re: What’s your take on what happened?

quote:

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Bama needed a miracle to beat a shitty but motivated Auburn team last year. They didn’t have a prayer against us the next week.

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People use "news" media, entertainment media and social media to form strong opinions despite not having strong facts to back them up. After the fact, they mentally discount all the times they were wrong, often by finding a convenient scapegoat to blame.

There is a simple but painful way to fix that unwarranted high confidence in what we read/see/hear from media sources that are far removed from the real action and sometimes the truth: whenever you feel completely confident, just bet meaningful money on the outcomes. I've done that and the losses register more clearly in your mind.