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re: Bill Connelly genius of Football Outsiders gives Alabama 40.2% win probability
Posted on 10/1/14 at 1:07 pm to LandofDixie
Posted on 10/1/14 at 1:07 pm to LandofDixie
Look down the article and his system spits out that Alabama is roughly a 68% win probability against Auburn.
Bama vs.
Ole Miss - 40%
Arkansas - 60%
Texas AM - 71%
Tennessee- 78%
LSU - 44%
State - 68%
Auburn - 68%
Seems to be giving way too much credence to home vs away. Alabama has an 8% better chance to beat Auburn and 11% more against A&M than it does Arkansas?
GTFO
Bama vs.
Ole Miss - 40%
Arkansas - 60%
Texas AM - 71%
Tennessee- 78%
LSU - 44%
State - 68%
Auburn - 68%
Seems to be giving way too much credence to home vs away. Alabama has an 8% better chance to beat Auburn and 11% more against A&M than it does Arkansas?
GTFO
This post was edited on 10/1/14 at 1:11 pm
1
Posted on 10/1/14 at 1:16 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Connelly does great work and the F+ system is fantastic, but I think it is a much better tool to use to look back at season than to assess during the season.
I mean, until week 6 or so they are still using assumptions from the preseason which is totally worthless.
ESPN's FPI does the same type of thing and has the same sort of head scratching Home-Away splits.
Bama vs
@ Ole Miss - 54%
@ Arkansas - 66%
Texas A&M - 61%
@ Tennessee - 79%
@ LSU - 58%
vs MSU - 75%
vs Auburn - 62%
I'm sorry, but if your system tells me that Alabama has roughly the same % change to win at home against Auburn and A&M than on a road trip to Arkansas then I have serious issues with your system.
I mean, until week 6 or so they are still using assumptions from the preseason which is totally worthless.
ESPN's FPI does the same type of thing and has the same sort of head scratching Home-Away splits.
Bama vs
@ Ole Miss - 54%
@ Arkansas - 66%
Texas A&M - 61%
@ Tennessee - 79%
@ LSU - 58%
vs MSU - 75%
vs Auburn - 62%
I'm sorry, but if your system tells me that Alabama has roughly the same % change to win at home against Auburn and A&M than on a road trip to Arkansas then I have serious issues with your system.
This post was edited on 10/1/14 at 1:17 pm
Posted on 10/1/14 at 1:25 pm to Prominentwon
quote:
If it were the other way around, BAMA fans would be claiming that this formula this guy has come with as scientific fact.
Wrong. If it were the other way around, Tide fans would be complaining that his percentages for a Bama win were too low!
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