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re: Breaking news: New saliva test approved. Game changer
Posted on 8/15/20 at 4:37 pm to TchPowDog
Posted on 8/15/20 at 4:37 pm to TchPowDog
quote:
uote:
Reports are it is high 80’s to low 90’s percent accurate. Back it up with a second sample and the accuracy rises to 99%.
That's not quite how Math/statistics works. Consult Bayes theorem.
What would you say the percentage of catching the disease is? For anyone, just in general, what is that percent chance?
I was referencing the original Twitter message. That's what it said. I'm no mathematician, but if the test is administered properly AND you get 2 of the same result, I think that would definitely approach 99% accuracy. I don't have the breakdown of false positive vs false negative to do an exact calculation but I would have to believe a double positive or negative would have to be highly accurate and predictive.
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Posted on 8/15/20 at 6:52 pm to phil4bama
quote:
I'm no mathematician, but if the test is administered properly AND you get 2 of the same result, I think that would definitely approach 99% accuracy.
No. Like I said, that's not how it works.
If the the test was 80% accurate and the chance of actually getting the virus was like 20%, then a second test of negative would be 80% accurate... Bayes theorem. Look it up, there's a formula.
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