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A&M - Miami Monte Carlo Sim
Posted on 12/8/25 at 11:18 pm
Posted on 12/8/25 at 11:18 pm
No. 10 Miami Hurricanes @ No. 7 Texas A&M Aggies
Kyle Field – December 20, 2025 Final parameters (calibrated to 2025 SP+, FPI, PFF, and betting markets) Miami expected points: 26.42
Texas A&M expected points: 30.88
Standard deviation per team: 8.65
Home-field advantage: +4.46 baked into A&M mean
Distribution: Normal ? rounded ? non-negative
Ties resolved via CFP overtime (50.3% A&M / 49.7% Miami in OT)
1,000,000-Run ResultsOutcome
Count
Percentage
Texas A&M wins in regulation
626,764
62.68%
Miami wins in regulation
342,755
34.28%
Exact tie after regulation
30,481
3.05%
A&M wins in overtime
15,332
50.30% of ties
Miami wins in overtime
15,149
49.70% of ties
Final win probability (including OT)
Texas A&M advances: 642,096 / 1,000,000 ? 64.21%
Miami advances: 357,904 / 1,000,000 ? 35.79%Most Frequent Exact ScoresScore
Occurrences
Texas A&M 32 – Miami 26
2,195
Texas A&M 31 – Miami 25
2,173
Texas A&M 31 – Miami 26
2,127
Texas A&M 31 – Miami 27
2,120
Texas A&M 32 – Miami 27
2,120
Texas A&M 31 – Miami 28
2,110
Spread & Total (consensus line: A&M –4.5, O/U 51.5)Bet
Hits
Percentage
A&M –4.5 covers
498,213
49.82%
Miami +4.5 covers
501,787
50.18%
Over 51.5
682,002
68.20%
Under 51.5
317,998
31.80%
Margin of Victory Distribution (A&M perspective, regulation wins)Margin
Frequency
A&M by 1–3
96,232
A&M by 4–7
129,069
A&M by 8–14
195,628
A&M by 15–21
124,189
A&M by 22+
81,646
Miami wins
357,904
Bottom line after 1,000,000 simulated universes
Texas A&M is a solid favorite (64.2% to advance), with the median outcome around Texas A&M 31, Miami 26. Miami covers the spread in half the sims, but the Aggies' home edge, DL depth, and Reed's playmaking tip the scales in most scenarios. The over hits frequently due to both teams' explosiveness.
Kyle Field – December 20, 2025 Final parameters (calibrated to 2025 SP+, FPI, PFF, and betting markets) Miami expected points: 26.42
Texas A&M expected points: 30.88
Standard deviation per team: 8.65
Home-field advantage: +4.46 baked into A&M mean
Distribution: Normal ? rounded ? non-negative
Ties resolved via CFP overtime (50.3% A&M / 49.7% Miami in OT)
1,000,000-Run ResultsOutcome
Count
Percentage
Texas A&M wins in regulation
626,764
62.68%
Miami wins in regulation
342,755
34.28%
Exact tie after regulation
30,481
3.05%
A&M wins in overtime
15,332
50.30% of ties
Miami wins in overtime
15,149
49.70% of ties
Final win probability (including OT)
Texas A&M advances: 642,096 / 1,000,000 ? 64.21%
Miami advances: 357,904 / 1,000,000 ? 35.79%Most Frequent Exact ScoresScore
Occurrences
Texas A&M 32 – Miami 26
2,195
Texas A&M 31 – Miami 25
2,173
Texas A&M 31 – Miami 26
2,127
Texas A&M 31 – Miami 27
2,120
Texas A&M 32 – Miami 27
2,120
Texas A&M 31 – Miami 28
2,110
Spread & Total (consensus line: A&M –4.5, O/U 51.5)Bet
Hits
Percentage
A&M –4.5 covers
498,213
49.82%
Miami +4.5 covers
501,787
50.18%
Over 51.5
682,002
68.20%
Under 51.5
317,998
31.80%
Margin of Victory Distribution (A&M perspective, regulation wins)Margin
Frequency
A&M by 1–3
96,232
A&M by 4–7
129,069
A&M by 8–14
195,628
A&M by 15–21
124,189
A&M by 22+
81,646
Miami wins
357,904
Bottom line after 1,000,000 simulated universes
Texas A&M is a solid favorite (64.2% to advance), with the median outcome around Texas A&M 31, Miami 26. Miami covers the spread in half the sims, but the Aggies' home edge, DL depth, and Reed's playmaking tip the scales in most scenarios. The over hits frequently due to both teams' explosiveness.
3
Posted on 12/8/25 at 11:19 pm to Richleau
Can you do Bama vs Ou?
Posted on 12/8/25 at 11:19 pm to Richleau
Cliffs for all of us plebs.
Congrats for not opting out of your post season bowl game.
quote:
Bottom line after 1,000,000 simulated universes
Texas A&M is a solid favorite (64.2% to advance), with the median outcome around Texas A&M 31, Miami 26. Miami covers the spread in half the sims, but the Aggies' home edge, DL depth, and Reed's playmaking tip the scales in most scenarios. The over hits frequently due to both teams' explosiveness.
Congrats for not opting out of your post season bowl game.
This post was edited on 12/8/25 at 11:22 pm
Posted on 12/8/25 at 11:20 pm to BFANLC
sure thing, but it takes a bit to tweak the rosters so they are accurate.
Posted on 12/8/25 at 11:21 pm to Richleau
I see Chatterbox got a new alter smh
Posted on 12/8/25 at 11:22 pm to Richleau
If you have time, I appreciate it. That was pretty interesting.
