PeteRose

Analytics has changed coach decision making. But I see coaches misapply the concept and abuse it.

A few weeks ago, bears were playing the browns. Early 3rd qtr, bears were up 14-0 with the ball near midfield. It was 4th and 4 and they decided to go for it. I couldn’t believe it. Cleveland showed no sign of life till that point. I know analysis say to go for it since it’s the higher percentage play. Let’s assume you convert 4th and 4 at 54%. If the bears punt and pin browns deep, the chance of the browns failing to score is much greater than 54%, making it the higher percentage play. That’s why sometimes you have to look beyond analytics.

This game vs packers. They went for it 4th and 4 at their own 32. I’m all for aggressive play calling. It’s one thing to go 4th and 1 or 2 at the goal line. It’s another thing trying to get 4 yds at your own 32. If you convert 4th and goal, you’re getting points. If you miss, you still have your opponent backed up.

If you convert at your own 32, you still got a long way to go to get points. If you miss, the other team is in scoring territory. If you flip a coin to get a TD, it’s 50/50. But if need to flip a coin and then flip again later in the drive, the odds are way against you.

Lastly, football is an emotional game. If you go for it at your own 32 and not make it, it’s demoralizing for the team.

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The football gods revealed this truth to me in a vision as I was walking out of Costco.

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I was also at Costco but saw a guy loading up on cheese. That must mean Packers are a lock tonight.

You sure these guys aren’t plumbers in the off season?

That’s nothing. One night LeBron decided shoot a free throw with his eyes close, and he hit the front of the rim.

250lb, but individually 130 and 120 each.

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I know what I’m capable of.”

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Taking a lot of sacks.

Drives to the basket, misses lay up, berates ref about not getting the call, doesn’t run back to help out his defense. Replays shows no contact but announcer said his arm was swiped. Other announcer must’ve gave him a “come on bruh” glance and he responded “why you looking at me like that”.

I first watch him vs LSU. I told myself “I never heard of this guy but he’s better than Nuss”.


Last night his play brought so much life and energy to the team. When he threw a catchable ball slightly behind he owned up to it saying my bad. That play where Georgia had the scoop and score, he could’ve folded and said “not our night” but he kept balling. Then that scramble where he circles back and threw for the first down was amazing. When your teammates see how you play and how you conduct yourself, they naturally will lay it all out for you.

It’s amazing how the best announcers can call the game on the most random and crazy plays. For most of us, our natural instinct would be “oh shite” or “what the frick” and then quietly watch in disbelief on that play.

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I firmly subscribe to “it’s hard to beat a good time twice” and it turns out this way 90% of the time.

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That’s only half the equation. It’s hard to beat a team twice, assuming you haven’t played them yet. So yes, it’s hard to beat a team twice. But if you beat them the first time(both capable teams), it’s 50/50 you beat them a 2nd time.

It’s like saying it’s hard to flip two heads in a row. Well if you say that before any flip, it’s true. But if the first flip is a head, it’s 50/50.

The key is timing and when you say “it’s hard to beat a team twice”.