re: Coronavirus MegaThread

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Look I hate BBBBQ as much as anyone else, but using UAMS modeling as a reasoning is a terrible reason.

UAMS modeling has been comically bad, and the newest forecast will be no different.

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I want to follow up on this because so many people take the UAMS models seriously.

Here were their predictions they made a month ago:




Hospitalizations are down 300 since Aug 15, they predicted progressively increasing hospitalizations.

Last week, daily cases varied by day, from 600-2,400. UAMS's model predicted 4,000+ new cases per day for the last week.

This was putrid modeling. This was bad, and they should feel bad. You would think they would learn their lesson from last year's modeling debacle.