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re: Climate Change

Posted on 2/12/19 at 7:50 pm to
Posted by KSGamecock
The Woodlands, TX
Member since May 2012
22982 posts
Posted on 2/12/19 at 7:50 pm to
It’s actually more complicated than that. They want to rebuild every building in America and ban airplanes.
Posted by TT9
Global warming
Member since Sep 2008
86757 posts
Posted on 2/12/19 at 7:51 pm to
quote:

HARD EARNED


Again, I wanna see some legit climate deniers.

Tick tock.
Posted by piggilicious
Member since Jan 2011
37309 posts
Posted on 2/12/19 at 7:52 pm to
quote:

You lose by typo.


Is it though? They’re two different things, one being an island and the other an open divider of two sides.
Posted by Harry Rex Vonner
American southerner
Member since Nov 2013
43313 posts
Posted on 2/12/19 at 7:53 pm to
quote:

Man made global warming/climate change is 100% complete and utter bullshite



Posted by Arksulli
Fayetteville
Member since Aug 2014
26181 posts
Posted on 2/12/19 at 7:57 pm to
1: Yes. We have the measurements to back that up.

2: Yes. I know this will greatly offend some folks on here because this somehow became a political issue and not a science issue. Its not the sun, measurements prove that is not the culprit. We are causing the planet to heat up. There are 7.5 billion of us. We do have somewhat of an impact.

3: Pretty much what we are doing at the moment. Yeah, maybe cut back on Trump's policies a wee bit but don't go whole hog on windmills will power the country either. Increase our renewable energy generators and yes, go nuclear.

I know some folks will have an absolute screaming fit over what I said. That's fine.

If you see Climate Change as a political question and not a scientific fact there is very little I can do to change your mind.

Much like I can show the horrific effect on children who aren't vaccinated and get Measles and not change Anti-Vaxxers minds. Once you buy into a belief past a certain level it is damn near impossible to change your mind.
Posted by KSGamecock
The Woodlands, TX
Member since May 2012
22982 posts
Posted on 2/12/19 at 8:01 pm to
I don’t deny that climate change exists, I just don’t think we have nearly as much influence on it as many would like us to believe and I think those pushing it are doing so for political and geopolitical reasons...like how China loves to push it for example. It gives the Chinese a way to handicap rivals and it gives American liberals a reason to redistribute wealth.

I invest very little credence in the whole “scientific consensus” meme. Scientists are hardly immune from financial, political, and cultural influences. They recieve their funding from governments, corporations, and heavily politicized think tanks and are completely beholden to them. It’s in their interests to find “problems” and call for change, without it they wouldn’t be relevant. Their work also isn’t being peer reviewed like it used to and many previously respected journals are basically publishing bunk out in to the ether. This is the same community that told us peak oil would be reached years ago or that the planet was going to ice over back in the 70s.
Posted by SECdragonmaster
Order of the Dragons
Member since Dec 2013
17189 posts
Posted on 2/12/19 at 8:06 pm to
quote:

1. Sure. And it’s cyclical. And we only have reliable data that covers about 75 years when the earth is between 6,000 and 4.5 billion years old.

2. No and no.

3. We probably can’t do anything about it. To think we can is ultimate hubris.


Nothing but facts up in this post.
Posted by ExtraSpecial
Music City
Member since Dec 2018
2128 posts
Posted on 2/12/19 at 8:56 pm to
quote:

Is it real?


Obviously

quote:

 If it is real do you think humans are causing it and/or exacerbating it? 


Humans do play a role, but I lean more on the "exacerbating" side. Carbon emissions compounded with natural fluctuations in climate absolutely have an effect. It is more Earth than man.

We just got out of the Little Ice Age two centuries ago. Before that was the Medieval Warm Period (in Europe). We have proven that the Earth goes through cycles of warming and cooling through geology and tree rings. And that was well before humans engaged in heavy industry.

Tl;dr: Humans affect climate a little bit.

quote:

What, if anything, can/should we do about it?



Little to nothing we can do to slow warming. Best thing for us to do is to be more conservative with resource usage as our population continues to grow. Nothing wrong with greener farming practices and renewable fuel sources.
Posted by pvilleguru
Member since Jun 2009
60453 posts
Posted on 2/12/19 at 9:06 pm to
quote:

1. Is it real?
Yes
quote:

2. If it is real do you think humans are causing it?
No
quote:

exacerbating it?
Yes
quote:

3. What, if anything, can/should we do about it?

No idea, but we need to do something.
Posted by Tw1st3d
Member since Jul 2017
887 posts
Posted on 2/12/19 at 9:24 pm to
quote:

1. Is it real?
Absolutely - the climate changes constantly and over any given frame of time it changes toward warmer or toward cooler

2. If it is real do you think humans are causing it and/or exacerbating it?
Humans have some impact but very little

3. What, if anything, can/should we do about it?
Nothing we can do about it


Water Vapor accounts for 95% of all greenhouse gases
Carbon Dioxide accounts for 3.6% of all greenhouse gases
All other greenhouse gases amount to 1.4% combined

Humans and human activities account for 3.225% of all carbon dioxide production or 0.12% of ALL impact on total greenhouse gases

Humans and human activities account for roughly 55% of all other major format of greenhouse gases but lets say 65% just to be sure. That equates to 0.01% of the total greenhouse gases.

