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re: An outside perspective on the 2pt conversion
Posted on 9/21/26 at 7:29 pm to Swagga
Posted on 9/21/26 at 7:29 pm to Swagga
quote:
LSU wasn’t set up to win in OT with no Green and leavitt struggling. We for sure would have gone for 2 if we scored and tried to win it in regulation. Pete knows kiffin and that likely played into it.
It doesn't matter if Kiffin would have gone for 2. You still go for 1.
If Kiffin wants to take the lower % call for a win, you let him.
Instead, Golding went for the lower % call and left the higher % call to Kiffin if it hadn't worked. At best, it forced Kiffin into the lower % call, and if he couldn't have made it then, he couldn't have made it if Golding had went for 1.
If you kick the FG and the other team goes for 2, you have a 59% chance of winning the game. That also means LSU would have had a 41% chance of winning by trying for 2 pts.
If you both kick the FG, it's 50/50.
I don't go too hard on analytic type stats, so there is something to be said about individual performance. If you have a really good 2PT team etc, the odds go higher in your favor. But if LSU isn't an OT team, they aren't a 2 PT team to start with. So that is not going to increase the chances for LSU, and could even possibly decrease the odds if they are below average.
And if it's based on Kiffin, then what really happened was Kiffin made Golding do the low % thing without any risk to himself.
It didn't matter anyway. I just enjoy the game theory.
This post was edited on 9/21/26 at 7:31 pm
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Posted on 9/21/26 at 7:36 pm to Quicksilver
Even if it backfires and LSU scores and takes lead instead of throwing a pick, you've got 45 seconds with Chambliss to get into FG range for a guy who can hit from 60.
How would you know how long it would take LSU to go down the field beforehand and that you’d have 45 seconds?
How would you know how long it would take LSU to go down the field beforehand and that you’d have 45 seconds?
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