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re: Insanity...
Posted on 3/13/20 at 10:12 am to The Spleen
Posted on 3/13/20 at 10:12 am to The Spleen
I have a A.S in biology degree from U.A and worked as a surgical tech from 19-21 until I switched to the tech field. I don't care at all what Trump says or any of the politics of the issue.
Now let's look at some studies recently published.
The New England Journal of Medicine wrote this on 02/28/2020
On the basis of a case definition requiring a diagnosis of pneumonia, the currently reported case fatality rate is approximately 2%.4 In another article in the Journal, Guan et al.5 report mortality of 1.4% among 1099 patients with laboratory-confirmed Covid-19; these patients had a wide spectrum of disease severity. If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.
The American College of Cardiology said this-
COVID-19 appears to have greater infectivity as compared with influenza, although these estimates are still evolving. Case mortality with COVID-19 is currently thought to be around 3.4%, higher in hypertensives, diabetics, patients with underlying cardiovascular disease, and the elderly. This is much higher than the 0.1% mortality with seasonal influenza, but is also likely a high estimate, as most studies to date have included more severe cases of the disease.
"The actual mortality rate may not be much higher (or higher) than flu where there is much better surveillance data available," says Scott Solomon, MD, FACC, from Brigham and Women's Hospital in Boston, one of the authors of ACC's Clinical Bulletin.
In conclusion I believe this will be like Ebola, Zika, H1N1, Avian Flu, etc. An exotic disease that while scary sounding will kill a fraction of the people that heart disease, the flu, will kill.
Now let's look at some studies recently published.
The New England Journal of Medicine wrote this on 02/28/2020
On the basis of a case definition requiring a diagnosis of pneumonia, the currently reported case fatality rate is approximately 2%.4 In another article in the Journal, Guan et al.5 report mortality of 1.4% among 1099 patients with laboratory-confirmed Covid-19; these patients had a wide spectrum of disease severity. If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.
The American College of Cardiology said this-
COVID-19 appears to have greater infectivity as compared with influenza, although these estimates are still evolving. Case mortality with COVID-19 is currently thought to be around 3.4%, higher in hypertensives, diabetics, patients with underlying cardiovascular disease, and the elderly. This is much higher than the 0.1% mortality with seasonal influenza, but is also likely a high estimate, as most studies to date have included more severe cases of the disease.
"The actual mortality rate may not be much higher (or higher) than flu where there is much better surveillance data available," says Scott Solomon, MD, FACC, from Brigham and Women's Hospital in Boston, one of the authors of ACC's Clinical Bulletin.
In conclusion I believe this will be like Ebola, Zika, H1N1, Avian Flu, etc. An exotic disease that while scary sounding will kill a fraction of the people that heart disease, the flu, will kill.
This post was edited on 3/13/20 at 10:46 am
1
Posted on 3/13/20 at 10:24 am to Capstone2017
quote:
In conclusion I believe this will be like Ebola, Zika, H1N1, Avian Flu, etc. An exotic disease that while scary sounding will kill a fraction of the people that heart disease, the flu, will kill.
While I don't disagree much with this, it confuses the issue. The issue is how rapidly this particular strain can spread, and the stress that rapid spread can put on healthcare systems. That is exactly what happened in Italy and doctors were forced to make decisions on which patients to treat and which ones to allow to die. Further, for healthy people it can either be asymptomatic or the symptoms mimic an everyday cold, so they have no idea they actually have it. It's also highly contagious so they can easily spread it to someone with a weakened immune system.
I also don't think it's fair to compare it to long known diseases and viruses. This is a new strain that just formed 4 or 5 months ago. While there are often new strains of the flu during flu season, they still generally respond to vaccines and flu medications. We're still at least a year away from a vaccine for this strain.
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