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Posted on 11/21/11 at 2:29 am to arwicklu
quote:
then you must think there was a conspiracy in the opinion polls in 2007... because there were major readjustments in the last opinion polls when some highly ranked teams fell
I have no problems with changes due to losses. He's suggesting voters will just rig it if nobody loses.
somebody in teh top 3 is losing this week
how the lsu/arky, bama/auburn, and ou/ok state games play out will inevitably change votes
Posted on 11/21/11 at 2:30 am to bmy
No. Nobody seems confused about who #2 is.
Well, except y'all.
#2 wasn't nearly as clear in 2007.
Well, except y'all.
#2 wasn't nearly as clear in 2007.
Posted on 11/21/11 at 2:32 am to bmy
quote:
so it was the formulas fault? last i checked the voters are data that the formula uses. the voters were irresponsible or had an agenda -- not all of them -- but enough. just like a nightmare scenariio for this year.
Reverse engineering the answer defeats the purpose of the BCS. They should just remove the computers if they're going to force people to lie and mis-rank teams.
You think the voters should have voted OU behind multiple 2 loss teams to ensure they didn't make the championship game. That shows a lack of ethics. Voters put them where they were supposed to. It's their job to rank them accurately. They did the right things then and they'll do it now.
Based on your logic anyone who thinks OSU is overrated in the computers should kill them in the human polls. Do you think this will happen as well or is every voter just anti Bama and anti rematch?
Posted on 11/21/11 at 2:35 am to bmy
quote:
if 26% of the voters think that ok st is #2, it keeps alabama out. any voter who wants a rematch has the responsibility to drop OkSt to #4 or further.
No one has to "drop" Oklahoma St because they're already way down most ballots.
Basically 1 in 4 voters has to jump Oklahoma St all the way to #2 AND ALSO nearly all of the voters that currently have Stanford, Houston etc above them have to at least move Oklahoma St up to #3
I don't really see that the first part is impossible; it's the second part that seems far fetched. Oklahoma St needs at least a Stanford loss.
Posted on 11/21/11 at 2:40 am to Kingpin
quote:
No. Nobody seems confused about who #2 is.
are you aware that Ok State is still the #2 in the computers?
LINK
certainly alabama is highly ranked in the human opinion polls but the way this thing works Ok State just has to win enough votes to pull a little closer in the human opinion polls to put a serious scare into Alabama
Ok State's computer score will obviously rise even further with a win (if they lose to OU they are done IMO) and I have a hard time seeing how Bama's computer score could rise after this week
If lsu beats arky then arky will drop out of the discussion and Ok State will make up a significant amount of the ground they need in the human opinion polls
I'm not really arguing about who I want to face at this point. I wanted LSU to beat another undefeated team in teh BCS NCG but that chance looks to be gone (Houston? No thanks)
Posted on 11/21/11 at 2:42 am to wm72
quote:
Basically 1 in 4 voters has to jump Oklahoma St all the way to #2 AND ALSO nearly all of the voters that currently have Stanford, Houston etc above them have to at least move Oklahoma St up to #3
Oklahoma St will be #3 by default if LSU beats Arkansas. That's what I'm getting at. In that situation, a vote for Oklahoma St at #3 is in favor of a rematch. A vote for Oklahoma St at #2 is not in favor of a rematch. That's a logical thought process that voters are aware of. See: 2006
What alot of Alabama fans don't seem to get.. is that by moving up to #3 by default, they will get a ton of points. If they're #3 going into the OU game and win it, they're likely to be a unanimous #3 or better in all polls. That's when the chaos begins.
quote:
I don't really see that the first part is impossible; it's the second part that seems far fetched. Oklahoma St needs at least a Stanford loss.
Stanford or VT will do just fine for them. If they can scrape by OU.. which I obviously doubt
This post was edited on 11/21/11 at 2:44 am
Posted on 11/21/11 at 2:44 am to molsusports
Yes, I'm aware of what the computers think.
That has nothing to do with my statement.
Obviously, I was saying no human beings are confused about who the #2 team is.
As evidenced by nearly every voter in both polls voting us #2.
Which makes the situation very different from 2007, when it was all a clusterfrick.
That's what I was saying.
That has nothing to do with my statement.
Obviously, I was saying no human beings are confused about who the #2 team is.
As evidenced by nearly every voter in both polls voting us #2.
Which makes the situation very different from 2007, when it was all a clusterfrick.
That's what I was saying.
This post was edited on 11/21/11 at 2:45 am
Posted on 11/21/11 at 2:44 am to bmy
quote:
Oklahoma St will be #3 by default if LSU beats Arkansas. That's what I'm getting at. In that situation, a vote for Oklahoma St at #3 is in favor of a rematch. A vote for Oklahoma St at #2 is not in favor of a rematch.
Keep hopin'
Posted on 11/21/11 at 2:48 am to Kingpin
quote:
As evidenced by nearly every voter in both polls voting us #2.
Which makes the situation very different from 2007, when it was all a clusterfrick.
That's what I was saying.
You know there are about 15 major games left with BCS implications right? Until Oklahoma St loses, it's a clusterfrick. Not as bad as 2007, but it's close.
This post was edited on 11/21/11 at 2:49 am
Posted on 11/21/11 at 2:49 am to bmy
quote:
If they can scrape by OU.. which I obviously doubt
Yeah, I agree. that's a 50/50 game at best for Oklahoma St. But that's no reason to spoil a lot of BCS conjecture!
I guess the only thing we see differently is simply that I don't think Oklahoma St simply becomes the default #3 the way you do.
