re: #6 Auburn (9-2) vs #1 Alabama (11-0) (-4.5) (O/U 47.5) - Prediction Model

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What model do you use? Or is this just your thoughts?

How did you arrive at the scores? Just an average what their respective scores this season?

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Compare Rush/Pass YPA to opponents averages for the year to get an average of how each team performs against opponents averages. Do that for Rush/Pass and both on defense. Compare offense and defense, average, calculate each teams yards per point and yards per point against. Figure out average number of plays and breakout run/pass.

Then it all pops out.

It's nothing proprietary, really, though I just kind of came up with it. It generally pops out a very similar score to Vegas/S&P. However, it gives a pretty good idea of areas where one team might do something we don't expect (State rushing the ball for decent YPA for one).