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re: The college football season is about to be postponed.
Posted on 8/8/20 at 2:03 pm to Smalls
Posted on 8/8/20 at 2:03 pm to Smalls
quote:
Let's go with 0.25%. It's highly contagious, so, let's say without mitigation or interventions it infects 75% of the US population. At 0.25%, that's a little over 600k deaths.
The main problem is when the hospitals get overrun. In that case, you have additional deaths from people who would have been in the 99.75% that survive, but don't because they can't get treatment.
Hospitals aren't getting over run. Measures that would actually slow things down cause other deaths and issues.
Also, that 0.25% number is the overall. In order to get real projections you need to do it by age. People below the age of 60 it's much lower, like 0.001% or something like that. But then above the age of 60 it also gets higher and by the time you get above the age of 70 it goes above the 0.25%.
I recently read that almost half the deaths thus far have been people in nursing homes.
Posted on 8/8/20 at 2:09 pm to 3down10
quote:
Hospitals aren't getting over run.
Thankfully. A result of the economy slowing down due to the restrictions -- which sucks for everyone. IMO, we could probably run the economy in a phase 3 type of structure and keep hospital capacity manageable -- if people would just follow the guidelines.
quote:
In order to get real projections you need to do it by age.
I agree.
Posted on 8/8/20 at 2:21 pm to 3down10
quote:
Hospitals aren't getting over run.
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