I think there will be just as many voters that keep them behind some other 1 loss teams like Stanford as there will be anti-rematch #2 voters for much of the same reasons the poster above mentions about voting "ethics"
Posted on 11/21/11 at 2:50 am to wm72
quote:
I guess the only thing we see differently is simply that I don't think Oklahoma St simply becomes the default #3 the way you do.
I think there will be just as many voters that keep them behind some other 1 loss teams like Stanford as there will be anti-rematch #2 voters for much of the same reasons the poster above mentions about voting "ethics"
It doesn't matter if they stay behind Stanford or Virginia Tech. They're already ahead of them. If their human votes don't change hardly at all they will still be #3 because of a massive lead in the computers. If they don't take #3 this week while they are idle, they surely would with a win over OU (and they'd get more than just #3, they'd cut into some 2nd place votes).
Arkansas could actually really hurt Alabamas chances too. They could end up acting as a wedge between Oklahoma St at #3, Arkansas #4, and everyone else behind them.
This post was edited on 11/21/11 at 2:52 am
Posted on 11/21/11 at 2:51 am to bmy
Yes, I think I heard about that somewhere.
And none of those will cause any actual human beings to actually believe that Alabama isn't really the #2 team.
Unlike in 2007 when it was a clusterfrick and #2 wasn't a clear issue.
And none of those will cause any actual human beings to actually believe that Alabama isn't really the #2 team.
Unlike in 2007 when it was a clusterfrick and #2 wasn't a clear issue.
This post was edited on 11/21/11 at 2:52 am
Posted on 11/21/11 at 2:51 am to Kingpin
quote:
Yes, I'm aware of what the computers think.
That has nothing to do with my statement.
Obviously, I was saying no human beings are confused about who the #2 team is.
Well, then you are wrong - and you are almost always going to be wrong whenever you include a sentence fragment that reads "... no human beings are confused..." because people are always confused
Further, there are a lot of football people who put a disproportionate amount of emphasis on what the computers say. Certainly this includes the makers of the programs who have been doing this for years are well respected people who believe in the system they are using
Posted on 11/21/11 at 2:52 am to Kingpin
quote:
Yes, I think I heard about that somewhere.
And none of those will cause any actual human beings to actually believe that Alabama isn't really the #2 team.
I'm sure Chip Kelly will vote for an LSU-Alabama rematch game
You're off-the-wall delusional if you think that in the final poll (if Oklahoma St wins out) that Alabama will get 95% of 2nd place votes.This post was edited on 11/21/11 at 2:53 am
Posted on 11/21/11 at 2:52 am to molsusports
Yes. Clearly they are confused. Which is why nearly every human being that counts voted us #2.
Posted on 11/21/11 at 2:53 am to Kingpin
quote:
Yes. Clearly they are confused. Which is why nearly every human being that counts voted us #2.
*this week
If the BCS didn't have 15 games to go that are actually important, it would be a done deal. It's more likely that Alabama is in a rematch than it is that Oklahoma St is in the game. I've made that very clear.
A hypothetical scenario involving the ACC sweeping the SEC this week, Tulsa beating Houston, and two of Oregon/Penn St/Stanford losing could put Alabama at #4 in the computers (behind Kansas State), which would destroy their BCS average and allow Oklahoma St to get in with almost 100% of the #3 votes.
I know you guys don't like math, but it is what it is. The odds it plays out on the field are about the same as the odds of last weekend happening. Slim to none.
^ Throw in a Texas A&M loss to Texas too.
This post was edited on 11/21/11 at 2:58 am
Posted on 11/21/11 at 2:58 am to bmy
quote:
Yes. Clearly they are confused. Which is why nearly every human being that counts voted us #2.
*this week
This thread is kinda amazing really
If anything the OP was not bold enough. He argued Ok State needed to beat OU this week to be the computer #2 next weekend.
That obviously sold Ok State well short when they lost this weekend and only fell from being tied with LSU to being #2 THIS WEEK.
The computers love the shite out of the Big 12 this year because of their ooc performances. Any SEC team hoping to make the BCS NCG with a loss this year will have their hopes affected not only by the games they are playing (SEC CCG, Arky/LSU, Bama/Auburn) but probably also the SEC/ACC matchups this weekend (FSU/FLorida, Clemson/USC, Wake/Vandy, UGA/Ga Tech)
Posted on 11/21/11 at 3:01 am to bmy
quote:
It doesn't matter if they stay behind Stanford or Virginia Tech.
That's the only thing that does matter. Jumping to #3 in almost EVERY voter poll and then #2 in 25% of them.
I'm not talking about computers at all. Oklahoma St will be #2 in ALL of them if they win out.
But it won't matter if, say, even 1 in 10 voters still has them at #4 or worse behind a Stanford or VT or Houston on the ballots even if they manage to get the 25% of #2 votes you mention.
They need Stanford to lose to get their potential #3 human votes. They won't get all of them just by beating Oklahoma.
Posted on 11/21/11 at 3:03 am to wm72
quote:
They need Stanford to lose to get their potential #3 human votes. They won't get all of them just by beating Oklahoma.
Well for example.. a close loss to LSU by Arkansas will act as a wedge between Oklahoma St and the other 1-loss teams. That's one way to avoid the votes from being stolen without a Stanford/VT loss.
It's very likely that VT drops a future game IMO, they're fairly weak from what I have seen. It's going to be interesting, especially if Stanford loses.
This post was edited on 11/21/11 at 3:04 am
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