
Ole Miss 3 0 1.0000 1 117.98 3 0.6296 48 10 12
Pittsburgh 3 0 1.0000 1 116.13 4 0.7593 19 33 43
Mississippi State 3 0 1.0000 1 115.94 5 0.7222 25 27 27
UCLA 3 0 1.0000 1 113.91 6 0.8148 11 12 10
BYU 3 0 1.0000 1 112.43 7 0.5185 81 21 23
Alabama 3 0 1.0000 1 111.69 8 0.7037 31 3 2
Syracuse 2 0 1.0000 1 111.22 9 0.9444 1
Texas A&M 3 0 1.0000 1 110.94 10 0.7222 25 6 7


ESPN's FPI:

LINK


RK TEAM W-L PROJ W-L WIN OUT% CONF WIN% REM SOS RK FPI
1 Florida State, ACC 2-0 11.1 - 1.6 15.1 61.9 38 25.6
2 Auburn, SEC 3-0 9.2 - 3.0 1.3 14.9 9 25.2
3 Alabama, SEC 3-0 9.4 - 2.9 2.1 16.3 2 25.0
4 Oregon, Pac-12 3-0 10.8 - 2.0 9.4 56.1 18 25.0
5 Texas A&M, SEC 3-0 9.5 - 2.7 2.1 15.8 14 24.9
6 Oklahoma, Big 12 3-0 10.5 - 1.5 18.5 53.6 41 24.4
7 Baylor, Big 12 3-0 10.1 - 1.9 9.1 33.7 42 22.5
8 Ole Miss, SEC 3-0 9.1 - 3.1 1.1 11.3 11 22.5
9 Georgia, SEC 1-1 9.0 - 3.3 3.2 12.4 52 21.8
10 LSU, SEC 3-0 7.9 - 4.1 0.1 3.0 3 19.3


I'd agree that they got this way because other teams have lost allowing them to move up by default, but if you take a look at almost any objective rating system this year you will see Ole Miss in the Top 15 and usually the Top 10.


Examples include ESPN FPI, Warren Nolan NPI, Football Outsiders' F+ to name a few. These systems try to really pick apart games that have been played and go as far as analyzing each individual play to compute how good and complete a team is.

If you look at OM's results, sure they haven't played a top tier team yet but the results of who they have played have been pretty stellar as far as complete games and results go. And the competition is better than just beating up on 3 patsies. Granted it was last year, but the teams they have beaten were all bowl teams last year and projected to do well this year (looking doubtful for Vandy). In fact, Boise State may end up running the table and if it weren't for Ole Miss beating them, they'd likely steal one of the 4 playoff spots at the end of the year so we have them to thank for that.

Football Outsiders F+:

LINK


Rk Team Record F/+ Last Wk Change S&P+ Rk FEI Rk
1 Florida State 2-0 32.7% 1 0 270.4 1 0.307 2
2 Oregon 3-0 28.5% 2 0 254.4 3 0.314 1
3 Alabama 3-0 27.4% 3 0 263.4 2 0.231 8
4 Stanford 2-1 22.4% 5 1 242.3 8 0.253 4
5 Oklahoma 3-0 22.0% 4 -1 244.9 4 0.226 10
6 Ole Miss 3-0 21.6% 16 10 242.1 9 0.235 7
7 Auburn 2-0 21.5% 7 0 244.2 5 0.218 12
8 Michigan State 1-1 20.8% 11 3 243.1 7 0.210 14
9 Texas A&M 3-0 20.8% 8 -1 240.7 10 0.224 11
10 LSU 3-0 20.2% 9 -1 235.1 14 0.247 5


Warren Nolan NPI:

LINK


Records include games against Division I opponents only.
Record Nolan Power Index Strength of Schedule Polls
Team W L Win Pct Rank NPI Rank SOS Rank AP Coaches
Auburn 3 0 1.0000 1 122.33 1 0.9167 2 5 5
Oklahoma 3 0 1.0000 1 122.06 2 0.7778 18 4 4
Ole Miss 3 0 1.0000 1 117.98 3 0.6296 48 10 12
Pittsburgh 3 0 1.0000 1 116.13 4 0.7593 19 33 43
Mississippi State 3 0 1.0000 1 115.94 5 0.7222 25 27 27
UCLA 3 0 1.0000 1 113.91 6 0.8148 11 12 10
BYU 3 0 1.0000 1 112.43 7 0.5185 81 21 23
Alabama 3 0 1.0000 1 111.69 8 0.7037 31 3 2
Syracuse 2 0 1.0000 1 111.22 9 0.9444 1
Texas A&M 3 0 1.0000 1 110.94 10 0.7222 25 6 7


ESPN's FPI:

LINK


RK TEAM W-L PROJ W-L WIN OUT% CONF WIN% REM SOS RK FPI
1 Florida State, ACC 2-0 11.1 - 1.6 15.1 61.9 38 25.6
2 Auburn, SEC 3-0 9.2 - 3.0 1.3 14.9 9 25.2
3 Alabama, SEC 3-0 9.4 - 2.9 2.1 16.3 2 25.0
4 Oregon, Pac-12 3-0 10.8 - 2.0 9.4 56.1 18 25.0
5 Texas A&M, SEC 3-0 9.5 - 2.7 2.1 15.8 14 24.9
6 Oklahoma, Big 12 3-0 10.5 - 1.5 18.5 53.6 41 24.4
7 Baylor, Big 12 3-0 10.1 - 1.9 9.1 33.7 42 22.5
8 Ole Miss, SEC 3-0 9.1 - 3.1 1.1 11.3 11 22.5
9 Georgia, SEC 1-1 9.0 - 3.3 3.2 12.4 52 21.8
10 LSU, SEC 3-0 7.9 - 4.1 0.1 3.0 3 19.3