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That night I had a dream. Skip to 3nd post if TL;DR - Should UK stop playing UL?

Posted on 10/27/13 at 11:06 am
Posted by Cheese Grits
Wherever I lay my hat is my home
Member since Apr 2012
60706 posts
Posted on 10/27/13 at 11:06 am
Part I - Intro and Data

That night, I had a dream. I drifted off thinking about happiness, birth and new life, But now I was haunted by a vision of... He was horrible. The lone biker of apocalypse. A man with all the powers of Hell at his command. He could turn turn the day into night and lay to waste everything in his path. He was especially hard on little things-the helpless and the gentle creatures. He left a scorched earth in his wake befouling even the sweet desert breeze that whipped across his brow. I didn't know where he came from or why. I didn't know if he was dream or vision. But I feared that I myself had unleashed him. - Dream sequence from Raising Arizona

The thread on the Rant about where will football be in 5 years got me thinking of a bigger / longer term picture. We all know the old UK rivalry with IU in football, basketball, and other sports. Rupp would not play UL to not let another state school get a foothold on the state of KY. His iron will followed into the football arena and playing a border state meant recruiting outside the state and exposure to spread the Big Blue brand into southern Ohio and southern Indiana. Here is the UK vs UL games by era :

Pre Rupp
Football : 6 games from 1912 - 1924 and UK went 6-0
Basketball : 9 games from 1913 - 1922 and UK went 7-2

During Rupp : 1930 - 1972
Football : 0 games from 1930 - 1972
Basketball : 3 games from 1930 - 1972 and UK went 2-1
(1 was olympic trials in 1948, and the other 2 were NCAA games in the 50's)

Post Rupp
Football : 20 games from 1994 - 2013 with 8 wins and 12 losses
Basketball : 34 games from 1983 - 2013 and UK went 21-12-? - 2013 game has yet to be played
(of those 34 games only only 3 were NCAA games and UK went 2-1)

Here are some additional data sets...

#1 Kentucky football history and close recruiting states (10 game minimum) :
1893-2005 : 17-18-01 = Indiana 36 games : 47.22% wins : all regular season games to recruit Indianapolis and IN
1894-1996 : 22-09-03 = Cincinnati 34 games : 64.71% wins : all regular season games to recruit Cincinnati and southern OH
1912-2013 : 14-12-00 = Louisville 26 games : 53.85% wins : all regular season games to recruit Louisville and KY
1905-1983 : 11-08-01 = West Virginia 20 games : 55.00% wins : all but 1 were regular season games to recruit Pittsburgh and WV
1926-1987 : 11-06-02 = Virginia Tech 19 games : 57.89% wins : all were regular season games to recruit VA and WV
1923-1960 : 07-11-01 = Georgia Tech 19 games : 36.84% wins : all regular season games to recruit Atlanta and north GA
1910-1985 : 09-06-00 = Tulane 15 games : 60.00% wins : all were regular season games to recruit New Orleans and LA
1925-2009 : 08-05-00 = Clemson 13 games : 61.54% wins : all but 3 were regular season games to recruit SC
1910-2009 : 05-05-00 = North Carolina 10 games : 50.00% wins : all but 1 were regular season games to recruit NC

#2 Louisville conference affiliation post Adolph Rupp
1964-1974 Missouri Valley Conference
1975-1977 Division I Independent
1978-1995 Division I-A Independent
1996-2004 Conference USA
2005-2012 Big East Conference
2013-2013 American Athletic Conference
2014-20xx Atlantic Coast Conference

