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S&P Week 11 Picks : predictions showing to be very accruate
Posted on 11/10/16 at 1:14 pm
Posted on 11/10/16 at 1:14 pm
From the link
Week 11 Picks S&P+
- Teams projected to have a 95-99% chance of winning are 47-0 (100%) with an average scoring margin of +39.
- Teams projected to have a 90-94% chance of winning are 62-3 (95%) with an average scoring margin of +24.
- Teams projected to have an 85-89% chance of winning are 49-6 (89%) with an average scoring margin of +21.
- Teams projected to have an 80-84% chance of winning are 58-13 (82%) with an average scoring margin of +19.
- Teams projected to have a 75-79% chance of winning are 54-18 (75%) with an average scoring margin of +13.
- Teams projected to have a 70-74% chance of winning are 49-15 (77%) with an average scoring margin of +14
- Teams projected to have a 65-69% chance of winning are 47-16 (75%) with an average scoring margin of +11.
- Teams projected to have a 60-64% chance of winning are 46-21 (69%) with an average scoring margin of +6.
- Teams projected to have a 55-59% chance of winning are 42-28 (60%) with an average scoring margin of +3.
- Teams projected to have a 50-54% chance of winning are 28-30 (48%) with an average scoring margin of +2.
So - if you have a 85%+ chance of winning, you should feel pretty good.
Mississippi State @ Alabama
Alabama 44-10
Alabama 97.4% win chance
Teams projected to have a 95-99% chance of winning are 47-0 (100%) with an average scoring margin of +39.
South Carolina @ Florida
Florida 31-11
Florida 87.5% win chance
Teams projected to have an 85-89% chance of winning are 49-6 (89%) with an average scoring margin of +21.
Kentucky @ Tennessee
Tennessee 35-22
Tennessee 76.5% win chance
Teams projected to have a 75-79% chance of winning are 54-18 (75%) with an average scoring margin of +13.
Auburn @ Georgia
Auburn 36-17
Auburn 86.9% win chance
Teams projected to have an 85-89% chance of winning are 49-6 (89%) with an average scoring margin of +21.
Vanderbilt @ Missouri
Missouri 32-23
Missouri 70.3% win chance
Teams projected to have a 70-74% chance of winning are 49-15 (77%) with an average scoring margin of +14.
LSU @ Arkansas
LSU 33-21
LSU 76.3% win chance
Teams projected to have a 75-79% chance of winning are 54-18 (75%) with an average scoring margin of +13.
Ole Miss @ Texas A&M
N/A - Stats are based on Chad Kelly being around
Texas A&M 33-32 (53.9%)
Week 11 Picks S&P+
- Teams projected to have a 95-99% chance of winning are 47-0 (100%) with an average scoring margin of +39.
- Teams projected to have a 90-94% chance of winning are 62-3 (95%) with an average scoring margin of +24.
- Teams projected to have an 85-89% chance of winning are 49-6 (89%) with an average scoring margin of +21.
- Teams projected to have an 80-84% chance of winning are 58-13 (82%) with an average scoring margin of +19.
- Teams projected to have a 75-79% chance of winning are 54-18 (75%) with an average scoring margin of +13.
- Teams projected to have a 70-74% chance of winning are 49-15 (77%) with an average scoring margin of +14
- Teams projected to have a 65-69% chance of winning are 47-16 (75%) with an average scoring margin of +11.
- Teams projected to have a 60-64% chance of winning are 46-21 (69%) with an average scoring margin of +6.
- Teams projected to have a 55-59% chance of winning are 42-28 (60%) with an average scoring margin of +3.
- Teams projected to have a 50-54% chance of winning are 28-30 (48%) with an average scoring margin of +2.
So - if you have a 85%+ chance of winning, you should feel pretty good.
Mississippi State @ Alabama
Alabama 44-10
Alabama 97.4% win chance
Teams projected to have a 95-99% chance of winning are 47-0 (100%) with an average scoring margin of +39.
South Carolina @ Florida
Florida 31-11
Florida 87.5% win chance
Teams projected to have an 85-89% chance of winning are 49-6 (89%) with an average scoring margin of +21.
