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re: Fairhope, AL

Posted by LSUShock on 4/27/25 at 10:07 pm
Nice recs. We're stopping in Fairhope for a night between Little Rock and Mexico Beach, FL next month.
Walked along side Dierks Bentley on Bourbon Street. Not sure anyone knew who he was but me.

Sat by Akon at JFK waiting for a flight out. He was bearing a teal blue suit and gloss white shoes.

Steve Aoki and I ran into one another walking into the AAdvantage lounge in DFW. I let him go first.

Tom Watson was eating dinner at a local restaurant after pheasant hunting in Kansas one table away from us.

Caddied in Barry Sanders' group once.

Drank vegas bombs with Rob Riggle and Paul Rudd at The Hawk in Lawrence, KS 2011.

Was on a flight during COVID with about 20 people on it. Chuck Liddell was one of them with his wife. He was wearing a shirt that said I'm carrying and had arrows pointing to his arms.
This means you were using the Matson express service where they own their own terminal. It's a good reliable service, but it comes with a cost.

Here's today's market rates SHA to LAX.

Standard Carrier: $2,400/40'
Matson: $8,100/40'
Molson is a customer and a bit of an extremist, but he’s not wrong.

Relatively speaking ~70% of the US imports come from China. Of that 70%, 60% or so if all bookings since April 9 have been cancelled or postponed. Most of those cancellations are on post-production products. Those goods are done and ready for shipment, just sitting there. In line with his timelines, it will be May 9-June 9 when you start to see the impact of those goods not being where they intended to be.

I have a customer who imports 100s of containers of holiday decorations. His factory rep went to the manufacturer last week. He called back and said there are 1000s of containers worth of Walmart/Hobby Lobby/Target goods just sitting.

Aside from the inventory shortage, the bigger problem here is that once/if this resolves, everyone turns the faucet on at once. And the capacity is fixed, which means the carriers are licking their chops to charge everyone 3-5x normal ocean rates just like we saw 2020-2022. Vessels outside of LAX/LGB waiting again, the whole deal.

International supply chains run on fluidity and predictability. You stop the flow of goods for 6 weeks. It takes 5x that amount of time for the system to right itself. Even if the tariffs get resolved, the supply chain challenges are far from over.

And to everyone who always says, well that doesn’t affect me or my community, we buy local, I say go ask your local suppliers where they buy from. Everyone’s in bed with China even if you have a few degrees of separation directly. .
His timelines are estimates and on the high end, but they aren’t too far off base. I’m assuming he is referring more to when goods are finished in production to when they arrive at your door. If goods are ready today, they don’t just get on a boat and depart tomorrow. They have to meet cutoffs for weekly schedules. Usually adding 7-10 days from the true “cargo ready date”.

Then if it’s not one of a few main ports in China, the vessel operates on a string that makes port calls every few days along the way. The main voyage once departed trans-pacific is about 12-17 days depending on departure port. There’s no such thing as a fast boat, just a boat with fewer port calls and direct run to LAX. These usually only depart Shanghai or Ningbo. Get to LAX in 12 days, port at the Matson terminal (no waiting), unload next day, ship domestically a few days later. Cost is usually about 180% of standard ocean.
Go to importinfo.com and type in your city. More importers than you ever realized are around you.
What an incredible piece of content. Get Gruden to BR for a baseball team meeting.
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No businesses like that around me. Sounds like maybe something you'd find in larger metros.


Are you from KC, MO like your title says.

If so, you are surrounded by a lot more of this than you realize. Champion Teamwear, Gear for Sports, Branded Custom, S&S Sportswear, just to name a few.
quote:

I’ll say it for like the dozenth time, today was probably the most epic sporting event of my lifetime. The only thing I’m upset about is that it’s over



How old are you?

The Masters was great today because it was close, but it was a suffer fest of who wanted to choke the least down the stretch, which is kind of what golf is.Tiger just went robot for 20 years and made everyone forget that. Would have loved to see someone make a Schwartzel or Willet type run on the back to steal it. At least Rory won it in extras and didn’t choke it like he tried to.

How he pulled off the shots on 8, 15, and 17, but still needed a playoff to win is beyond me. He had everything on his side today, and still almost fricked it up. Ball on 11 should have been in the drink.

