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Top 4 teams all lose scenario
Posted on 11/27/22 at 1:56 pm
Posted on 11/27/22 at 1:56 pm
If all 4 top teams lose what does the top 4 look like after next weekend?
Posted on 11/27/22 at 2:18 pm to Dawg4Life47
quote:
GA/UM/TCU/OSU
probably.
bama has less than zero chance, not sure why people are so fixated on trying to make that a thing.
LSU would have been in the mix in this utterly chaotic situatiuon if they didn't have 3 losses, but they do, so now they don't.
Posted on 11/27/22 at 2:38 pm to WG_Dawg
I’m super confused on the confidence of Bama sneaking in. It started as a lulz and day by day people have been making it more and more possible in their minds.
Posted on 11/27/22 at 3:17 pm to olddawg26
Bama is a media darling, that’s why people are talking crazy shite
Posted on 11/27/22 at 7:00 pm to olddawg26
The rant has a hard bias for multiple SEC teams in the playoffs even if it’s unrealistic. Only chance Bama has is if TCU and USC lose even then it’s a long shot
Posted on 11/28/22 at 7:28 am to olddawg26
This topic inspired me to make a post on the SECR. As to the ultimate question int he OP of "what would the ranbkings be", I don't have a clue. No idea. But we can at least try to objectively compare what we're left with. Copy and paste below:
People still think the committee is no different than the coaches poll, where you move up or down based on what's happened around you in the rankings. They say "well if bama if 5th or 6th, and a bunch of chaos happens, they could move up to 4!" That's wrong, but just for fun let's play that out. Let's assume the absolute maximum amount of chaos possible and ALL FOUR teams at the top lose this weekened.
For starters, you'd have champions of the SEC (LSU), Big 12 (KSU), Pac (Utah), and Big 10 (Purdue) all with AT LEAST 3 losses, so all of those teams are not even in the discussion. UNC has mega losses as well so if they win they're irrelevant. If Clemson wins they'd be the only P5 champion with less than 3 losses. Since we're going with absolute maximum amount of chaos even possible we'll assume UNC wins. Here is how the revised teams would shake out:
12-1 UGA; division winner
12-1 Michigan; division winner
12-1 TCU; division winner
11-1 OSU; --
11-2 USC; division winner
10-2 Bama; --
10-2 UT; -- (beat alabama HTH)
So...even with utter chaos the likes of which CFB has never seen that would make 2007 look like a cool spring picnic, you still have at leats 5 teams with easy cases to have better resumes. Plus another team with the exact same resume (same record, didn't win division) that beat alabama head to head.
So then if the narrative shifts to, "well, that's actually TOO MUCH chaos. Pretend 1-3 all hold serve we really just need USC to lose so we can slip into 4". The situation above still stands in that you'd have a USC with more wins, equal losses, that played in it's CCG. They would have better wins than alabama, and both of the losses would be a "quality loss".
People still think the committee is no different than the coaches poll, where you move up or down based on what's happened around you in the rankings. They say "well if bama if 5th or 6th, and a bunch of chaos happens, they could move up to 4!" That's wrong, but just for fun let's play that out. Let's assume the absolute maximum amount of chaos possible and ALL FOUR teams at the top lose this weekened.
For starters, you'd have champions of the SEC (LSU), Big 12 (KSU), Pac (Utah), and Big 10 (Purdue) all with AT LEAST 3 losses, so all of those teams are not even in the discussion. UNC has mega losses as well so if they win they're irrelevant. If Clemson wins they'd be the only P5 champion with less than 3 losses. Since we're going with absolute maximum amount of chaos even possible we'll assume UNC wins. Here is how the revised teams would shake out:
12-1 UGA; division winner
12-1 Michigan; division winner
12-1 TCU; division winner
11-1 OSU; --
11-2 USC; division winner
10-2 Bama; --
10-2 UT; -- (beat alabama HTH)
So...even with utter chaos the likes of which CFB has never seen that would make 2007 look like a cool spring picnic, you still have at leats 5 teams with easy cases to have better resumes. Plus another team with the exact same resume (same record, didn't win division) that beat alabama head to head.
So then if the narrative shifts to, "well, that's actually TOO MUCH chaos. Pretend 1-3 all hold serve we really just need USC to lose so we can slip into 4". The situation above still stands in that you'd have a USC with more wins, equal losses, that played in it's CCG. They would have better wins than alabama, and both of the losses would be a "quality loss".
Posted on 11/28/22 at 7:31 am to WG_Dawg
Everything you say is right UNLESS the committee walks in and ranks Bama ahead of Ohio State this week. That will determine who’s up to bat if TCU/USC go down.
I don’t think Bama or OSU could both get in if both TCU and USC both loss. Feel like they’d keep TCU in in that scenario.
I don’t think Bama or OSU could both get in if both TCU and USC both loss. Feel like they’d keep TCU in in that scenario.
This post was edited on 11/28/22 at 7:33 am
Posted on 11/28/22 at 7:33 am to BranchDawg
I have full faith in the committee at this point; over 8 years they haven't made any decision that I really disagree with or have said "that's stupid, wtf were they thinking?"
I have a feeling that they'll keep with the human polls and have OSU ahead of bama as well. But hell, even if they don't, so what? What sense does it make for a team that had 0 losses that now has 1 loss be passed by a team that's had 2 losses for sevearl weeks now? Bama's resume is the exact same now as it has been.
I have a feeling that they'll keep with the human polls and have OSU ahead of bama as well. But hell, even if they don't, so what? What sense does it make for a team that had 0 losses that now has 1 loss be passed by a team that's had 2 losses for sevearl weeks now? Bama's resume is the exact same now as it has been.
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