Kentucky @ Tennessee
Tennessee 35-22
Tennessee 76.5% win chance
Teams projected to have a 75-79% chance of winning are 54-18 (75%) with an average scoring margin of +13.
Auburn @ Georgia
Auburn 36-17
Auburn 86.9% win chance
Teams projected to have an 85-89% chance of winning are 49-6 (89%) with an average scoring margin of +21.
Vanderbilt @ Missouri
Missouri 32-23
Missouri 70.3% win chance
Teams projected to have a 70-74% chance of winning are 49-15 (77%) with an average scoring margin of +14.
LSU @ Arkansas
LSU 33-21
LSU 76.3% win chance
Teams projected to have a 75-79% chance of winning are 54-18 (75%) with an average scoring margin of +13.
Ole Miss @ Texas A&M
N/A - Stats are based on Chad Kelly being around
Texas A&M 33-32 (53.9%)
This post was edited on 11/10/16 at 1:17 pm
5
Posted on 11/10/16 at 1:33 pm to Triple Daves
yay stats!!!!!
forreal tho, S&P+ is pretty useful.
forreal tho, S&P+ is pretty useful.
Posted on 11/10/16 at 1:38 pm to Triple Daves
quote:
Auburn 86.9% win chance
Teams projected to have an 85-89% chance of winning are 49-6 (89%) with an average scoring margin of +21.
frick
Posted on 11/10/16 at 1:47 pm to Triple Daves
The correlation of actual record to projected chance of winning is scary accurate
Posted on 11/10/16 at 1:58 pm to Leonard
However - it isn't all powerful.
- Florida was 81.1% over Arkansas
- Texas A&M was 79.7% over Mississippi State
- Georgia was 82.9% over Vanderbilt
But more times than not it's in the sweet spot
- Florida was 81.1% over Arkansas
- Texas A&M was 79.7% over Mississippi State
- Georgia was 82.9% over Vanderbilt
But more times than not it's in the sweet spot
This post was edited on 11/10/16 at 1:59 pm
Posted on 11/10/16 at 3:48 pm to Triple Daves
quote:
Vanderbilt @ Missouri
Missouri 32-23
Missouri 70.3% win chance
Okay, this just does not make sense to me. Missouri has not exactly been great. I think it's just down to Vandy's offense not being very good, but I just do not see the separation to be a 70.3% favorite.
Posted on 11/10/16 at 4:13 pm to DoreonthePlains
quote:
Okay, this just does not make sense to me. Missouri has not exactly been great. I think it's just down to Vandy's offense not being very good, but I just do not see the separation to be a 70.3% favorite.
I don't get it either. There is always a team or two that the computers seem to love for no real apparent reason and Missouri is that team this year. They rank much higher than conventional wisdom would make you think in almost all the analytical polls. I have no idea why.
Posted on 11/10/16 at 4:34 pm to Triple Daves
quote:
Okay, this just does not make sense to me. Missouri has not exactly been great. I think it's just down to Vandy's offense not being very good, but I just do not see the separation to be a 70.3% favorite.
I don't get it either. There is always a team or two that the computers seem to love for no real apparent reason and Missouri is that team this year. They rank much higher than conventional wisdom would make you think in almost all the analytical polls. I have no idea why.
Mizzou had some stat padding games, but fell apart in conference play.
Posted on 11/10/16 at 4:35 pm to viceman
quote:s&p takes into account level of competition and garbage time stats...
Mizzou had some stat padding games, but fell apart in conference play.
Posted on 11/10/16 at 5:09 pm to joeyb147
quote:
s&p takes into account level of competition and garbage time stats...
Yep. There are always the random teams that are really explosive or really efficient but not both and seem to game the system. I don't know what Missouri's is, but they are clearly overrated.
Posted on 11/10/16 at 5:15 pm to Triple Daves
quote:
South Carolina @ Florida
Florida 31-11
Florida 87.5% win chance
Teams projected to have an 85-89% chance of winning are 49-6 (89%) with an average scoring margin of +21.
Posted on 11/10/16 at 6:27 pm to Triple Daves
Why was florida, a team that's looked way worse than A&M, given a higher chance of winning than A&M vs miss state, a team much worse than arkansas?
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