Totaling the massive human influence on greenhouse gases the comes out to 0.13% of the total greenhouse gases. 99.87% of the total greenhouse gases are natural (non-human) influenced.

So if we eliminate all human beings and human activity the net impact on climate change would be almost nothing.

All of the "scientist" that agree that humans have a major impact on Anthropogenic Global Warming are absolutely correct as Anthropogenic means human caused. But it is still only 0.13% of the total.
This post was edited on 2/12/19 at 9:31 pm
Posted by gthog61
Irving, TX
Member since Nov 2009
71001 posts
Posted on 2/12/19 at 9:34 pm to
quote:

What about all of the fossil fuel pollution and two centuries of industrialization? Surely that’s increased the rate of warming. There is a lot we could do to go green and limit it.



while China and India build hundreds more coal plants and do not have to do a God damned thing about it

Jesus fricking Christ
Posted by RockyMtnTigerWDE
War Damn Eagle Dad!
Member since Oct 2010
107226 posts
Posted on 2/13/19 at 1:13 am to
1. Climate change has always been

2. No and no

3. There is nothing man can do to change the laws of nature

Those who say man can change it are either uninformed or using it to gain wealth and power.
Posted by RockyMtnTigerWDE
War Damn Eagle Dad!
Member since Oct 2010
107226 posts
Posted on 2/13/19 at 1:17 am to
quote:

All of the world's scientists agree, but you guy's have???



The retarded sheep of the left
Posted by Arksulli
Fayetteville
Member since Aug 2014
26181 posts
Posted on 2/13/19 at 1:01 pm to
quote:

The retarded sheep of the left


And here we come to the crux of the problem.

Its become a political rather then scientific issue.

There is nothing anyone can say to convince someone who believes this. Its now a matter of faith rather then science.

People would rather believe there is an international conspiracy of hundreds of thousands of scientists then entertain the notion they are wrong.

Climate change is for the Right what Anti-GMO and Anti-Vaccination is for the left. You have dug in so deep you can't back away from your position.

Both groups would rather watch the world burn then admit they were wrong.
Posted by Tw1st3d
Member since Jul 2017
887 posts
Posted on 2/13/19 at 4:09 pm to
quote:

All of the world's scientists agree, but you guy's have??? Rush Limbaugh and Fox news saying it isn't so?

Yeah, I'll side with the educated on the subject.


All? The number claimed is 97% consensus but is it really?
-
How about some facts - no opinions and no name calling?
The 97% consensus number comes from 4 primary studies all using the same 12,000 abstract paper data source.
-
2004 study by Naomi Oreskes - only used 928 of those paper but claimed 97% consensus.
-
2009 study by Doran & Zimmering used only 79 response from the 3146 given out for the authors of the 12,000 abstracts. Still claimed 97% consensus.
-
2010 study by William Anderegg only used 200 of the 1372 responses he received from the authors of the 12,000 abstracts. Still claimed 97% consensus.
-
2013 study by John Cook largest study but only used his interpretation of the 12,000 abstracts. Claimed 97% consensus.
-
12,000 abstracts used for all of the above studies as broken down by independent audit firm.
64 - Explicitly Endorsed AGW with 50%+ human causality
922 - Explicitly endorsed AGW but gave no human causality %
2910 - Implicitly endorsed (by Cooks interpretation) but gave no human causality % (a large number of those scientist said his interpretation of their abstracts was not correct)
7970 - took no position of causality but Cook included them in his 97%
54 - Implicitly rejected AGW
15 - Explicitly rejected AGW
9 - Explicitly rejected AGW as far less than 50% causality.
-
Any way you look at it the real consensus number of those 12,000 abstracts is at best 32% (3,896/12,000) and more correctly stated at 8% (986/12,000). But 8% gets you far less attention than does claiming 97%.

Where does my information come from?
Primarily:
-
Judith Curry PhD - Chair of School of Earth & Atmospheric Sciences (retired) - Georgia Institute of Technology
-
Roy Spencer PhD - Meteorologist & Research Scientist - University of Alabama (Huntsville, AL) / Principle Research Scientist - NASA Earth System Science Center / Sr Scientist for Climate Studies - NASA Marshall Space Flight Center
Posted by Arksulli
Fayetteville
Member since Aug 2014
26181 posts
Posted on 2/13/19 at 6:06 pm to
You are going with the beliefs of one scientist who has strongly gone on record saying she believes that humans are directly causing global warming. She just disagrees as to whether they are the primary cause.

