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re: The IHME Model is Wrong
Posted on 4/30/20 at 4:21 pm to NoMansLand
Posted on 4/30/20 at 4:21 pm to NoMansLand
quote:
My opinion is wave 1 ((Feb-Jul) will take 80k lives. Wave 2 (Nov20–Feb21) MAY take 100k more. Agree if you believe we need to slowly open things up. Also believe that masks and social distancing are an integral part of our becoming normal.
I take this as the new normal. We NEED at this point to SLOWLY open things up. We also NEED to realize trade-offs.
I thought wave 1, as you call it, was going to be as high as 150k. You may have it about right.
My thinking at one time was that a subsequent wave would be way less deadly because far more people have been infected than we've been able to imagine, perhaps even so far back as December 2019.
That's where I remain a little hopeful, that when all the numbers shake out and the degree and effectiveness of immunity conferred by previous infection becomes known, this will end up being, for the future, a very bad flu.
It's problematic, but things absolutely must open up cautiously and intelligently. Not sure tattoo parlors should be high up on the list of essential services though.
Posted on 4/30/20 at 6:08 pm to Mr. Misanthrope
Your most recent post is very balanced. Everyone should want the economy back open while mitigating
health risks.
We will get there soon & the bickering can go back to which team (Bama) cheats the most or what team has the ugliest colors (Florida).
health risks.
We will get there soon & the bickering can go back to which team (Bama) cheats the most or what team has the ugliest colors (Florida).
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