#3 Per capita FBS recruits by state (2008-2013) LINK
01 : LA : 1.83 : x2.44 : Louisiana State (SEC) / Tulane & La Tech (CUSA) / LA - Lafayette & LA - Monroe (Sun Belt)
02 : AL : 1.75 : x2.33 : Alabama & Auburn (SEC) / UAB (CUSA) / Troy & South Alabama (Sun Belt)
03 : FL : 1.69 : x2.25 : Florida (SEC) / Florida State & Miami (ACC) / UCF & USF (AAC) / FAU & FIU (CUSA)
04 : GA : 1.62 : x2.16 : Georgia (SEC) / Georgia Tech (ACC) / Georgia State (Sun Belt)
05 : HI : 1.54 : x2.05 : Hawaii (MWC)
06 : DC : 1.43 : x1.90 : NONE
07 : MS : 1.42 : x1.89 : Mississippi & Mississippi State (SEC) / Southern Mississippi (CUSA)
08 : TX : 1.41 : x1.88 : BU, UT, TCU & TT (B12) / A&M (SEC) / UH & SMU (AAC) / RU, NT, UTSA & UTEP (CUSA) / TSU (Sun Belt)
09 : OH : 1.31 : x1.75 : Ohio State (B1G) / Cincinnati (AAC) / Akron, BGSU, Kent State, Miami, Ohio, and Toledo (MAC)
10 : OK : 0.99 : x1.32 : Oklahoma & Oklahoma State (B12) / Tulsa (CUSA)
11 : UT : 0.90 : x1.21 : Utah (PAC) / BYU (IND) / Utah State (MWC)
12 : SC : 0.82 : x1.09 : South Carolina (SEC) / Clemson (ACC)
13 : AR : 0.78 : x1.03 : Arkansas (SEC) / Arkansas State (Sun Belt)
00 : US : 0.75 : ******** AVERAGE FOR USA ******** AVERAGE FOR USA ******** AVERAGE FOR USA ********
14 : MD : 0.69 : x0.92 : Maryland (B1G) / Navy (IND)
15 : TN : 0.66 : x0.88 : Tennessee & Vanderbilt (SEC) / Memphis (AAC) / Middle Tennessee (CUSA)
16 : VA : 0.65 : x0.86 : Virginia & Virginia Tech (ACC) / Old Dominion (IND)
17 : CA : 0.63 : x0.84 : Cal, So Cal, UCLA & Stanford (PAC) / Fresno St, San Diego St & San Jose St (MWC)
18 : NC : 0.62 : x0.83 : North Carolina, NC State, Wake Forest & Duke (ACC) / East Carolina (CUSA)
19 : MI : 0.61 : x0.81 : Michigan & Michigan State (B1G) / Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan & Western Michigan (MAC)
20 : IN : 0.56 : x0.75 : Indiana & Purdue (B1G) / Notre Dame (IND) / Ball State (MAC)
21 : KS : 0.55 : 0.74x : Kansas & Kansas State (B12)
22 : NJ : 0.53 : 0.71x : Rutgers (B1G)
23 : PA : 0.53 : x0.71 : Penn State (B1G) / Pittsburgh (ACC) / Temple (AAC)
24 : DE : 0.52 : x0.69 : NONE
25 : AZ : 0.51 : x0.69 : Arizona & Arizona State (PAC)
26 : NV : 0.50 : x0.66 : UNLV & Nevada (MWC)
27 : IL : 0.49 : x0.65 : Illinois & Northwestern (B1G) / Northern Illinois (MAC)
28 : CO : 0.47 : x0.62 : Colorado (PAC) / Colorado State & Air Force (MWC)
29 : ID : 0.41 : x0.55 : Boise State (MWC) / Idaho (IND)
30 : MO : 0.40 : x0.53 : Missouri (SEC)
31 : KY : 0.38 : x0.51 : Kentucky (SEC) / Louisville (ACC) / Western Kentucky (Sun Belt)
40 : WV : 0.18 : x0.24 : West Virginia (B12) / Marshall (CUSA) <-> listed for proximity to recruit Pittsburgh

