re: Man it sucks to be at the mercy of other folks,

quote:

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According to FPI for whatever that’s worth:

Wake over Clemson - 3%
Auburn over UGA - 52.6%
Iowa over MN - 60.8%
UCLA over Utah - 10.6%
Arizona over Oregon - 3.6%

So the ones we really need are the longest shots.

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#1 LSU, #2 OSU and #3 Clemson will most likely win out and stay ranked where they are now. The rest will all have one or more losses along with some close-call wins against meh opponents. We've dominated all of our opponents except LSU, and we actually outscored LSU 28-13 in the 2nd half. We already have the best loss (5 pts vs #1 LSU, with Tua playing injured). What we don't have is an impressive win.

That means Auburn over #4 UGA is the one we need most. If that happens we're probably in with a convincing road win over Auburn. Conference Champ is not as big of a factor as most people think it is -- because conferences are not equally difficult to win. Its only one of several tiebreaker factors between teams who are considered about equal based on resumés and eye test. Common opponent(s) is another tiebreaker factor. Auburn is a common opponent for Bama and Oregon.