Posted on 12/8/25 at 11:24 pm to BFANLC
No. 9 Alabama Crimson Tide @ No. 8 Oklahoma Sooners
Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium – December 19, 2025 (8:00 p.m. ET, ESPN) Parameters (calibrated to 2025 stats, prior matchup, and betting markets) Alabama expected points: 23.0 (offense 31.2 PPG adjusted for Oklahoma's elite D at 13.9 PPG allowed
Oklahoma expected points: 21.5 (offense 26.4 PPG tempered by Alabama's stout D at 17.4 PPG allowed +1.0 home-field adjustment)
Standard deviation per team: 8.0 (reflects defensive slugfest vibe, prior 23-21 OU win
Distribution: Normal ? rounded ? non-negative
Ties resolved via CFP overtime (50.5% Alabama / 49.5% Oklahoma in OT – slight edge to road favorite)
1,000,000-Run Results Outcome
Count
Percentage
Alabama wins in regulation
535,139
53.51%
Oklahoma wins in regulation
429,873
42.99%
Exact tie after regulation
34,988
3.50%
Alabama wins in overtime
17,668
50.50% of ties
Oklahoma wins in overtime
17,320
49.50% of ties
Final win probability (including OT)
Alabama advances: 552,807 / 1,000,000 ? 55.28%
Oklahoma advances: 447,193 / 1,000,000 ? 44.72%Most Frequent Exact Scores Score
Occurrences
Alabama 24 – Oklahoma 21
2,479
Alabama 23 – Oklahoma 22
2,463
Alabama 21 – Oklahoma 20
2,461
Alabama 23 – Oklahoma 23
2,458
Alabama 25 – Oklahoma 21
2,453
Alabama 24 – Oklahoma 22
2,453
Spread & Total (consensus line: Alabama –1.5, O/U 45.5
Bet
Hits
Percentage
Alabama –1.5 covers
500,140
50.01%
Oklahoma +1.5 covers
499,860
49.99%
Over 45.5
464,522
46.45%
Under 45.5
535,478
53.55%
Margin of Victory Distribution (Alabama perspective, regulation wins)Margin
Frequency
Alabama by 1–3
105,487
Alabama by 4–7
131,790
Alabama by 8–14
173,029
Alabama by 15–21
86,600
Alabama by 22+
38,233
Oklahoma wins
447,193
Bottom line after 1,000,000 simulated universes
Alabama holds a slight edge (55.3% to advance) as the road favorite, with the median outcome around Alabama 23, Oklahoma 21—a gritty, low-scoring rematch echoing their November thriller. Oklahoma's home D (top-10 nationally keeps it close half the time, pushing the under and covering the spread often, but the Tide's balanced attack (389 YPG) tips most lines.
Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium – December 19, 2025 (8:00 p.m. ET, ESPN) Parameters (calibrated to 2025 stats, prior matchup, and betting markets) Alabama expected points: 23.0 (offense 31.2 PPG adjusted for Oklahoma's elite D at 13.9 PPG allowed
Oklahoma expected points: 21.5 (offense 26.4 PPG tempered by Alabama's stout D at 17.4 PPG allowed +1.0 home-field adjustment)
Standard deviation per team: 8.0 (reflects defensive slugfest vibe, prior 23-21 OU win
Distribution: Normal ? rounded ? non-negative
Ties resolved via CFP overtime (50.5% Alabama / 49.5% Oklahoma in OT – slight edge to road favorite)
1,000,000-Run Results Outcome
Count
Percentage
Alabama wins in regulation
535,139
53.51%
Oklahoma wins in regulation
429,873
42.99%
Exact tie after regulation
34,988
3.50%
Alabama wins in overtime
17,668
50.50% of ties
Oklahoma wins in overtime
17,320
49.50% of ties
Final win probability (including OT)
Alabama advances: 552,807 / 1,000,000 ? 55.28%
Oklahoma advances: 447,193 / 1,000,000 ? 44.72%Most Frequent Exact Scores Score
Occurrences
Alabama 24 – Oklahoma 21
2,479
Alabama 23 – Oklahoma 22
2,463
Alabama 21 – Oklahoma 20
2,461
Alabama 23 – Oklahoma 23
2,458
Alabama 25 – Oklahoma 21
2,453
Alabama 24 – Oklahoma 22
2,453
Spread & Total (consensus line: Alabama –1.5, O/U 45.5
Bet
Hits
Percentage
Alabama –1.5 covers
500,140
50.01%
Oklahoma +1.5 covers
499,860
49.99%
Over 45.5
464,522
46.45%
Under 45.5
535,478
53.55%
Margin of Victory Distribution (Alabama perspective, regulation wins)Margin
Frequency
Alabama by 1–3
105,487
Alabama by 4–7
131,790
Alabama by 8–14
173,029
Alabama by 15–21
86,600
Alabama by 22+
38,233
Oklahoma wins
447,193
Bottom line after 1,000,000 simulated universes
Alabama holds a slight edge (55.3% to advance) as the road favorite, with the median outcome around Alabama 23, Oklahoma 21—a gritty, low-scoring rematch echoing their November thriller. Oklahoma's home D (top-10 nationally keeps it close half the time, pushing the under and covering the spread often, but the Tide's balanced attack (389 YPG) tips most lines.
This post was edited on 12/8/25 at 11:26 pm
Posted on 12/8/25 at 11:26 pm to Richleau
Thank you
Posted on 12/8/25 at 11:27 pm to BFANLC
of course dude.
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