SBNation - 2 Biggest Questions for the Iron Bowl

1. Can Alabama Protect Jalen Hurts?

Alabama’s offense ranks 103rd in Adjusted Sack Rate, and Auburn’s defense ranks eighth.

While the national sack rate tends to hover around 5.5 percent, only one of the top 10 non-option rushing quarterbacks (Mississippi State’s Nick Fitzgerald) is under 5 percent. And of the 10, Hurts’ 9 percent sack rate is lower than that of only UNLV’s Armani Rogers (10 percent).

Auburn is one of the best in the country at leveraging you into passing downs. Ask Georgia. The Tigers rank first in Standard Downs S&P+, allowing just a 36 percent success rate on such downs. They aren’t necessarily all that disruptive against the run (just 57th in stuff rate), but they hold you to minimal games and force you behind schedule.

Bama’s offense when behind schedule: good, but not great.

Alabama’s offense ranks 36th in Passing Downs S&P+ and 69th in passing-downs success rate; Auburn’s defense ranks fifth and 11th, respectively.

They had a ghastly 5 percent success rate on PDs against Florida State, 22 percent against LSU, and 25 percent against MSU. The only closer game in which Bama was able to bail itself out: Texas A&M, against whom the Tide had a 40 percent PDs success rate ... but only a 33 percent standard downs success rate. Odd game.

Subquestion: Can Auburn force Hurts to go to someone besides Calvin Ridley?

Hurts’ general pass progression has, on many occasion over the last two years, been as follows:

1. Look for Calvin Ridley.
2. Run.

Ridley has been targeted (72) more than Bama's next 3 receivers combined (69). Ridley has accounted for 52 catches and 858 yards. The other three have only combined for 35 catches and 545 yards.

Auburn’s done a mostly great job against No. 1 receivers this year. LSU’s D.J. Chark caught five of six balls for 150 yards, but he was the exception. Against seven other power conference opponents, the Tigers have allowed an average of seven targets, four catches, and 51 yards per game to No. 1 receivers. If that’s what Ridley ends up with, the Tigers would live with that.

2. How does Auburn stay on schedule?

Success Rate+. It is an opponent-adjusted version of the success rate measure defined here. Every play is deemed a success or failure based on down-and-distance criteria: gaining 50 percent of necessary yardage on first down, 70 percent on second down and 100 percent on third and fourth down. Success rate is basically an on-base percentage for college football, and it allows us to track which teams are staying on schedule and ahead of the chains, so to speak.

Of Bama's 12 losses , six came to teams ranked in the SR+ top five and 10 came to teams in the top 20. If you're able to effectively move the ball four to six yards at a time and avoid passing downs, only then can you utilize the tempo and spread principles we've seen Alabama struggle with from time to time. Plenty of spread offenses have failed miserably against the Tide in this regard.

Auburn is ranked 9th in SR+

Clemson and LSU are the only teams to hold them under 6.3 yards per play. Auburn has torched two excellent defenses, with 40 points and averaged 6.9 yards per play against Georgia (No. 11 in Def. S&P+) and 49 points and 9.1 yards per play against Mississippi State (16th).

The formula is simple: soften you up with Kerryon Johnson, then hit you deep.

Over his last seven games, Johnson has averaged 27 carries and 141 yards per game. He doesn't have to do everything; he just needs to keep his average over about 5 yards per carry for the defense to fail against run/pass options and play action.

The Georgia game was a master class in patience. Jarrett Stidham's first 15 pass attempts of that game produced eight completions for 60 yards and a sack. As UGA began to strain, however, and as Johnson found more room, Stidham began to get more aggressive. Over his last 10 attempts, he completed eight of nine throws for 154 yards and took only one more sack. He finished with touchdown passes of 32, 42, and 55 yards.

[b]This all sounds great. But following this formula means running on Alabama.

And while this team isn't quite Saban's best (and while this defense is far from healthy), the Tide still destroy your run game. They are fourth in Rushing S&P+, are allowing gains of five-plus yards on just 29 percent of rushes (third-lowest rate in the country), and have allowed just two rushes of 30-plus yards all season.

You don't need 30-yarders to beat Alabama, but you at least need five-yarders. Will Auburn find the space?

It's not surprising to note that in the Tigers' two losses, AU backs averaged just 4.4 yards per carry; it's also not surprising that Stidham, therefore, struggled to pass. He was 22-for-50 for 244 yards and took 14 sacks (11 against Clemson). Success leads to more success for Auburn, and failure leads to more failure.

SBNation - 2 Biggest Questions for the Iron Bowl