#4 States with 1% or more CFB recruits (2008-2013) and radius from Lexington in miles
If you never used radius around a point here is a LINK
15.3% : TX : 1,000 miles = east Texas
13.7% : FL : 750 miles = north FL / 1,000 = Florida
10.1% : CA : > 1,000 miles
06.8% : GA : 250 miles = north GA / 500 miles = Georgia
06.5% : OH : 250 miles = most of OH / 500 miles = Ohio
03.6% : AL : 500 miles = most of AL / 750 miles = Alabama
03.6% : LA : 750 miles = Louisiana
02.9% : PA : 500 miles = most of PA / 750 = Pennsylvania
02.7% : IL : 250 miles = eastern IL / 500 miles = Illinois
02.6% : MI : 500 miles = mitten / 750 = Michigan
02.5% : NC : 250 miles = western NC / 500 miles = North Carolina
02.2% : VA : 250 miles = western VA / 500 miles = Virginia
02.0% : NJ : 750 miles = New Jersey
01.8% : MS : 500 miles = northern MS / 750 = Mississippi
01.8% : TN : 250 miles = east & central TN / 500 miles = Tennessee
01.7% : MD : 500 miles = Maryland
01.6% : SC : 500 miles = South Carolina
01.6% : OK : 750 = eastern OK / 1,000 = Oklahoma
01.6% : IN : 250 miles = all but northwest IN / 500 miles = Indiana
01.4% : AZ : > 1,000 miles
01.1% : UT : > 1,000 miles
01.0% : WA : > 1,000 miles
01.0% : MO : 500 miles = most of MO / 750 = Missouri
01.0% : CO : > 1,000 miles
01.0% : NY : 500 miles = western NY / 750 = New York
01.0% : AR : 500 miles = northeast AR / 750 = Arkansas
KY did not make the cut!
(states to concentrate recruiting = GA, OH, IL, NC, VA, TN, and IN)
This post was edited on 10/28/13 at 5:41 pm
Posted by Cheese Grits
Wherever I lay my hat is my home
Member since Apr 2012
60706 posts
Posted on 10/27/13 at 11:08 am to
#5 Media deals by FBS conference LINK
AAC = ABC + ESPN
ACC = ABC + ESPN / (FOX, Regional) / Raycom
B 12 = FOX / ABC + ESPN
B1G = ABC + ESPN / (BTN, FOX)
CUSA = CBS / FOX
IND = (Army, CBS) / (Navy, CBS) / (Notre Dame, NBC) / (BYU, ABC + ESPN)
MAC = ESPN
MWC = CBS / NBC / ESPN
PAC = ABC / (PTN, FOX + ESPN)
SEC = CBS / ESPN + SEC TV / (FOX, Regional)
Sun Belt = ESPN

#6 ACC Conference Divisions in 2014
(8) Atlantic .............. (7) Costal
Boston College ........ Duke
Clemson ................. Georgia Tech
Florida State ........... Miami (FL)
Louisville ................ North Carolina
NC State ................ Pittsburgh
Notre Dame ............ Virginia
Syracuse ................
Wake Forest ........... Virginia Tech

#7 Teams UK has played or could play that have more fertile recruiting than the state of KY by per capita numbers
(Think of balance of trade and states exporting recruits as UK needs more than KY can produce)
vs Tulane = 750 miles / former SEC member / NOLA recruiting / 60% win ratio
vs Georgia Tech = 380 miles / former SEC member / ATL recruiting / 37% win ratio
vs Cincinnati = 85 miles / former #2 OCC opponent / CIN and southern OH recruiting / 65% win ratio
vs Clemson = 365 miles / former #8 OCC opponent / SC recruiting / 62% win ratio
vs Maryland / 1931-1979 / 2-3-2 = 535 miles :recruiting in Maryland
vs Virginia Tech = 315 miles / former #5 OCC opponent / VA recruiting / 58% win ratio
vs Virginia / 1930-1930 / 1-1-0 = 425 miles : recruiting in Virginia
vs North Carolina = 470 miles / former #9 OCC opponent / NC recruiting / 50% win ratio
vs Duke / 1930-1933 / 0-4-0 = 470 miles : recruiting in North Carolina
vs NC State / 1909-1970 / 1-1-0 = 500 miles : recruiting in North Carolina
vs Wake Forest / UK has never played = 390 miles : recruiting in North Carolina
vs Indiana = 180 miles / former #1 OCC opponent / INDY recruiting / 47% win ratio
vs Purdue / 1895-1915 / 1-2-0 = 255 miles : recruiting between Indianapolis and Chicago
vs Rutgers / 1984-1990 / 2-2-1 = 700 miles : recruiting in New Jersey and New York
vs Pittsburgh / 2011-2011 / 0-1-0 = 370 miles : Recruiting western PA and eastern OH
vs Illinois / 1909-1913 / 1-1-0 = 315 miles : Recruiting Chicago and IL
vs Northwestern / 1928-1928 / 0-1-0 = 385 miles : Recruiting Chicago
vs West Virginia = 330 miles / former #4 OCC opponent / placed as tho PA for recruiting / 55% win ratio
Kentucky vs Louisville = 80 miles / currently behind IU and UC / UK already recruits Jefferson County / 54% win ratio

