quote:
There are some NFL GMs that really believe in the number of starts you have in college correlates success in college. Guys like Leinart are reason why.

I assume you meant "success in pros"

Yeah, the number of starts metric was always held in high regard by people from the Parcells coaching tree. Folks have started going against that prevailing wisdom because the true junior declaration is far more common now than when Parcells was getting started with the Giants.

A lot of the wisdom in evaluating a QB in the draft process is flimsy...especially over the last decade the certainty people have had with certain QBs being good or bad has often been hilariously wrong.

My hot take is that the success of a drafted QB is mostly about the environment he enters. Hebert has been wildly successful but the core skill on the Chargers offense was much better than most rookie QBs enjoy. He struck me as a high bust potential quarterback but in the early days he's flourishing.

Some QBs fail because they're like Ryan Leaf or Johnny Manziel and have problems between the ears. Most fail because the team they're on is dogshit and the reason they arrived there was because the people managing it can only manage to make something dogshit. I think less fail due to a lack of NFL-level skill than you'd think...but this is just my hot take, I've got no metrics for you.

This post was edited on 2/1/21 at 10:58 am