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re: The IHME Model is Wrong
Posted on 4/30/20 at 1:47 pm to Mr. Misanthrope
Posted on 4/30/20 at 1:47 pm to Mr. Misanthrope
quote:
Whether it's more or less deadly than seasonal flu is an open question.
It’s definitely more deadly. 2 months (so far vs maybe a 6 month flu season). I edited the preposterous before you replied as I realized that was a quote & not your opinion.
My opinion is wave 1 ((Feb-Jul) will take 80k lives.
Wave 2 (Nov20–Feb21) MAY take 100k more. Agree if you believe we need to slowly open things up. Also believe that masks and social distancing are an integral part of our becoming normal.
I take this as the new normal. We NEED at this point to SLOWLY open things up. We also NEED to realize trade-offs.
This post was edited on 4/30/20 at 1:58 pm
1
Posted on 4/30/20 at 4:21 pm to NoMansLand
quote:
My opinion is wave 1 ((Feb-Jul) will take 80k lives. Wave 2 (Nov20–Feb21) MAY take 100k more. Agree if you believe we need to slowly open things up. Also believe that masks and social distancing are an integral part of our becoming normal.
I take this as the new normal. We NEED at this point to SLOWLY open things up. We also NEED to realize trade-offs.
I thought wave 1, as you call it, was going to be as high as 150k. You may have it about right.
My thinking at one time was that a subsequent wave would be way less deadly because far more people have been infected than we've been able to imagine, perhaps even so far back as December 2019.
That's where I remain a little hopeful, that when all the numbers shake out and the degree and effectiveness of immunity conferred by previous infection becomes known, this will end up being, for the future, a very bad flu.
It's problematic, but things absolutely must open up cautiously and intelligently. Not sure tattoo parlors should be high up on the list of essential services though.
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