Your other source is a gentlemen who spends his time arguing for Intelligent Design.

Your real champion, who both of those are using for their argument, is a Professor of Economics named Richard Tol. Yes. Economics.

Tol, by all accounts, really has a bug in his butt about "scientific consensus". He doesn't like it. He doesn't tolerate it. It offends him.

Despite not being, it should be noted, a trained scientist. Tol is an expert on economics of energy.

Tol has also said, for the record, that there is an overwhelming scientific consensus that humans cause global warming. So, he agrees that the vast majority of scientists agree that humans are causing global warming, but he disagrees that it is a 97% consensus.

His primary belief, which often gets left out of these debates, is that its more a matter of damage to the economy then science that motivates his views on the matter.

It should be noted, for the record, polls just for scientists in this particular field show that greater then 90% of them believe global warming is not only impacted by humans but that we are probably the leading cause.

I am sorry to say you are using skewed numbers. The vast, overwhelming, majority of scientists believe that we are not only contributing to global warming but we are the leading cause of it.
Posted by TT9
Global warming
Member since Sep 2008
86757 posts
Posted on 2/13/19 at 7:18 pm to
quote:

The retarded sheep of the right
Posted by Tw1st3d
Member since Jul 2017
887 posts
Posted on 2/13/19 at 7:22 pm to
quote:

using skewed numbers


I did not skew any numbers, I simply gave the numbers from the audit. The skewing was done by the historian and the 3 others who produced "skewed" findings in their studies but did not report their skewing along with their findings.
Do I believe that humans have an impact on global warming - yes. It is impossible for them (us) not to have an impact. Small input to the greenhouse gasses by humans compound over the years. Small increases by that compounding result in nature producing even more greenhouse gasses. The greatest human impact on greenhouse gasses and their compounding effect is with CFC's and methane. Both of those stay in the atmosphere far longer than any of the other components. Human impact on CFC's is roughly 65% and that may be a low number. Human impact on methane is high but shallow earth quakes in oil/gas reservoir areas and volcanoes combined with ants/termites and plant/animal decomposition and even animal farts and digestion release significantly more than humans generate. The biggest exception to that is earth instability cause by fracking. That instability tends to focus earth quake activity in the areas that would produce larger releases of methane. So fracking is a combo impact from both human and nature - nature as the base and human in a compounding effect.

Even with all of that said, humans produce 13/10000 of greenhouse gasses compared with nature. Removing humans from the equation completely has so little impact on the whole it really does not matter.

Solar maximum / solar minimum cycles have the greatest impact on greenhouse gasses of any of the variables. Shall we ask the sun to stop damaging our magnetic protection fields? Shall we ask the sun's solar radiation to stop following the magnetic shield down to the poles and heating the earth's core?

The solar max/min cycles cause the increase in earth quakes and volcanic activity. If the sun would only cooperate with us, the earth would stop producing mass quantities of methane and other greenhouse gasses via volcanic eruptions and earth quake reservoir releases.

An just to be clear, I also believe in Intelligent Design. If I am wrong, no big deal. I still live my life to make the world a better place for those I love. If I am right, what will you say when you meet the Intelligent Designer? Opps, would not do you much good.
Posted by Tw1st3d
Member since Jul 2017
887 posts
Posted on 2/13/19 at 7:25 pm to
quote:

The vast, overwhelming, majority of scientists believe that we are not only contributing to global warming but we are the leading cause of it.


So 12,000 abstracts written of which less than 4,000 point to human impact being significant vs 31,000 who have signed a collective release stating humans are not a major factor in your view is an overwhelming majority?

quote:

Your real champion, who both of those are using for their argument, is a Professor of Economics named Richard Tol


Tol was and is not my champion of anything. I gave hard numbers of the breakdown on the 12,000 abstracts. That breakdown simply shows where the 4 studies that generated the 97% consensus was a total fraud.

This post was edited on 2/13/19 at 7:30 pm
Posted by Maytheporkbewithyou
Member since Aug 2016
13539 posts
Posted on 2/13/19 at 7:44 pm to
quote:

Climate Change


1) Yes

2) No

3) Nothing. Mother Nature stacked, mankind fricked.

So, I read stories that say that people are causing climate change. Cow farts are causing climate change from the methane content. However the same scientists claim that the months long eruption of Kilauea last year didn't have any impact on the environment. Not the CO2 levels or the methane release from lava.

Also there are too many conflicting reports on the ice levels of the north and south pole. Can't believe anything you read. Hell, some scientists have been caught "adjusting" their findings to make their case.

I'll just happily go on believing that man has little impact on the climate.
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