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re: Predicting every SEC Teams schedule using ESPN's FPI Matchup Predictor
Posted on 8/9/19 at 9:03 am to AUFan2015
Posted on 8/9/19 at 9:03 am to AUFan2015
You know that’s not how statistics work? You’ve got to take all probabilities into consideration and factor that into a team’s chances using a cumulative probability distribution. Otherwise it’s flawed, ie, a team with 10 games to win at 51% would be considered undefeated in your model
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Posted on 8/9/19 at 1:41 pm to Arch Madness
Here's the methodology I used.
0-40% chance to win is considered a loss
40-60% chance is a toss up so I gave the team with the highest percentage the win
60%+ is considered a win in my opinion.
Again this is a just for fun thread mostly meant to encourage discussion on how each team will do this season.
Like I said to another poster who had an issue with this, the FPI predictor will change as the games get closer, and also there are things like upsets, injuries, team isn't as good as predicted or vice versa, etc. that will change the results; so right now a game that is a loss might turn into a win and vice versa.
0-40% chance to win is considered a loss
40-60% chance is a toss up so I gave the team with the highest percentage the win
60%+ is considered a win in my opinion.
Again this is a just for fun thread mostly meant to encourage discussion on how each team will do this season.
Like I said to another poster who had an issue with this, the FPI predictor will change as the games get closer, and also there are things like upsets, injuries, team isn't as good as predicted or vice versa, etc. that will change the results; so right now a game that is a loss might turn into a win and vice versa.
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