re: Petrino Prediction

I haven't forgotten you guys. I've had company all weekend and there are still holes in what I know.

Here is a stab at what I’ve gathered is going on with the Razorback Foundation (RF). My sources are confidential; the story is not complete and is far from fully developing. I will not provide links or names. Some or all could be inaccurate, I’m still trying to verify/confirm on my own with other sources. Take it for what it is worth, internet posting.

First understand the RF has been telling Long that they are out of money . . . who really believes this (?), but Long has hired a fundraiser for the athletic department, separate from the Foundation. There is some smoke there and it is not good when the RF and the AD are at odds or have the appearance of so. Here are the talking points.

1. The characterization of the end of Nutt as CentArk vs NWA is somewhat accurate. CentArk is what is pushing back via the Foundation, I think. (It is bigger than the GSD but that is a key component, Nutt was another).
2. Now, its 3 factions - CentArk, old NWA and new NWA (strong Malzahn ties here).
3. All factions have veto power, or did post-Nutt. Petrino was basically outside that - Long acted, the RF blinked and said okay. The RF said "no" to at least 2 other coaches. "All factions have veto power" = all control substantial resources and don't back down from the others. There is no "coalition" right now.
4. Lindsey was a Nutt apologist, of course, but Nutt's real power wasn't in NWA, it was in the CentArk "old money".
5. The NWA group said Nutt deserved to be ousted because he had proven he couldn't win at the highest level, and the 2-year pass should never happen that deep in a coaching career. It had nothing to do with his personal life, Mustain, etc.
6. The new coalition emerging is that affiliated, loosely, through a church and private school. It’s a hyper-conservative group from a spiritual and political perspective.
7. The new coalition was not going to wait for Nutt to retire, move on, or go 3-9 and thus deserve firing. They leveraged recruiting NWA against him and Nutt was done.
8. Gus is a rather innocent onlooker in this. He did not plot to overthrow Nutt. He really was a bit naive, in fact. Friends of friends (take it for what it was worth) know the Malzahn's and there was never a hint that they knew what was going on to get Gus to UA.
9. Pinnacle Prep (WW’s) involvement is simply about his "idolatry" for Gus (struggled to find the right word, sorry). He is a part of the "new coalition" that will not stop until Gus is installed as HC at UA.
10. Now we delve within the new NWA coalition. There was a faction that wanted Nutt out but accepted Malzahn as a reasonable step to trying to fix it without firing Nutt. Then, there is the faction that wanted to overthrow the BAC, installing Gus as HC and someone from their coalition as AD. Think of rainbows.
11. Frank was revered by many but the new coalition tried to leverage Nutt vs Frank. Nutt fought it and won, getting Broyles out the door. Unexpected bonus for the new coalition, who needed Broyles out to get their own AD. The unexpected thing was that there was not a big pushback towards Nutt - those who didn't like him already didn't change their mind; those that supported him were largely unphased by his "tossing under the bus" of one Frank Broyles.

Ok. Where are we now?
1. CentArk is in trouble - if they don't step up and support Long he'll pull the 2 RRS games citing the need for revenue (UA loses about $3MM annually by hosting 2 games in LR). I am wholly NWA but support the games in the Rock for recruiting purposes, which is a complete 180 from about a year ago.
2. Long might have old NWA’s support. I don't know where the $$ for Pel's buyout was coming from. BTW, Pel may have saved his job and helped Long out a lot.
3. The new folks are waiting to oust Petrino and Long. This is why PP is working so hard to funnel kids to Gus - makes Gus look good and hurts Petrino. Plus, the locals want to see those kids at UA, so their money might be pulled.
4. There is not a base of support for Long in the Foundation - his support is more BOT. The BOT will not override the Foundation, at least not much. Long is on his own, and if he can't work the RF a bit the BOT will interpret that as a bad sign.
5. We may see some posturing by an Arkansas Grad to replace Long. That was much more likely when Pel was losing b/c Long had to keep Pel (Foundation was not working with him to buy out Pel, a new coach and pay for a new coach, Long was having to work with individual donors or coalitions of donors). I’m curious to see if they go public now.

I think it can be resolved - Gus has to find a HC position that is good enough to not be in a position to leave for UA when it opens. If basketball tanks, Long has a home run hire waiting as Pel's replacement - Mike Anderson, Scott Drew...maybe others. Not sure the political fallout of Anderson coming to UA.

Petrino winning BIG and Pel turning the basketball team around might make the Gus undercurrent go away.

That’s what I know as of now.

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Kirby Smart to Georgia, When the job opens ups. IMO

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Likely. Although Richt has more left in him than we probably give him credit for, and some UGa fans say they would never hire a first time head coach. I could see Kirby getting a Big East or ACC job in the next couple years.

there is a lot of truth in that statement but the people that are Spring-dale and Shiloh Christan can keep on dreaming -- Gussy Malazhan will not be our coach. Guess that is why he keeps turning down jobs waiting on ours. Petrino is a better all around coach but he feels squeezed in anyway he will BOLT. They just need to stop lusting over GUS cause he cheated as a High School coach and I doubt he has changed much.

Springdale doesnt have the juice anymore. The Shiloh crowd has limited powers. The Stephens media debacle has soured a lot of people.
Lindsey wasnt an apologist, but was someone who did not think that you should get rid of someone because he didnt want a coach on staff who wasnt wanted by the HC.

The only bitch move made was the power play made by Nutt when J Franks wife was ill and he and Sexton pulled the Nebraska thing off, but J Frank should have never allowed that situation anyway.

The CentArk, NWA fued goes back forever and will always be there no matter what, but to be honest you have to play in War Memorial atleast 1 time a year to keep that money, because it also helps the Southern part of state stay out of the fight.