#8 Kentucky & Louisville sports (BOLD represents greater broadcast values for Tier III) and potential media demand / growth
(M) Both UK and UL : Football / Basketball / Baseball - greatest demand for TV content
(M) Both UK and UL : Soccer / Tennis / Golf - some demand for TV content
(M) Both UK and UL : Cross Country / Indoor Track & Field / Outdoor Track & Field / Swimming & Diving - limited demand
(M) UK only : Rifle - limited demand for TV content

(W) Both UK and UL : Volleyball / Basketball / Softball - greatest demand for TV content
(W) Both UK and UL : Soccer / Tennis / Golf - some demand for TV content
(W) Both UK and UL : Cross Country / Indoor Track & Field / Outdoor Track & Field / Swimming & Diving - limited demand
(W) UK only : Gymnastics - some demand for TV content
(W) UK only : Rifle - limited demand for TV content
(W) UL only : Lacrosse - some demand for TV content
(W) UL only : Field Hockey / Rowing - limited demand for TV content

#9 ESPN exerting undue influence to grow Louisville at the expense of Kentucky

ESPN, the ugly force behind Louisville in the ACC? LINK

“If it wasn’t for ESPN, we would be a fraction of what we are today,” - Tom Jurich, Louisville’s athletic director
This post was edited on 10/28/13 at 5:30 pm
Posted by Cheese Grits
Wherever I lay my hat is my home
Member since Apr 2012
60706 posts
Posted on 10/27/13 at 11:10 am to
Is it in the best interest of UK to decouple from UL to build up their football team by recruiting adjacent states by scheduling teams in UL's place?

- UL playing UK is a win - win for UL, but not a win - win for UK
- UL playing UK is a win - win for politicians in KY, but not a win - win for UK
- UL playing UK is a win - win for ESPN, but not a win - win for UK

If UK > UL, then UK should go with recruiting strategies outside of KY
If SEC > ACC, then UK should play games against the B1G teams to recruit against them instead of bolstering the Cards
If LEX > LOU, then UK should want new tourist dollars for sporting events to flow into the Lexington economy over the Louisville economy.
This post was edited on 10/28/13 at 5:40 pm
Posted by kywildcatfanone
Wildcat Country!
Member since Oct 2012
136200 posts
Posted on 10/27/13 at 11:16 am to
Not sure where you are going with this, but I always thought it was a mistake to end the football game with IU, always a winnable game for UK against a big10 opponent, and the recruiting that might result from it.
Seeing you have the state of Indiana at #20 and Kentucky at #31, it just makes sense.
Posted by Cheese Grits
Wherever I lay my hat is my home
Member since Apr 2012
60706 posts
Posted on 10/27/13 at 11:31 am to
quote:

a winnable game for UK against a big10 opponent, and the recruiting that might result from it.


You are in the right ball park but a bigger issue should emerge in the next part about doing what is best for both UK football and UK sports in general, and not in the interest of folks outside the UK sports family.
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