2006 AU vs LSU. Most heartbreaking loss of my youth. That was a championship team that lost 2 games it should have won that year.
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I agree. Declaring a trade war against basically everyone from the beginning was misguided.


It's kind of genius though.

I had customers shipping out of Vietnam that cancelled orders 2 days ago because of the 48% reciprocal tariff.

Then Trump freezes the reciprocals and places a 10% universal tariff on all countries other than China.

At 1pm, they were calling me asking to continue with bookings to get the goods moving out of Vietnam again.

A week ago they were at 0% tariff.

Today they are at 10% and feel like they are winners.
quote:

So the Tariffs just went into effect and this lady is already paying this ?

bullshite - More Fear Mongering


Fair question, but I'll give you some actual context considering businesses, you know, forecast the impact of costs on their business beyond just today.

The dates are based on when the vessel or airplane departed and the when the entry was filed. It's a bit more complex, but I'll keep it simple.

Prior to 2/4, an importer from China would have paid their general duty %. Let's call it 5%. $100,000 PO she owed $5,000.

Post 2/4, they were subjected to 10% addition. So, 5% + 10% - $15,000

Post 3/4, they were subjected to another 10%.So 5% + 10% + 10% - $25,000

Post 4/9, they are subjected to 5% + 10% + 10% + 34% + 50%. - $109,000

The majority of importers are also subject to Trump's original 2018 tariffs, so that equation is more likely.

5% + 10% + 10% + 34% + 50% + 25% = 134% or $134,000 Total Duty/Tariff obligation.

Has she paid it yet, probably not, but she probably has product that's been on order for 90+ days and is ready now through the end of the month which she has no option but to take. It's either been paid for 50% or in full.

Then she has customers who she likely sold that product to, on terms, at prices she was planning on at best based on a $25,000 duty.

Hence the post about SMBs talking about firing people or considering closing shop.

If this goes on 3-6 months, most SMBs don't have the cash flow to survive and will be in dire positions.

quote:

Your furniture?


North Carolina


:lol: :lol: High Point, North Carolina is likely the world's largest furniture market and manufacturing location. Furniture "makers" from all over the world there every year. 95% of them are importing fabric or furniture from Vietnam, Cambodia, Malaysia, China, etc.

I know because we work with them. Don't let them fool you. Everyone's importing.
The place is amazing and seems to grow in it's lore. I love watching the tournament even more after having been as a patron. It has that Tiger Stadium "ghost within the walls" kind of feeling where you know exactly where certain moments occurred on certain holes over the years. I love the course more every April.

From a participant standpoint, I think golf is still trying to figure itself out post TW/Phil prime and after the LIV/PGA split. It just lacks the energy when Big Cat is in contention.

I'll be pulling for Angel Cabrera to do something crazy this week.
I think that's a very naive POV. I'm close to the sun as this is what I do for a living, but importing is everywhere around you, whether you realize it or not.

Here's the import data report for Houma.

Every half decent sized city in the country has data like this or more. Half the people that work at importers don't even know they do it.




quote:


I dont know of many small businesses that focus on importing goods/services. Most small businesses I can think of are almost completely local with regards to goods and services.


There are FAR more than you realize in every community in this country. Everyone who makes any physical product is importing or dependent on importing in some capacity, even if it says Made in America on the box.
100%, I've got customers all across the board. 10 import containers a year. 1000 containers a year.

Enterprise accounts. Mom and pops.

The carnage in the middle market for those importing from China specifically is unavoidable.
I'm at 6%, so the economics are a little different. That said, I can't wait to pay off my house and throw a lot of extra money at it to do so earlier than most people ever will.
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They were successful in the early 2010’s because of talent identification and luck. No one thought Ron Baker would turn into the player he did. Van Vleet was a 3 star guy when WSU offered who rose in recruiting rankings the summer before his senior year after he had already committed. Carl Hall had heart issues that kept other schools away. Early had some grade and attitude issues that kept bigger schools away. They hit on every single guy in a 3-4 year stretch.


Well and you know... coaching. If the players were diamonds in the rough, so was Gregg Marshall. He was the perfect fit for a place like WSU, the game at the time, and the mentality it took to be successful here. Plus, the city always supports a winner, even back to the Turgeon days.

I still think he's the kind of coach that would be successful in today's game as well, but who knows with NIL. He's obviously a hot head and we've seen how that plays in today's college sports.